I. Event Trigger: How Tariff Policies "Strangle" Global Markets
1. Policy Impact and Market Crash
- US Stock Collapse: After Trump announced "reciprocal tariffs" on April 3rd, the three major US stock indices collectively plummeted, with the Dow dropping 5.5% in a single day, S&P 500 falling 5.97%, and the "Seven Sisters" tech stocks losing over $505 billion in market value;
- A-shares Follow Suit: On April 7th, A-shares' three major indices opened over 4% lower, with the ChiNext Index dropping 6.77%, and market panic spreading;
- Crypto Crash: Bitcoin fell below $83,000, Ethereum plunged 10%, and MEME coins on BSC chain generally halved;
2. Indiscriminate Global Asset Decline
- Commodity Market: WTI crude oil dropped below $60 per barrel, hitting a new low since 2021; Gold's safe-haven attribute temporarily failed, with spot gold falling below $3,000;
- Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Yen rose 1% due to safe-haven demand, while non-US currencies like Australian dollar and Euro collectively depreciated;
II. Deeper Logic: Trade War 2.0 and Market Pricing Reconstruction
1. History Repeating? The Ghost of Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act
- The 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act once triggered a global trade war, leading to the Great Depression. Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" now cover all trading partners, with tax rates reaching 49%, significantly increasing global supply chain disruption risks;
- Inflation Spiral Threat: 97% of US clothing and shoes depend on imports, with UBS estimating daily consumer goods prices may rise 10%-12%, hitting low-income households first;
2. China-US Game of "Triple Decoupling"
- Progressive Pressure in Trade-Technology-Finance: China Securities noted tariffs are just the beginning, with potential subsequent technology blockades (like AI chip export restrictions) and financial sanctions (delisting of Chinese concept stocks);
- China's Response Logic: China Securities analyzed that China has sufficient policy tools, with RRR cuts, consumption stimulus, and infrastructure investment potentially becoming the main hedging strategies, elevating the strategic importance of domestic demand;
3. Crypto's "De-risking Paradox"
- Bitcoin's correlation with traditional risk assets (like Nasdaq) rose to 0.5, losing its "digital gold" halo;
- Leveraged Liquidation Chain Reaction: High-leverage positions of MEME coins on BSC chain (like 20x) triggered batch liquidations after 5% price fluctuations, intensifying sell-offs;
III. Trend Prediction: Structural Opportunities in the Storm
1. Short-term Market Path
- Key Nodes: Tariffs officially take effect on April 9th, China's countermeasures land on April 10th; if negotiations don't restart, US stocks may drop another 5%-10%;
- Crypto Rebound Opportunity: If BTC stabilizes above $80,000, MEME coins might rebound on community momentum, but regulatory crackdowns should be cautioned;
2. Medium-Long Term Asset Allocation Logic
- Safe-haven Assets: Gold (target $3,100), Yen, and Treasury ETFs (like TLT) remain financial shelters;
- Counter-cyclical Tracks:
Consumption and Infrastructure: Under China's domestic demand policies, home appliance and building material leaders might benefit;
Technology Self-Reliance: Domestic chips (SMIC), AI large models (Baidu Wenxin) may see policy support and valuation recovery;
- Crypto Value Reconstruction:
RWA Track: Tokenized US Treasuries (like Ondo Finance), collateralized lending (Maple Finance) offer over 4% annual yields, attracting institutional investors;
Layer2 Technology Dividend: Ethereum Pectra upgrade may activate staking demand, with ARB, OP tokens potentially seeing 50% mid-term growth;
IV. Investor Strategies: Defense, Hedging, and Left-side Layout
1. Defensive Operations
- Reduce High-volatility Assets: Clear out MEME coins, tech stocks, maintain 20%-30% cash or stablecoins (USDC, DAI);
- Option Protection: Buy BTC put options (strike price $75,000), Nasdaq ETF put options (strike price 10% below current price);
2. Hedging and Arbitrage
- Cross-market Arbitrage: Long gold/short oil (historical volatility difference expanded to 30%), long Yen/short Australian dollar;
- A/H Shares Premium Convergence: Increase holdings of undervalued Hong Kong blue-chips (like Tencent, Meituan), betting on capital inflow;
3. Left-side Layout Opportunities
- Bitcoin Dollar-cost Averaging: Batch buying in $76,000-$82,000 range, long-term target $180,000 (Galaxy forecast);
- Policy-benefited Stocks: Environmental protection (carbon neutrality subsidies), military industry (geopolitical tensions) might counter-trend strengthen;
Conclusion: Finding Certainty in Uncertainty
The 2025 tariff storm is both the pain of globalization and an opportunity for asset revaluation. History proves that trade protectionism will ultimately backfire, while technological revolution and policy wisdom are key to breaking through. Investors should abandon "quick victory" fantasies, capture structural dividends in defense, and await dawn in the eye of the storm.
