Original | Odaily (@OdailyChina）
Author | Wenser (@wenser 2010）
As the Trump administration officially launched the "tariff trade war", both the US stock market and cryptocurrency market suffered devastating blows.
In the past week, the US stock market value evaporated by over $6 trillion, including more than $1.5 trillion from the "US stock seven giants" like Apple and Google. The crypto market also performed poorly, after nearly a month of oscillating market conditions, the plunge, though delayed, finally arrived - BTC once again fell below $80,000, dropping to a low of $77,000; ETH dropped to a low of $1,540, creating a new low since October 2023; the total crypto market value dropped to $2.6 trillion, with a decline of over 9% in the past 24 hours.
Odaily will organize the market situation and main viewpoints in this article for readers' reference.
Macro Cause: Trump Administration Launches "Tariff Trade War", BTC's Safe-Haven Attribute Ineffective in Short Term
[The rest of the translation follows the same professional and accurate approach, maintaining the original meaning while translating to English.]Optimistic Dip Buyers
Last Friday, when BTC price was still hovering around $83,000, David Hernandez, a crypto investment expert from digital asset management company 21 Shares, stated that Bitcoin demonstrated impressive resilience, quickly rebounding after briefly dropping below $82,000, consolidating its position as a hedging tool during macroeconomic pressure. If this decoupling continues, it may signal that BTC will become increasingly attractive to institutional investors seeking to avoid volatile stock markets.
According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, Web3 development team 7 Siblings purchased 25,102 ETH within the past 10 hours, spending $42.66 million (approximately $1,700 per ETH). Currently, they hold over 660,000 ETH, with a total value of $1.037 billion. Additionally, 7 Siblings borrowed $412 million by pledging ETH across multiple lending protocols, maintaining healthy lending positions with liquidation prices all below $1,100.
Real Vision's chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts stated that the continuously growing money supply might push Bitcoin's price above $132,000 by the end of 2025.
Pessimistic Short Sellers
Greek.live macro researcher Adam released a community brief, pointing out that the community generally holds a bearish sentiment, with most traders expecting price declines in the coming weeks, primarily influenced by macro concerns centered on Trump's tariffs. Key Bitcoin price monitoring levels include $80,000 as an immediate support, with bearish targets extending to $40,000, with only a few isolated bullish voices suggesting a potential reach of $100,000 in the coming months.
Traders believe that tariffs have already destroyed market trust, and even if tariffs are reduced before the April 9th deadline, the damage to trade relations has been done.
CryptoQuant's founder and CEO Ki Young Ju suggested that the Bitcoin bull market cycle might have ended. He explained that a bull market is driven by small capital pushing prices up, while a bear market occurs when even large capital cannot drive price increases. Current data clearly points to the latter, with capital entering the market but prices not responding—a typical bear market characteristic. Selling pressure may be relieved at any time, but historically, a true reversal requires at least six months—thus a short-term rebound seems unlikely.
Mechanism Capital partner Andrew Kang wrote that without closely following cryptocurrencies in recent months, ETH's potential return to the $1,000-1,500 range this year seems high. With speculative fervor clearly past, a market cap of $215 billion for a growth/profit-negative asset seems absurd, making the bear market argument valid.
Turning Point: Monetary Quantitative Easing vs. Trump's Potential Policy Adjustment
For potential market turnaround, hopes can only be pinned on macro-level quantitative easing policies and whether Trump cares about mid-term election campaigns to adjust corresponding policies.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes previously wrote: "Trump's tariff plan further proves his commitment to reversing these imbalances. For US Treasury bonds, the issue is that without dollar exports, foreign investors cannot purchase bonds. The Federal Reserve and banking system must accelerate to ensure normal Treasury market operations, which means restarting loose monetary policy (Brrrr)."
Moreover, he previously stated that BTC holders need to learn to love tariffs, and perhaps we have ultimately broken the correlation with NASDAQ and can become the purest fiat liquidity "smoke alarm".
Ark Invest founder and CEO Cathie Wood warned that Trump's new tariffs might push the US economy into recession. Discussing the uncertainty brought by these measures, she said: "The market is in considerable turmoil."
She warned that these policies might cause a US recession, saying: "We know how he calculates reciprocal tariffs, but this seems meaningless. We are at the storm's center. However, if Trump cares about his political legacy—we know he does—or cares about the mid-term election campaign season starting this fall, the final stage of this rolling recession will give him and the Federal Reserve more freedom to adjust policies."
