A notable tariff policy was announced by US President Trump on Thursday at 4 AM Beijing time after US stock market closing, revealing a large-scale and market-exceeding tariff plan. He announced a 10% benchmark tariff on global trade partners and higher "reciprocal tariffs" for certain partners, with China being the first target at [34%], and Vietnam also being a key focus at [46%].
The benchmark tariff rate of [10%] will take effect on April 5th, with reciprocal tariffs to be implemented at 4 AM on April 9th. Excluding pharmaceuticals, the tariffs will not apply to copper, semiconductors, timber, precious metals like gold and silver, energy, and specific mineral resources unavailable within the US. The White House stated that tariffs on China will be added on top of the existing 20% import tariffs, meaning the total tariff rate for China will be 54%.
As the market originally expected a more moderate tariff policy from Trump, the surprisingly aggressive result caused US stock futures to collectively plummet. Dow futures dropped over 1,100 points, S&P 500 futures fell nearly 4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures declined nearly 3.68% at the time of writing.
In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin quickly surged $1,500 to $88,500 after hearing about the 10% global benchmark tax rate, but then rapidly dropped to $82,137 due to the higher "reciprocal tariffs", falling over 7% in four hours. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was priced at $83,664, down approximately 1.15% in the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin 4-hour chart
The current price is fluctuating between the Bollinger middle band (83,500) and upper band (86,656), under pressure from the middle band. If it breaks below the middle band, it may test the lower band (81,194). If the price breaks through 85,500, it may continue rising to the 88,000-89,000 range. Currently, the K and D line values are at low levels, while the J line value is near the oversold area, which might indicate an imminent market rebound. However, the KDJ indicator has not formed a clear golden cross, so market stabilization signals need close monitoring. The DIF and DEA lines are running below the 0-axis, indicating weakening upward momentum. The MACD red histogram is shortening, suggesting a potential market reversal. If the DIF line crosses below the DEA line forming a death cross, it could trigger a new round of decline, with support levels at 82,000-81,000. If the red histogram expands again and the DIF line breaks through the DEA line, the market might continue to rise.
Bitcoin 1-hour chart
Bitcoin's price is currently between the Bollinger lower and middle bands, recovering after a recent decline. The upper band resistance is around 87,606, with lower band support at 81,568. If the price breaks through the middle band (84,596), it may further rise to 86,000-87,000. If it falls back, it might test the support zone of 82,500-81,500. The current KDJ three-line values are at a high position, indicating an overbought market state and suggesting entry into a strong zone. If the KDJ indicator continues rising, it might drive the price towards 85,000. However, if the J line value turns downward, it could trigger a short-term correction. The DIF and DEA lines are running below the 0-axis, indicating an overall weak trend. The gradually shortening MACD green histogram might suggest diminishing bearish momentum and bullish attempts to counterattack. Waiting for the DIF line to cross above the DEA line forming a golden cross would further confirm the rebound trend.
In summary, the master offers the following advice for reference
Short at Bitcoin's rebound near 84,600, defend at 85,100, target 82,400, break position looks at 81,300.
Rather than giving a 100% accurate suggestion, it's better to provide the right perspective and trend. Earning for a moment is not as good as learning for a lifetime! The focus is on the approach, trend grasp, market layout, and position planning. What I can do is use my practical experience to help everyone, guiding your investment decisions and management in the right direction.
Writing time: (2025-04-03,16:10)
(Text - Master Talks Coins)
