How to get rich in the age of populism?

Hoard gold for stability, hold Bitcoin for appreciation.

Written by: Tulip King, Messari Analyst

Translated by: Luffy, Foresight News

Alpha First:

• Maximize your human capital: Find a high-paying job and work hard. Today, your career is the best defense against inflation.
• Shift assets from traditional finance to uncorrelated alternative assets. The stock market may remain flat or decline for decades.
• Hoard gold for stability, hold Bitcoin for appreciation. In an era of deglobalization and financial repression, both will outperform the market.

The legendary bull market has ended

We have just experienced the longest bull market in history, from the ruins of World War II to Donald Trump's potential 2024 victory. This epic bull market created generations of passive investors who became accustomed to believing that "nothing will happen" and "markets only go up". Unfortunately, good times are over, and many are about to be severely impacted. The structural tailwinds that drove decades of prosperity are not just stalling but rapidly reversing. The populist revolution has arrived, and it will make labor great again at the expense of capital.

Taking Apple Inc. as an example. In the fourth quarter of 2024, Apple's price-to-earnings ratio is around 40, with a gross profit margin of about 46%. This means that if Apple's revenue per share is around $100, profit per share is about $46, and the stock price is approximately $1,960.

Now, assume they must reshore production and labor to the United States. Due to lower domestic production efficiency, their profit margins will be compressed. The gross profit margin drops to 20%, and in a high-interest-rate environment, the market will no longer accept such an aggressive price-to-earnings ratio, so it drops to 25 (still above the historical average). Assuming that over the next decade, Apple remains an excellent company and manages to double its revenue. By 2035, their revenue per share will be around $200, but profit per share will only be $40, with a stock price of $1,000.

This is how financial assets can enter a long-term bear market (over 10 years) while the company continues to be profitable and raise employee salaries. Even with business growth and wage increases, the stock price may actually drop by 50%.

This is not a hypothetical scenario, but what actually happened in Japan after 1989. That year, the Nikkei index reached nearly 40,000 points before crashing. 36 years later, it still has not fully recovered. If you bought Japanese stocks at the peak and held them for a generation, you would still be at a loss in real value. This occurs when a financialized economy built on loose monetary policy and globalization must adapt to new realities.

U.S. financial assets can easily fall into a "lost decade" (or even two decades). The passive investment strategy that worked for the Baby Boomer generation may bring dismal returns for the next generation. For index fund believers, this will be a nightmare.

So, who are the losers?

This is a useful reference for how much the Baby Boomer generation has benefited from the global political plan

At this point, you might wonder who will be the unfortunate ones in the new political and economic landscape, primarily two groups:

• High-profit-margin large companies. Those companies that have enjoyed the dividends of globalization (outsourcing production, optimizing global supply chains, paying extremely low wages) face painful adjustments. Reshoring means increased costs, labor scarcity means wage increases, and tariffs mean higher input costs. All of these compress their previously extremely high profit margins. They will still be profitable, but with reduced profits, and investors will give lower valuations for these reduced profits.
• Baby Boomers too old to benefit from wage growth. The real victims are retirees and those about to retire, who have rich assets but meager income. After decades of policy catering to their interests, the Baby Boomer generation's advantage has ended. They have exited the labor market, so wage increases do not help them. Their retirement accounts are heavily invested in stocks and bonds, which may stagnate or decline for years. Meanwhile, inflation erodes their fixed income. It's a triple hit: asset decline, rising costs, and inability to earn more income.

This is not just an economic issue, but a matter of intergenerational fairness. The Baby Boomer generation enjoyed the fruits of post-World War II prosperity, buying properties at low prices, watching their stocks rise 10% annually for decades, and then pulling up the ladder. Now, when they try to cash in these returns, they will find fewer buyers. The large-scale intergenerational wealth transfer many expected may not be as abundant as imagined.

So, who are the winners?

In this new paradigm, the winners are obvious:

• Labor, especially blue-collar workers. Electricians, plumbers, welders, mechanics, construction workers - anyone who makes or repairs physical items is poised to gain huge benefits. These jobs cannot be outsourced, are crucial for reindustrialization, and face reduced labor competition. For these workers, the era of wage stagnation has ended. They will earn high wages and regain social status.
• Young people entering the workforce. If you're just twenty years old, this transformation is advantageous. During your career, you will earn higher wages. After asset prices fall, you will ultimately buy assets (housing, stocks) at more reasonable valuations. You have decades to earn money and benefit from a pro-labor environment. This is much better than entering the workforce in 2010, when wages were stagnant but assets were already expensive.
• Those holding uncorrelated assets like Bitcoin and gold. As financial repression intensifies and traditional assets struggle, alternative assets outside the system become increasingly attractive. Gold has been a classic inflation hedge and safe haven for thousands of years. Central banks worldwide are hoarding gold at record speeds. Bitcoin, as digital gold, provides a similar role with greater upside potential. Both can thrive in environments of financial instability, currency devaluation, and geopolitical tension.

Central banks are buying large amounts of gold

Regarding Bitcoin, one point must be clear: it was created precisely for moments like this, when trust in traditional financial institutions wavers and governments take increasingly desperate measures to manage debt. When everything else is devaluing, Bitcoin's fixed supply becomes extremely attractive. I anticipate Bitcoin will ultimately reach $1 million, but you need patience. This is not a get-rich-quick trade.

New Economic Order

We are witnessing a historic turning point: the end of the neoliberal globalist order and the rise of populist nationalism. This is not a minor policy adjustment, but a fundamental reshuffling of economic winners and losers.

For decades, capital dominated labor, financial assets outperformed wages, and Wall Street dictated to Washington. That era has ended, and we are entering a period where labor regains influence, wage growth exceeds asset returns, and economic policies prioritize workers over investors.

This transformation will not be smooth, markets will experience violent drops, and inflation will persist longer than most expect. As countries prioritize their interests over global cooperation, geopolitical tensions will intensify.

But within this turbulence lies opportunity. Focus on learning skills that can earn high wages in the new economy, shift from overvalued financial assets to uncorrelated alternative assets. Prepare for a world where wage checks, not investment portfolios, are the primary wealth accumulation tool.

The populist revolution will not only change politics but rewrite economic rules. Those who recognize this transformation early and position themselves accordingly will reap rewards. Those clinging to old strategies will struggle. This is not the end of prosperity, but its redistribution.