On April 2, QCP released a daily market observation stating, "Trump is about to announce a series of tariff measures at the Rose Garden. In the short term, we expect all risk assets to continue to be under pressure. However, as the new status quo gradually stabilizes, we may see some 'non-American exceptionalism' phenomena. Even if the United States might be marginalized due to policy choices, global stock indices may still continue to rise and reach new highs.
The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates 2.5 times in 2025. The Federal Reserve is facing a dilemma, with consumer confidence and soft data showing weakness, which may indicate a slowdown in US GDP growth in the second quarter. Meanwhile, inflation pressure caused by tariffs may gradually intensify starting from April 2. In a classic stagflation environment, the Federal Reserve is more likely to raise rates rather than cut them. Under the current circumstances, the Federal Reserve seems inclined to adopt a wait-and-see attitude.
In terms of cryptocurrencies, market sentiment remains low. Bitcoin continues to fluctuate without a clear direction, while Ethereum remains supported at $1,800. Overall, the crypto market shows signs of weakness, with many cryptocurrencies having fallen 90% year-to-date, and some currencies dropping over 30% in the past week. Unless there are significant changes in the macroeconomic situation or a powerful catalyst, we do not anticipate a substantial market reversal. Although a light position might support a small increase, we will not chase any upward trends before the macroeconomic environment improves."
