The crypto market re-emerges "Black Monday": More than 480,000 people's positions are liquidated. When will the tariff haze end?

The impact of reciprocal tariffs is more intense than expected. On Monday, global financial markets experienced a massive shock. The three major U.S. stock indices continued their steep decline, with European and Asian stock markets plummeting. Commodity markets were not spared, with oil and gold falling simultaneously. Cryptocurrencies also failed to show resilience, with Bitcoin dropping over 10% in two days and Ethereum plummeting 20%, painting a "sea of green" across global financial markets. Trump remained calm about this, describing the current market reaction as "taking medicine when sick," but is this truly a cure or a desperate measure? The market's recovery and the looming dark clouds hanging over global markets remain uncertain. On April 2nd, U.S. President Trump signed two executive orders regarding "reciprocal tariffs" at the White House, announcing a 10% "minimum baseline tariff" on trade partners and higher tariffs on certain partners, officially launching the reciprocal tariff era. While initially seen as a negotiation tactic, Trump's underlying greedy ambitions are now becoming clearer, and the cost has been substantial. Following the reciprocal tariffs, China swiftly countered. The Tariff Commission, Ministry of Commerce, and General Administration of Customs successively issued multiple countermeasures against the U.S., announcing a 34% additional tariff on imported goods from the U.S. starting from 12:01 PM on April 10th, signaling the beginning of a global trade war. On April 7th, the reciprocal tariff crisis escalated, with global financial markets experiencing an epic plunge. U.S. stock futures continued last week's steep decline, with NASDAQ futures dropping over 5% and S&P 500 futures falling over 4%. The market value lost in two trading days was roughly equivalent to the combined 2024 GDP of Germany and South Korea. The crypto market also faced a bloodbath, with Bitcoin dropping over 10% and briefly falling below $75,000. Altcoins collapsed entirely, with Ethereum falling below $1,500 and SOL dropping to $100. According to Coinglass data, 487,700 global liquidations occurred, totaling over $1.632 billion, with long positions liquidating $1.25 billion and short positions $380 million. Global confidence has plummeted, with panic emotions surging and U.S. recession becoming the center of public discourse. The article continues to discuss the potential economic impacts, global reactions, and market expectations in detail.

A false news report can also confirm this conclusion. Last night, CNBC reported that Trump is considering a 90-day tariff suspension. After this news, all stock indices quickly recovered within seven minutes, and Bitcoin rebounded to $80,000. Even after White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt called it "fake news," the upward trend receded, but the market did not experience further significant declines, initially showing some bottom characteristics. In this regard, the global financial market may rebound today.

The crypto market has shown a similar trend. Although the crypto market has fully recovered, with Bitcoin returning to $80,000, the Altcoin market remains brutal. Ethereum has again risen above $1,500, and SOL has rebounded to $110. From yesterday's trading data, most holders maintain a wait-and-see attitude, and trading volume is not high, with risk aversion seeming to outweigh selling pressure. In this context, if tariffs can be negotiated, asset stabilization and upward movement become a high probability event. After all, the seven-minute rebound already shows funds' interest in the golden pit. However, whether a true reversal can be completed still depends on watching recession and rate cuts, with the Federal Reserve's market rescue being the core.

But regarding future market direction, traders' views differ significantly. @AnnaEconomist believes this sell-off still has downward potential, reasoning that there's a lack of "Federal Reserve backstop" or "Trump backstop" possibilities. She believes the Fed values hard data, and Powell cares about his historical positioning, so the Fed won't easily rescue the market and must wait for more definitive inflation signals. @Cato_CryptoM thinks Trump's reciprocal tariffs' final version is on the 9th, so before that, it's more of a negotiation period. It's too early to define the overall tariff extent and economic impact, and premature to define whether Trump will be impeached. The Kobeissi Letter analyzes that if no trade agreement is reached between the US and China by April 9th, market sentiment might collapse again. Market sentiment is polarized, with panic levels reaching March 2020 levels, meaning more volatility is expected.

Technical traders seem more pessimistic. @market_beggar indicates a downward large-scale trend, and @YSI_crypto agrees that a slow rebound in a downward trend will only lead to more violent sell-offs, suggesting Bitcoin prices might reach $66,000-$72,000. Currently, according to Coinglass data, mainstream CEX and DEX funding rates show the market is comprehensively bearish.

Given the current situation, April 9th is imminent, and reaching a complex agreement in a short time seems unlikely. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also stated that a trade agreement is unlikely before April 9th. However, the US is not entirely unified. Besides Musk, Trump's right-hand man, discouraging reciprocal tariffs, Republican members are also being urged by donors to advise the president, though Trump still maintains a very resolute attitude.

In this context, the Federal Reserve is facing both internal and external pressures. Goolsbee remains calm, and Fed policymakers are feeling anxious. This Thursday, the Fed will publish the March monetary policy meeting minutes, which may provide more clues. Whether the market will experience another roller coaster remains to be seen.