Recently, HTX's new column "Huoban 1+1" invited crypto KOLs such as Baili, Sunova Taichu, Yuanliu, and Dabiaoge to share their views on mainstream market trends, opportunities, and challenges of meme coins under the theme "Taking the Pulse of the Market: Challenges, Opportunities, and Future Outlook".
Current Market Sentiment and Track Observation: Opportunities Brewing in Caution
Discussing the recent market, guests generally believed that a cautious or even pessimistic sentiment pervades, describing it as an "emotional bear market" or "emotional low point in a structural bull market". This sentiment mainly stems from insufficient macro liquidity, US stock market trends, potential policy risks, and declining trust. Baili pointed out that on-chain liquidity is also locked due to "holding coins and waiting for a rise", intensifying the sense of depletion. Sunova Taichu also mentioned that the "Fear and Greed Index" has fallen to the fear zone, showing the market's risk-averse mentality.
In this context, most guests recommend adopting a defensive strategy. Dabiaoge and Yuanliu both hold reservations about most meme coins, believing they lack intrinsic value, and suggest "holding coins and observing" to wait for better buying opportunities. Yuanliu added that even VC-backed projects face implementation challenges and should not be blindly participated in. For on-chain players, they can explore emerging tracks.
However, on the core question of "whether the bull market is still ongoing", guests' views diverged:
- Pessimistic View: Baili believes that current liquidity cannot support a comprehensive bull market, with Bitcoin only able to oscillate at low levels, and Altcoins struggling to rise or even being "drained", and the market needs to break its current state to usher in development.
- Structural Optimism: Despite short-term pessimistic sentiment, Yuanliu, Sunova Taichu, and Dabiaoge still believe the bull market foundation remains. Yuanliu insists on regular BTC investment, believing that Altcoins' poor performance disappoints users but the bull market logic remains unchanged. Sunova Taichu thinks that continuous ETF buying and the cost line brought by Bitcoin halving can form support, with the current decline more like preparing for a new narrative. Dabiaoge not only believes in BTC's long-term target price reaching high levels (over $300,000) but also observed institutions counter-buying BTC recently (March 24-30), contrasting with retail investors' selling. He judges the bull market is still ongoing but emphasizes the bottom may need to form a "double W bottom" and predicts this round will "definitely not have an Altcoin season".
In specific track selection, while being cautious in the short term, long-term layout strategies still exist. Sunova Taichu clearly stated that although meme coins provide a low-threshold entry, he is more optimistic about RWA and AI+Blockchain with long-term value, believing these directions can enhance Web3's financial attributes and real-world application potential.
Meme Coin Frenzy: Opportunities and Challenges Coexist
In the discussion of meme coins, Sunova Taichu believes opportunities and challenges coexist. The opportunity lies in low threshold, high propagation, and retail-driven nature, especially with Trump-related events attracting external attention. However, challenges include information asymmetry and zero-value risk, and he frankly admits he "dares not hold meme coins overnight".
Yuanliu pointed out that a successful meme coin needs interesting characteristics, strong community consensus, and viral spread. He believes meme coin opportunities always exist as they represent a decentralized culture and are an inevitable path for on-chain players, but participants need strong judgment.
Baili believes meme coins should be the "seasoning" of the market, not the mainstream, and will ultimately become a PVP game if they cannot implement application value.
Current Situation and Prospects of Bitcoin and Ethereum
Regarding Bitcoin and Ethereum's future trends, Yuanliu believes Ethereum has long-term potential as Vitalik's talent might bring new breakthroughs. However, Ethereum's performance this round is weak, with the meme coin craze migrating to Solana and BNB Chain. He reveals institutions are still accumulating and advises investors to participate with a hunter's mindset, not a prey's.
Baili analyzes from a logical perspective that Ethereum established the foundation of the crypto ecosystem through smart contracts, extending to Non-Fungible Token, DeFi, and other applications, and will not perish as long as these ecosystems exist.
Dabiaoge predicts Bitcoin will oscillate upward, while Ethereum has not bottomed out but might drop to three digits. Dabiaoge emphasized his anticipation for HTX's return to the top three exchanges.
Sunova Taichu believes Ethereum carries countless dreams and efforts and will not perish, but its price movement is driven by macro narratives and market expectations. He currently does not heavily position in Ethereum but maintains confidence in its ecosystem advantages.
