Trading time: Global stock markets evaporate $10 trillion due to reciprocal tariffs, BTC stabilizes around $74,000

1. Market Observation

Keywords: Tariffs, ETH, BTC

U.S. President Trump's reciprocal tariff measures officially took effect today, with the trade war's impact quickly spreading to global financial markets. Ironically, Trump himself was not spared. Since launching the comprehensive tariff plan on April 3rd, his personal net worth has dropped from $4.7 billion to around $4.2 billion, primarily due to public and private stock holdings declining with the market. Globally, stock markets have evaporated approximately $10 trillion since Trump announced comprehensive tariffs. The Dow Jones plummeted over 2,000 points intraday, with tech giants like Apple and Microsoft seeing market capitalization evaporate over $5 trillion from their peaks. Fisher Investments founder Ken Fisher harshly criticized Trump's tariff policy on social platforms, calling it "stupid, wrong, and extreme". Notably, Euronext CEO Boujnah stated that some European investors have begun moving physical assets like gold from the U.S. to Europe, seeking safer havens.

In this market turbulence, the cryptocurrency market showed a unique trend. While Bitcoin dropped to $74,501 during "Black Monday" and touched $74,627 today, it seems to have formed a potential support level around $74,000. Crypto analysts Eugene and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes both established positions near $75,000, with Hayes predicting Bitcoin's market cap percentage will climb to 70%. Bernstein analysts noted that compared to historical 50-70% deep retracements, the current 26% decline indicates Bitcoin is gaining more resilient capital support. Additionally, Matrixport analysis pointed out that the USD/CNY exchange rate is approaching a critical technical resistance, potentially signaling an imminent rapid Bitcoin price increase. Standard Chartered Bank even predicted that XRP token price might rise to $12.50 before Trump leaves office.

On the regulatory front, the situation is becoming increasingly complex. To comply with Trump's digital asset executive order, the U.S. Department of Justice announced the dissolution of the department specifically handling cryptocurrency investigations. According to Fortune magazine, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is considering suing the Trump administration to block the new tariffs taking effect on Wednesday, with other groups potentially joining the lawsuit. Treasury Secretary Bessen stated they are discussing which regions to prioritize tariff agreements with, but White House officials have confirmed no tariff exemptions will be implemented in the near term, with reports indicating over 50 countries/regions seeking negotiations.

At the macroeconomic level, the situation is becoming increasingly severe. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers warned that Trump's tariff policies could lead to an economic recession, estimating around 2 million Americans might lose jobs, with each household facing at least $5,000 in income losses. Goldman Sachs strategy team warned that the current stock market sell-off might evolve into a longer cyclical bear market. The U.S. bond market experienced a violent sell-off, with 10-year Treasury yields surging to 4.503% and 30-year yields breaking 5.010%. Wall Street titans, including Bill Ackman, Daniel Loeb, and Jim Chanos, collectively voiced concerns that Trump's latest tariff policy contains serious calculation errors, amplifying other countries' tariff levels fourfold. However, Fisher provided a relatively optimistic perspective, believing the market might be overreacting, citing that the 1998 stock market experienced similar adjustments yet still achieved a 26% return that year.

2. Key Data (as of April 9th, 13:30 HKT)