Author: shushu, BlockBeats
Today's financial market is a global scene of despair, whether it's the "medication" meme or the "gold pit", participants in the stock and crypto markets are witnessing the opening of an already chaotic era.
Related reading: 《Global Stock Markets Face Worst 3-Day Performance in 50 Years, Can the Crypto Market Withstand It?》
The Federal Reserve hesitates to cut rates, with market speculation about its lost "backstop" ability, while Trump's tariff negotiations tear market confidence, intensifying external uncertainty. Meanwhile, the crypto market continues to explore downward under dual pressure from technical and sentiment aspects, with multiple key support levels in critical danger. This article comprehensively analyzes macro, policy, market data, and technical perspectives, summarizing traders' observations of the current market for readers' reference.
[The rest of the translation follows the same professional and accurate approach, maintaining the original structure and meaning while translating into clear English.]Trump's current actions seem like a high-stakes gamble, and once he wins the bet, support will naturally come, with "defecting" Republican members returning, and impeachment might just be a short-term danger signal that may not actually proceed to the impeachment process.
If the bet is lost, it will naturally become a mess. Even if he is impeached, who can turn the tide? Facing this mess, don't expect the Democratic Party to take over and shoulder the blame. I estimate that at this stage, even the Democratic Party would not want to take over, as it's a hot potato that might be hard to catch.
So, we can only see if Lady Luck stands on Trump's side in the end.
Currently, negotiations are still ongoing, so before the 9th, we can only discuss from multiple angles. Maybe while we're discussing passionately, they might reach an agreement over there, with tariffs unexpectedly lowered, and everything becomes peaceful?
BTC dropped 5.5%, ETH dropped over 10%.
No clear negative news, low trading volume, not like an institutional sell-off, more like short-term risk aversion.
It might be the release of expected sentiment for Monday's European and American tariff retaliation. No panic seen on-chain, structure not broken, with more selling from exchange inventory.
If US stock futures continue to weaken tonight, Asian markets might continue the panic, but as long as there's no economic recession, I believe 70K remains a reasonable support.
I will continue to buy the dips this round, but with a small position and caution, waiting for tariffs to land and GDP data before deciding to increase position.
When there's no reason for the decline, it's actually most worth paying attention to.
Technical Analysis
Latest trend update for crypto total market value:
It has now broken through the dotted trend line on the weekly chart. If this break is confirmed, the next reasonable support is at $1.91 trillion,
Where the red bull market trend line and long-term trend line intersect (both are diagonal supports).
Of course, it might further explore down to $1.61 trillion (possibly just a wick, but honestly uncertain). If it truly reaches this level, the market's pain would be unimaginable, so please be prepared in advance... Incidentally, if this happens, the potential bottom time might be in April.
I've already started placing buy the dips orders for some Altcoins at levels far below the current price. Additionally, this candle still has nearly 5 hours before closing, so I'm still observing.
Take it step by step, see what happens.
Actually, this weekend is no different from previous weekends, even the weekend of February 3rd, with Altcoins slowly declining on Saturday and Sunday, small turn to big crash on Sunday night, dropping until Monday afternoon-evening stabilization.
Slow rebound in a downward trend will only lead to more violent selling later.
66-72k, who agrees? Who opposes?
Recently maintaining a bearish view, the 72K-66K mentioned two days ago is about to arrive. At that time, I'll look at the rebound situation and decide whether to long.
Black Monday: BTC catch-up drop
ETH lost 1600, Taiwan and Japanese stocks triggered circuit breakers, we witnessed history once again.
I know such a decline is psychologically difficult for most people. This article will focus on BTC, analyzing from on-chain data perspective, directly organizing previously mentioned important levels for reference.
First, the "deviation-adjusted STH-RP" model, currently:
Green line = 77,156
Blue line = 67,554
And 71K ~ 79K is still a relative vacuum area in URPD, so from on-chain data perspective, I personally prefer to wait for positions below 71K.
Due to the larger trend being downward, any long operations will be seen by me as "counter-trend operations". I'm not sure how many readers can understand my meaning, but this is the market's path of least resistance.
I know most people prefer to try trading waves, but counter-trend operations are indeed one of the most common mistakes for retail investors, which is a lesson I learned years ago as a novice, hoping everyone can take heed.
Trading is a process of "cognitive monetization". When market difficulty obviously increases, "not operating" is also an operation.
There's no need to chase every small-scale wave. The smaller the scale, the more price movement will resemble Brownian motion. Focus on the big trend, stay in the strike zone, and leave the rest to patience and discipline.
The smoke of 2025's chaos has already risen, and you and I are witnesses to history.
