Daxian Talks About Coins: 4.2 Bitcoin Breaks $85,000 Again! US Stocks Wait and See Trump's Tariff War!

Affected by Trump's tariff policy and stubborn U.S. inflation, cryptocurrencies and U.S. stocks performed disappointingly in the first quarter of this year. On April 1st, QCP released a report on its official Telegram channel, pointing out that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the S&P 500 index have recorded their worst quarterly performance in nearly three years. The second quarter also started under pressure, with the total market value of cryptocurrencies evaporating by over $160 billion since last Friday, highlighting the severe situation at the start of the quarter. After the U.S. stock market opened last night, as many investors were focused on Trump's upcoming tariff policy announcement at 3 AM Eastern Time on the 2nd, the market trading was relatively quiet. The four major indices closed slightly higher, with only the Dow Jones Industrial Average slightly declining by 0.03%. In the cryptocurrency market, around 22:00 last night, it quickly dropped to $82,500 but quickly rebounded with U.S. stocks, reaching a high of $85,555 in the early morning, currently slightly retreating to $84,579, with a 24-hour gain of 0.61%. Key events to watch this week: The market pullback last weekend was mainly due to large-scale options expiration at the end of the quarter, with traders actively selling, causing the perpetual contract funding rate to turn negative. The deleveraging in the cryptocurrency market coincides with macro data bringing another blow. Core inflation data higher than expected confirms that inflation in February was more stubborn. Although April is usually a relatively good month for cryptocurrency returns, caution is still needed. Besides Trump's tariff policy announcement at 3 AM Beijing time on April 3rd, other key events this week include Tuesday's ISM Manufacturing PMI, Thursday's ISM Services PMI, Friday's non-farm employment data, unemployment rate, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech. Bitcoin 4-hour chart analysis: First, according to the Bollinger Bands indicator, the current price is running near the middle band and slightly breaking upward, indicating a short-term upward trend. If the price continues to run along the upper band, it may further rise, but the risk of morning news should be heeded. Secondly, the MACD indicator shows DIF and DEA lines running near the 0-axis and turning downward, forming a death cross trend, which is typically a bearish signal. The red MACD histogram is gradually shortening, indicating weakening bullish momentum and imminent bearish pressure. Lastly, the KDJ indicator shows K and D lines entering the overbought area and crossing downward to form a death cross, typically signaling an imminent bearish trend. Subsequent prices may pull back. Bitcoin 1-hour chart analysis: First, the Bollinger Bands indicator shows the price breaking through the upper band and falling back, currently running between the middle and lower bands, indicating a short-term adjustment. If the price can effectively stabilize above the middle band, it may challenge the upper band again; otherwise, it may retest the lower band. Secondly, the MACD indicator shows DIF and DEA lines running above the 0-axis, forming a death cross with the MACD histogram turning from red to green, indicating strengthening bearish momentum and a potential short-term pullback. Lastly, the KDJ indicator shows K and D lines at a lower position but not in the oversold area. If the KDJ lines form a golden cross, a short-term rebound may occur; otherwise, the downward speed may accelerate. In summary, Bitcoin's price is oscillating between $83,900-$84,600 in the short term. The 4-hour MACD indicator's death cross and shortening red histogram suggest a pullback risk. The 1-hour KDJ indicator, while not in the oversold area, also shows a death cross, indicating strengthening bearish momentum. Recommendations: 1. Short Bitcoin at $84,800-$85,000, defend at $85,500, target $83,800-$83,300. 2. Long Bitcoin at $83,000-$83,300, defend at $82,600, target $85,000-$85,500. A 100% accurate suggestion is less valuable than providing the right perspective and trend. Learning the approach is more important than a single recommendation. Article time: (2025-04-02, 16:10) (By Big Immortal Talks Coins)