The global financial markets are being swept by an unexpected cold wave.
After Trump's extreme policy of imposing "reciprocal tariffs" on almost all trading partners, the panic in global capital markets reached its peak:
On April 7, by 10 PM Eastern Time, S&P 500 futures fell 5.98%, Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 6.2%, and Dow Jones futures declined 5.5%.
Asian markets were even more filled with risk-averse sentiment, with the Nikkei index falling as much as 8.9% in early trading. The Taiwan Weighted Index plummeted nearly 10% after two days of holidays, with circuit breakers triggered for major stocks like TSMC and Foxconn.
The crypto market was not spared either.
Investors watched their assets shrink, with red lines on crypto trading screens like an alarm, signaling a larger turbulence.
Data from CoinGlass shows that cryptocurrency liquidations have surged to around $892 million, including over $300 million in BTC long and short positions.
BTC has dropped to around $77,000, while ETH has fallen to $1,500.
The trade war's trumpet has sounded again, with Trump's senior trade advisor Peter Navarro standing at the center of the storm.
On April 6, Navarro appeared in a Fox News interview.
He tried to calm investor emotions with a laughable linguistic art:
"The first principle, especially for small investors, is - unless you sell your stocks now, you won't lose money. The wise strategy is not to panic and hold steady".
Unrealized losses are not losses; if you haven't sold, you haven't lost.
It's hard to imagine such an ineffective consolation, close to a mental victory, coming from a senior presidential trade advisor and university economics professor.
This statement clearly failed to calm market anxiety and instead focused attention on him - this Harvard PhD, dubbed a "non-mainstream economist" by outsiders, who seems not just a policy spokesperson but an unavoidable driving force behind extreme trade protectionism.
Even Musk, who was close to President Trump, recently publicly criticized and subtly mocked this presidential advisor on social media, directly stating that "getting a Harvard economics PhD is not a good thing and might lead to decision-making errors due to excessive self-confidence"; he also questioned whether Navarro had ever created any substantive results.
Who exactly is this economist standing behind Trump? How did he drive this global tariff policy storm?
From the academic margins to the White House's decision-making core, Navarro's life intersecting with Trump's protectionist ideology may have jointly brewed this crisis.
A Marginal Figure from Academia to Politics
Peter Navarro's story begins on July 15, 1959, in an ordinary family in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
His father, Albert "Al" Navarro, was a saxophone and clarinet player, and his mother, Evelyn Little John, was a secretary on Fifth Avenue.
However, this family time was brief and turbulent, with his parents divorcing when he was 9 or 10, leaving Navarro to move between Palm Beach, Florida, and Bethesda, Maryland, with his mother.
The experience of growing up in a single-parent family may have planted seeds of desire for stability and self-reliance in his heart, quietly sprouting when he completed his education at Bethesda-Chevy Chase High School in Maryland.
In 1972, with an academic scholarship, Navarro entered Tufts University and earned his bachelor's degree. The same year, he joined the Peace Corps and served in Thailand for three years. This experience gave him his first exposure to the complexity of international society, possibly laying the groundwork for his later focus on global trade imbalances.
In 1979, he obtained a Master's in Public Administration from Harvard University, and in 1986, he earned his doctorate under the guidance of economic titan Richard E. Caves. With his degree in hand, he chose to remain in academia, serving as a professor of economics and public policy at UC Irvine from 1989, becoming an emeritus professor after decades.
However, Navarro was not content to remain in his study. He ventured into politics five times, attempting to put his ideas into practice.
In 1992, he ran for San Diego mayor, leading the primary with 38.2% of the vote but narrowly losing the final election with 48%; subsequently, he ran for city council, county supervisor, and congressional seats, all unsuccessfully - getting 41.9% in the 1996 congressional election and only 7.85% in the 2001 city council special election. These failures did not deter him but instead highlighted his persistence and marginalized nature.
He repeatedly emphasized economic protectionism and employment priority in his campaigns, echoing Trump's "America First" approach, yet failing to win voter support at the time.
From a single-parent family youth to a Harvard economics PhD, and then to a repeatedly defeated political marginal figure, Navarro's trajectory is full of contradictions.
He appears to be both a rigorous scholar and a radical activist; both leaving his mark in academia and experiencing setbacks in politics.
In his back-and-forth between academic and political circles, trade protectionism and a hard stance towards China seemed to have been seeded early on.
The China Threat Theory, Long Traceable
From the moment Peter Navarro obtained his economics PhD from Harvard, he was destined not to be satisfied with the tranquility of the ivory tower.
His subsequent trajectory shows that this new PhD had developed a strong interest in the global economic landscape.
In 1989, when he joined UC Irvine, he began transforming his academic passion into sharp-tongued criticism. His target was directly aimed at a rising power - China.
What truly made him notable was a series of works propagating the China threat theory.
In 2006, he published "The Coming China Wars", warning with an almost prophetic tone that China's economic expansion was not just commercial competition but a survival threat to US manufacturing.
