Article source: Talk Li Talk Outside
In recent days, everyone's focus seems to be on the issue of tariffs.
On April 3 (Beijing time), US President Trump announced new tariff policies for multiple countries globally, including establishing a 10% minimum benchmark tariff for trading partners and imposing higher tariffs on certain trading partners, with total tariffs on China reaching as high as 54%.
On April 4, China also began to retaliate against US tariff policies, announcing a 34% tariff on all imported goods originating from the United States (note the wording here, originating from the United States).
Regarding the tariff issue, there are currently many perspectives online, but one point is basically unified: the tariff war has plunged the market into chaos and triggered financial market panic and new uncertainties.
Why is Trump doing this?
A currently popular view is that Trump hopes to reduce government debt financing costs by creating something to promote interest rate reductions.
So, is this good or bad?
This question should be viewed from short-term and long-term perspectives. In the short term, it is definitely not good, as US stocks are plummeting and crypto assets are also crashing, which may directly lead to a larger financial market crisis. However, if interest rates can be significantly reduced, then from a longer-term perspective (here only from a financial angle, without considering political factors), the new liquidity brought by low interest rates might also trigger a new wave of growth.
Of course, many conspiracy theorists online have elevated the tariff issue to a higher national political level, and some have even directly raised it to the level of a third world war, with seemingly well-reasoned analyses. We can hardly evaluate this, as different people will always have different views, and it depends on how you see it or what you believe.
Anyway, we won't consider such profound issues, but simply view the tariff matter as Trump's economic strategy - he might hope to artificially create some crisis, trigger short-term global market panic, and then take out a pre-prepared response plan at the right moment to rescue the market, ultimately making Trump and the United States great again.
Trump is a successful businessman and a successful politician. He couldn't possibly recklessly mess things up and leave US stocks on the verge of collapse for a long time. US debt is the lifeline of the United States. Solving the basic US debt problem and then restarting US stocks seems to be a priority choice, which is also a choice between short-term and long-term pain. If a potential economic crisis (or recession) could force the Federal Reserve to intervene and create a low-interest-rate environment through rapid interest rate cuts, that might be what Trump wants.
In any case, US stocks, US debt, the US dollar, and commodities always have important internal causal relationships. If you were Trump, facing some of the current problems in the United States, what choice would you make?
Let's return to the crypto market topic.
In recent days, many people have still been leaving messages asking whether it's a bull or bear market and what they should do.
If you're still struggling with the bull or bear market issue, you should first think about your definition of bull and bear markets. We've also sorted this out in previous articles of Talk Li Talk Outside:
Everyone's judgment criteria are different. If you believe that a portfolio decline of over 70% is a bear market, then for you, it's a bear market now. If you think a BTC price drop below MA200 is a bear market, then for you, it's a bear market now. If you believe a death cross on the weekly EMA21 and EMA55 marks a bear market, then for you, it's not a bear market yet. If you think a bear market is when more than half of the KOLs or bloggers you follow shout "bear market" slogans, then for you, it's a bear market now. And so on...
Actually, others' definitions of bull or bear markets are not important to you, and seeking verification of such issues isn't very meaningful. The key is how you view the bull or bear market issue.
Remember in the previous article (April 1st), we reorganized the 'Bitcoin Indicator Template'. Based on those long-cycle indicators, we believe: the current stage has not yet reached a true bear market, or it can be described as a phased bear market (or a major level correction). If we extend the cycle, there is a high probability that BTC will continue to break new highs in the future, it just depends on whether you can wait until that time. Maintaining patience is not easy, but I believe this is what is most needed now.
Short-term trends are unpredictable, but the long-term trend is still very clear!
In the short term, some say BTC might drop to $50,000 this year, while others say it might rebound and rise to $120,000 or higher. Both directions are probabilistic. As we mentioned before, if you're a professional trader, technical analyst, or can insight into short-term markets, you can certainly do short-term trades at different levels (hourly, daily, etc.) or even do contracts, with opportunities to make money regardless of market direction.
