Author: Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily
Standing at the end of Q1 2025, undoubtedly, the most frustrated crypto community is the "E-Guards".
On one hand, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has dropped to its lowest point in nearly five years since May 2020, at only 0.02193; on the other hand, the quirky behavior of Ethereum's "soul figure" Vitalik, who recently "meowed" at a robot dog, has caused confusion and dissatisfaction among some in the Ethereum community.
Now, at the "darkest moment of Ethereum" with prices falling below $1,800, the "ETH Hangzhou" event is in full swing, with many developers and Ethereum community members enthusiastically participating in the ecosystem's construction. Odaily Planet Daily conducted on-site interviews at "ETH Hangzhou" to hear about the ecosystem's development.
When "position determines perspective" no longer works: 50% hold 10 or fewer ETH, 40% hold 100 or fewer ETH
At the Demo Day of ETH Hangzhou, Odaily Planet Daily reporter Wenser conducted a rough small-sample questionnaire survey with about 10 participants, where:
Only 1 person has completely sold out of ETH;
50% hold 1-10 ETH;
40% hold 10-100 ETH.
It's worth noting that @Solomon_NAHHH, who sold out of ETH, mentioned selling a year ago and now has some positions in SUI; @0xBenniee, who holds a small amount of ETH, finds the Ethereum ecosystem quite abstract; among those holding less than 100 ETH, @ConstantinGao revealed holding a large number of ETH short positions.
ETH Ecosystem Development Stage: 70% Believe It Has Entered Middle Age
In the small sample survey of 10 people, there was some consensus on the Ethereum ecosystem's development stage:
20% (2 people) believe the Ethereum ecosystem is still in its youth;
70% (7 people) believe the Ethereum ecosystem has entered middle age;
10% (1 person) believes the Ethereum ecosystem has entered old age.
Those with the first view primarily consider the technical route, believing the ecosystem is still in the early stages of implementation, with many technical routes still in the exploration phase. In contrast, those believing it has entered old age primarily consider the token economy, viewing the ecosystem as entering a relatively solidified stage based on ETH's issuance cycle and token operation stage.
Those believing the ecosystem has entered middle age primarily look at the development stage, where Ethereum's infrastructure is relatively complete, and most sub-tracks have been somewhat disproven except for the DeFi track. Liquidity and major crypto projects still view the Ethereum mainnet or EVM environment as the primary ecosystem.
Possibility of ETH Price New High: No Hope Within 3 Years, Wait for Next Cycle
When asked if ETH could break its previous historical high of nearly $4,800 within 1-2 years, almost everyone was pessimistic, including "E-Guards" who entered in 2019 and "ETH Ecosystem Buidlers" developing DeFi projects.
Overall, the views on when ETH might reach a new market price high can be categorized into three types:
First category, possible in 2-3 years. Crypto KOLs @RubyWang and @0xLaughing believe a new ETH price high depends on new asset issuance methods or asset types leading the market.
Second category, start looking from 5 years onwards. @Starzq believes ETH alone can hardly reach a new high, and would need BTC's liquidity spillover or edge innovations in the Ethereum ecosystem. @Freya suggests hoping for community development or technological breakthroughs.
Third category, time unknown, mainly dependent on application development. @ArtistZhou, @33357xyz, @WONG_SSH, @0xPhiloA believe ETH's new market price high depends on eliminating L2 parasites, implementing Based Rollup technology roadmap, and developing mature applications after washing out previous high-position NFT, GameFi, and DeFi players.
Additionally, @Solomon_NAHHH suggests another possibility: if the US ETH ETF can be fully sold and taken over by an Eastern power, it might have a chance to hit a new high.
@ConstantinGao, holding large ETH short positions, points out that ETH's poor price performance stems from the bankruptcy of narratives like "digital oil" and "world computer". Ethereum has become a block space rental business. After L2 expansion, it's not only being parasitized but also has reduced cost, causing the market to no longer recognize its value storage function. This differs from BTC's "digital gold" concept, which the market has accepted after abandoning its payment positioning. Although not optimistic about ETH's price performance in the short term (2-3 years), he believes Ethereum still has significant development potential, and token consumption demand might experience massive growth driven by mature applications, potentially gradually reaching new highs.
Summary: ETH Is Not Irreplaceable, But Still the Crypto Battlefield
Among the young faces, the author saw many young faces still active at the ETH ecosystem event. Despite ETH's poor price performance, the ecosystem remains highly decentralized, with old and new participants still holding strong. As for the price, only time can be the judge.