The book revealed an almost biased stubbornness, such as "China's development is a threat to humanity that will bring more conflicts and instability to the world".
At the time, Amazon reader reviews mostly considered the book to have deliberate hype and sensationalism.
While the book did not generate widespread resonance in mainstream economic circles, it did create ripples in some conservative circles.
Five years later, 2011's "Death by China" pushed Navarro's criticism to its peak. This book was not just an academic analysis but more like an indictment.
He radically accused China of systematically destroying the foundations of the US economy through illegal export subsidies, production subsidies, currency manipulation, and intellectual property theft...
However, Navarro's views were not without controversy.
Mainstream economists, such as Simon Johnson from MIT, have openly criticized his analysis as "too one-sided, ignoring the complexity of global supply chains"; Navarro's harsh wording in the book, in stark contrast to the typically refined academic image, also earned him the label of an "outlier" in the economics community.
However, Navarro built a trade confrontation theory targeting China over more than a decade of academic accumulation, arguing that the United States must use tough measures to reverse trade deficits and protect domestic industries. This theory laid the groundwork for his later entry into Trump's decision-making circle.
His pen had long been pointed at China, and fate would open an even larger door for him in 2016.
Supported by Trump's Son-in-law, Entering the Core Circle
The book "Death by China" did not create waves in the mainstream economics community but unexpectedly knocked on Trump's campaign team's door.
According to reports, during Trump's first campaign before his first term in 2016, his son-in-law Jared Kushner accidentally discovered the book on Amazon and was attracted by its sharp criticism of China's trade practices, immediately recommending it to Donald Trump.
Trump was greatly impressed after reading it, directly saying: "This guy understands my thoughts."
Navarro later recalled that his role from the beginning was to "provide analytical support for Trump's trade intuition". Coming from a business background, Trump was well-versed in trade, and their thoughts might have coincidentally aligned at a fundamental level.
On January 20, 2017, the same day Trump was sworn in, Navarro officially entered the White House as the director of the newly established National Trade Council.
His first task was unsurprisingly focused on China. He quickly promoted a proposal to impose 43% tariffs on Chinese goods and led the policy of imposing a 25% additional tax on steel and aluminum imports.
When the China-US trade war broke out in full swing in 2018, Navarro was everywhere. At White House press briefings, he declared: "China must pay for its unfair trade practices."
That year, he also helped draft Trump's tariff order on global steel and aluminum imports, directly leading to trade friction with the EU and Canada. Navarro's toughness not only catered to Trump's "America First" approach but also helped him establish a firm footing in the White House.
However, Navarro's days in the core circle were not smooth sailing.
In 2020, he issued a report alleging election fraud and participated in the "Green Bay Sweep" plan on January 6, 2021, ultimately being sentenced to 4 months in prison for contempt of Congress in 2023. Despite this, Trump's trust in him did not diminish, even calling him a "loyal warrior" while in prison.
On January 20, 2025, Trump returned to the White House, and Navarro also returned as a senior trade and manufacturing advisor. This time, his goals were even more aggressive.
In February, he co-led tariff economic discussions with Stephen Miller targeting Canada, China, and Mexico, driving the trade policy memorandum signed by Trump on his first day.
Navarro's "reciprocal tariff" plan—calculating additional tax rates based on trade deficits, such as 46% for Vietnam and 20% for the EU—became the cornerstone of the new policy. In a CNBC interview, he defended: "These are not negotiation chips, but necessities of a national emergency."
This stance is consistent with his academic arguments from over a decade ago.
From a book in 2016 to the brain behind the trade war in 2025, Navarro's connection with Trump was no coincidence.
His protectionist ideas perfectly matched Trump's hatred of trade deficits, and his tough character perfectly aligned with Trump's policy style.
Despite being surrounded by controversy and even imprisoned, Navarro has always been the soul of Trump's trade strategy. He moved from the academic margins to the center of power, driven not just by luck, but by his obsession with trade confrontation.
The Superior Strategy is to Attack Plans, the Inferior to Attack Cities
The convergence of Trump and Navarro is about to face its most severe test in the global market in 2025.
Returning to Navarro's initial statement, "Not selling stocks means no losses", does this non-mainstream economist truly understand the dynamics of economic operations?
Navarro might be well-versed in tariff data but seems to have missed the essence of military strategy.
Sun Tzu's Art of War states: "The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting. The next best is to attack strategic plans, then attack alliances, then attack troops, and the worst is to attack cities."
The wisdom of our ancestors is to win through strategy and diplomacy, not direct confrontation.
However, Navarro and Trump's tariff declaration is precisely the opposite—choosing direct conflict and exchanging a high economic cost for so-called "fairness".
This hard-hitting approach not only failed to weaken the opponent but also put American businesses and consumers at the forefront. Economists estimate that 60% of tariffs on China will drive up import prices, ultimately paid by American citizens.
Reality is far from theoretical.
Dragging the global economy into chaos. His role as a driving force is undeniable, but whether the cost of this war is worth it remains unknown.
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