But if you're an ordinary investor like me, the DCA strategy we've discussed multiple times is still one of the most suitable strategies. We just need to buy BTC, hold BTC, and wait for a selling opportunity. Do these three things, and as time passes, you'll see your investment portfolio show positive growth. Any short-term fluctuations in this process can actually be ignored - just eat, drink, and continue doing what you normally do.
Taking our own example, our last DCA buy-in period was from May 22 to January 24, and the start of batch selling was planned for December 24, which we've shared in previous articles. Our tentative next DCA execution time is planned to start from 2026, but the specific execution details are not yet determined. We'll reconsider this (perhaps there will be new adjustments after this year's market).
However, based on my long-term observation, the proportion of people who can do the above (buy BTC, hold BTC, wait for selling opportunity) seems relatively low. But thinking about it, this seems like a normal phenomenon. If everyone could do this, the market rules or gameplay would probably change, because a reasonable market is one where only a few people can make money. If most people could easily make money in a market, there would be no so-called big opportunities.
Therefore, for most people in the crypto field, if they see their investment portfolio continuously shrinking, they will likely transform from initial excitement to panic, from panic to doubt, from doubt to pessimism, from pessimism to despair, from despair to exit... and ultimately, very few will truly persist.
When the market rises, almost everyone thinks they are a genius, and the market's continuous fluctuations and pullbacks are the best way to filter these people (and also a way for assets to transfer quickly). Looking back, the crypto market is interesting; even after experiencing devastating blows (such as major adjustments, or even near-collapse), it seems to be able to return with a stronger momentum, and then continue to make more people experience FOMO.
People are always good at forgetting, and the market takes advantage of this point. Everyone talks about cycles, but how many people can truly understand them?
In terms of the recent market trend, we have actually experienced similar situations many times before, and we have seen even more terrifying adjustments. Interestingly, the market seems to understand this as well. Those "diamond hands" who still insist that metaverse, blockchain games, and Non-Fungible Token will continue to rise 100 times in this cycle have apparently suffered heavy losses so far. As the saying goes, history often repeats itself but will not simply duplicate, which requires a deeper understanding.
Many people say that learning from past failures or experiences can help them better adapt to the present or future, but the actual situation is that the market always finds a way to make you forget the past or continue to lose yourself. This is why I have always been in awe of the market, because I understand that as time goes by, although I can learn many new things and accumulate more experience, if I try to directly defeat the market, I will ultimately be the one who loses.
Now, many people are emotional, believing that the bull market has ended, and some even shout that BTC will go to zero... This is not the market's fault, but people's inability to control their emotions. At least I have never seen someone with 100 bitcoins in their wallet shouting that BTC will go to zero.
At this stage of the market, it seems that many people have been forced to leave due to previous excessive FOMO. Currently, the world's first platform, which claims to have over 250 million registered users, has only tens of thousands of participants in its wallet's popular TGE activity (the latest TGE deposited a total of 369,445 BNB, assuming each person deposits a maximum of 3 BNB, it's roughly tens of thousands of people).
The so-called king of altcoins, ETH, is also showing increasingly weak performance. Not only has it not broken its previous high in this bull market, but it has continuously dropped to around $1,800, and currently seems likely to continue falling to around $1,500. Moreover, the so-called comprehensive altcoin season based on historical successful experience has not occurred yet, and the probability of it happening is getting lower (we have already sorted out this issue in our previous series of articles about the altcoin season).
The market ruthlessly devastates people's wallets time and again. But since we choose to invest in an extremely high-risk field, we should have a basic awareness before deciding to participate: only invest funds that you can afford to lose, even if your position is in Bitcoin.
What is doing the right thing?
Simply put, when you decide to continue staying in this market, what you should do is maximize your existing gains (avoid excessive greed); and when you decide to exit the market, what you should do is minimize your missed gains (minimize your regret).
