Reading: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JSmI-YDvbdxXJ1Tud2sK8mly33zh1VmcH8i5wUgSYs0/edit?usp=sharing
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This market reminds me of the opening words of A Tale of Two Cities: It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way.
This is a market outlook (25.4.9) ⬇️
Even though the market has fallen so much, from an optimistic point of view, this is also a short- to medium-term bottom. For long-term holders, $BTC around 65k is a very good buying price. I plan to invest some $BTC at 65k.
The best strategy is definitely to do BTC, but I will also provide you with some Altcoin options.
1. DePAI
In fact, it is DePIN+AI. The core of this narrative is that "the robot narrative is in the brewing period of bubbles". The most amazing thing about it is that "there is no product at present". Selling dreams is sexier than selling products. Reality limits imagination, while blank space allows unlimited valuation.
This narrative has two directions:
The first is the traditional ones, similar to decentralized data and decentralized computing power projects, such as $GRASS $ATH. The focus here is on the cash flow income of these projects. The two I mentioned earlier both have income. Even if these income data are unconfirmed, they will leave the market with ample room for imagination until it is confirmed that the data is false. I will talk about this later when I talk about long-termism.
The second is robot narrative. The market is not very confident that a Web3 project will build a robot, but I think the DePin project, which aims to "provide services for Web2 robots", has great potential. For example, the Reborn project, its three products Reborn Hand, Reborn Life, and Reborn Work provide data for the training of various robot adoption scenarios. Other data infrastructures include $PEAQ, which has recently turned to integrate robot narrative into their project, and the growth is also very good. However, there is no clear leader in robot narrative yet. If you want to do it, it would be a good strategy to wait for the leader to come out (market mindshare growth), find the second leader, and find potential leaders in other ecosystems.
2. RWA and Stablecoins
We have talked about PayFi and yield-based stablecoins before. The yield-based stablecoin track is very competitive. After all the competition, the final winner is still $PENDLE. The recent price performance of $PENDLE is also very strong.
https://x.com/0xSleepinRain/status/1908452565379146162
As for PayFi, Morph is working on the consumer layer. I looked at Mantle's Q2 outlook, which also mentioned that it would do Web3 Banking, which is actually doing things related to PayFi (backed by Bybit). They also want to create a crypto asset index fund MI4 (Mantle Index Four). The asset allocation is: BTC (50%), ETH (26.5%), SOL (8.5%), stablecoins (15%) + native staking income (such as mETH, bbSOL).
https://group.mantle.xyz/zh/blog/announcements/letter-to-token-holders-q2-2025
RWA, a commonplace topic. The tokens that can be considered are $ONDO $PLUME . At present, both Ondo's market share and growth trend are going up. $PLUME has not yet launched mainnet, and there is no fundamentals to speak of. If you buy it now, you are buying the expectation of being on the mainnet. However, in this market situation, being on the mainnet is not a big positive. But you can keep an eye on it.
However, $ENA $CRV $ONDO have some problems with token allocation (the root cause of Curve’s problems comes from its founder), $PENDLE $PLUME are still better.
https://x.com/spotonchain/status/1909444089051070967
3. A call for long-termism
Will the Memecoin supercycle still exist? This is a question we all should ask ourselves. The memecoin hype has entered a recession, and market participants have lowered their expectations for the memecoin market value and the speed of wealth creation. In the current situation where liquidity is not abundant, this situation will become more serious.
In line with this are market participants’ calls for long-term projects.
This change is similar to "the market started to hype memecoin in protest against low circulation and high valuation projects". Now it has become "the market started to focus on projects that implement long-termism in protest against mindless hype of memecoin". The final result is that projects that implement long-termism and pseudo-long-termism will occupy the mainstream in the market mindshare.
The areas I am more optimistic about are:
Regarding the projects that implement long-termism, @xuxiaopengmint Mr. Xu has already given a very detailed introduction, so I will not go into details here.
https://research.mintventures.fund/2025/03/03/zh-sifting-for-gold-identifying-long-term-investment-targets-through-market-cycles-2025-edition-part-i/
https://research.mintventures.fund/2025/03/25/zh-sifting-for-gold-identifying-long-term-investment-targets-through-market-cycles-2025-edition-part-ii/
https://research.mintventures.fund/2025/04/03/zh-sifting-for-gold-identifying-long-term-investment-targets-through-market-cycles-2025-edition-part-iii/
I personally focus on projects with high circulation rates, projects with growth potential (such as InfoFi, @KaitoAI and @noise_xyz) and Hyperliquid. One of the cool things about Hyperliquid is that it has a good user retention rate. It should be the crypto project with the highest user retention rate after TGE.
4. Layer 1 & Layer 2
I talked about this once before, and the summary is: Layer2 tokens do not have a clear means of value capture, and token valuation has little to do with fundamentals. Layer1 is more likely to get a high valuation. Because Layer1 often has low circulation and high valuation during TGE, plus APY opportunities such as staking and LP can attract market buying, it is more likely to cause bubbles.
However, the market is a bit causal inversion now, and many applications are raising the market's valuation of their own tokens by announcing that they will build chains. However, this can only bring some short-term speculative buying, but cannot attract long-term holders.
Next, let’s briefly talk about the few Layer1s I’m looking at.
Berachain
I was too optimistic about Berachain. I always got myself into trouble when buying coins. $8-9 was actually a very good exit range, and I took 1/3 of the profit. But it turned out that the uncertainty of the market was too high at that time, and I should have taken all the profits. Now Berachain is in two dilemmas, the reverse flywheel of $BERA and the THJ incident.
The THJ incident is being gradually resolved. For details, please see @SmokeyTheBera's tweets and search the keyword THJ on Twitter. The reason for the reverse flywheel of $BERA is that it cannot pass the pressure level of $9 and the weakening demand for $BERA. To resolve it, market makers need to intervene and the market rebounds - the core here is that the Berachain team needs to boost the market's confidence in $BERA.
I am not considering cutting losses at the moment, but there is a high probability that I will gradually exit during the rebound.
Soinc is a points program, so it is less affected than $BERA during the decline of the market. But when the tokens are released later, I think the price of $S will also be greatly affected.
Another Layer1 that is doing incentives is Initia - VIP program. I have introduced it before, so I won’t go into details here. If you are interested, you can read my previous tweets ⬇️
https://x.com/0xSleepinRain/status/1895037110392103339
A few other interesting links⬇️
1. The Velocity (simply understood as turnover rate) of USDC on the Polygon PoS chain has increased a lot.
The reason for this growth may be: Stripe's integration with Polygon Rails.
https://x.com/0xPolygon/status/1902727832163246212
Another event is that Lens built a Layer2 by itself and left the Polygon.
2. The number of Kaia’s active addresses is growing significantly.
Currently, they have connected to Line and are attracting more users by building Miniapp, similar to the previous model of Ton.
3. MegaETH
Although MegaETH mentioned that there is no testnet incentive, it is still possible for the apps deployed on it to conduct retroactive airdrops for its early testnet participants. I think it is worth participating in the two projects, GTE and Cap Money.
5. Contract Exchange
There are many Perp exchanges that offer points, such as Ostium, Backpack, ZO, and Lighter. I am currently trying out these products one by one. I am currently trying out Ostium, and I bought OLP (Ostium) and ZLP (ZO).
Finally, let me talk about my future content plans:
1. A quick overview of some projects (similar to Noise's previous form), the project list includes: @SentientAGI @Mira_Network.
2. User experience of contract exchange.
3. Views on Bittensor $TAO
4. Track some interesting AI-related projects.
