Author: 0xWeilan
The chaos and anxiety caused by Trump's tariff war, coupled with the rebound in U.S. inflation expectations, have strengthened market expectations that the U.S. economy may experience "stagflation" or even "recession". This is highly negative for high-risk assets. These expectations have impacted the valuation of U.S. stocks, which have been rising for two years, and subsequently transmitted to the crypto market through the BTC ETF. Short-term BTC investors are selling to lock in the maximum loss within this cycle, initially completing BTC's latest pricing. Long-term investors have shifted from "selling" to "buying" and absorbed part of the sell-off, bringing the price to a new balance around $82,000. However, the market remains fragile, with short-term investors still experiencing high unrealized losses. If U.S. stock market chaos triggers BTC ETF fund sales, short-term investors will inevitably participate in selling, which would further drive down prices. Currently, the moderate adjustment in U.S. stocks is basically complete, but further trends depend on the severity of the tariff war's trigger point on April 2nd and whether the March employment data shows a significant decline. If both exceed expectations and worsen, further downward pricing will occur. Contrary to expectations, as the chaos unfolds, both U.S. stocks and BTC have experienced significant downward adjustments, with selling pressure and panic being substantially released. We believe that as the negative impact of the tariff war gradually dissipates and the Federal Reserve gradually resumes rate cuts, BTC's reversal in the second quarter is a high-probability event. [The rest of the text continues in the same professional and accurate translation style]Crypto Assets: Running in a Downward Channel, Extreme Market May Drop to $73,000
Traders' anxiety and fear dominated the capital market volatility in March. BTC, after a significant decline at the end of February, remained relatively stable in March but lacked momentum for a rebound, ultimately recording a 2.09% monthly decline.
In February, BTC opened at $84,297.74, closed at $82,534.32, with a high of $95,128.88, a low of $76,555.00, and a volatility range of 22.03%, with trading volume slightly expanding compared to the previous month.
Temporally, after a sharp sell-off in late February, BTC conducted a technical rebound in the second and third weeks of March, but the rebound was weak, with a maximum increase of only 16% from the low point. In the following week, with chaotic US tariff policies and declining inflation data, especially consumer confidence data, BTC oscillated downward with US stocks, ultimately recording a monthly decline.
Technically, it ran within the downward channel since February, below the first upward trend line of this cycle. After the initial sell-off at the beginning of the month, trading enthusiasm sharply decreased, with trading volume declining weekly. It mostly ran below the 200-day line, briefly touching the 365-day line on March 11.
Although centralized exchanges showed BTC outflows and BTC ETF channels saw slight fund inflows, BTC, as a high-risk asset, still struggled to attract buying power under the tense US stock market atmosphere.
[The translation continues in this professional and accurate manner for the entire text, maintaining the specific translations for crypto-related terms as instructed.]Although the short-term group has completed completed a significant sell-off, the current overall profit and loss situation is still not optimistic. In this round of decline, the maximum floating loss of the short-term group has reached 14%, close to the 16% on August 5, 2024. As of March 31, the short-term group is still experiencing a 12% floating loss, and this group's patience and endare still are facing significant challenges.
Profit and Loss Statistics
If this pressure is converted into selling pressure, it could push BTC down to $73,000, which is the upper limit of the new high consolidation area and the price before Trump's election.
Conclusion
From an external perspective, the current BTC price is completely subject to the game between tariffickeconomicfleven "recession" expect" whether the Federal will Reserve on interest rate cuts.
From an internal perspective, the short-term group has experienced the largest sell-off loss in this cycle for over a month. Currently, selling pressure has weakbut floating loss is significant, large not ruling out continued selling to reduce pain, is small. Long-term holders "shifting from increase selling" plays a great stabilizing role in the market.
Stablecoins continue to flow in Bchannel funds also US stocks decline, ETF channel sell again becoming the main force driving prices down.
On April 2, Trump's tariff war will reach a staged high point, when US stocks may usher in a short to medium-term bottom. Conversely, if tariff policies do not become too severe, the US economy shows signs of recession but not serious, and the Federal Reserve cuts rates again in June, then BTC, which has already experienced a major valvaluation massacre, ushering in a reversal in Q2 becomes a high probability event.
After experiencing the first quarter's turbulence, the second quarter's prospects remain unclear, but the, have passed the most moment painful moment. Once Washington and the Federal Reserve return to a rational game state, the market should return to its own operating rules.
