On April 3, the U.S. President Trump issued a new round of tariffs to U.S. trading partners. Although U.S. stock futures have already shown a pullback, the market reaction (especially implied volatility) remains relatively mild. Signs indicate that the market does not view this as a comprehensive risk-averse event, with room for negotiations still available. As U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested, this could be the beginning of a trade negotiation process that may continue until June.
1
BTC remains below the key resistance zone of around $90,000. Under the Federal Reserve's neutral stance, although hedge fund arbitrage selling may be nearing its end (as seen from the contraction of basis and financing rates and the large number of closures of CBOE BTC futures during the monthly rollover period), the current market's buying momentum remains relatively weak, and the net outflow trend of BTC spot ETF has not shown a clear reversal.
2
Wall Street's panic index VIX slightly increased from 20% to 23.5%, but is still far below the 36% peak during the August 2024 recession panic. At that time, the Federal Reserve rarely cut rates by 50 basis points in September, triggering a market rebound in the fourth quarter, and Elon Musk's public support for Trump and Trump's eventual election further drove this rally. However, the Federal Reserve's policy shift truly laid the foundation for the market rebound.
3
The upcoming U.S. earnings season is significant - especially after a wave of restocking activities before the tariff announcement. However, recent data, such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI falling back into the contraction zone, indicates that this restocking cycle has ended.
The forward-looking new orders index also shows a weakening trend. Notably, the Federal Reserve's last rate cut in September 2024 was not due to weak economic growth, but concerns about potential labor market slowdown - a situation that has not yet materialized.
4
In the cryptocurrency market, the 1-week BTC skew briefly spiked to 20%, reflecting increased demand for downside protection around $80,000. The options skew refers to the difference in implied volatility between out-of-the-money put and call options, typically reflecting market expectations of downside versus upside risks.
A positive skew means put option prices are higher than call options, indicating investors are more inclined to hedge against price declines. However, as tariff concerns gradually fade from the news spotlight, the skew has fallen to 9%. Therefore, many put options may become worthless - which could trigger a moderate buying pressure as traders enter the market after hedging is removed.
Trump may shift towards more market-friendly policy narratives, such as tax cuts or deregulation, to stabilize market sentiment, as his manufacturing reshoring plan depends on strong domestic and international investment growth.
Disclaimer: Markets are risky, and investments require caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve significant risks and instability. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
