On April 2, 2025, a critical moment for the global financial market is set, with US President Trump expected to announce corresponding tariff measures on Wednesday at 3 PM (3:00 AM Beijing time the next day) in the White House Rose Garden.
Due to concerns about the tariff hammer falling, US stocks plummeted on March 28, with tech stocks leading the decline. The seven tech giants (including Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, etc.) saw their market value evaporate by approximately $505 billion, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped by 2.95%. This is the largest single-day decline since the US stock market crash on March 10, marking a severe adjustment at the end of the first quarter of 2025.
Transmitted to the crypto market, BTC dropped from $84,000 on the afternoon of March 29 to $81,644 in 8 hours, a decline of over 3%. It rebounded to $83,536 on March 30 at 18:00 but failed to maintain its gains, falling to $81,565 by 6:00 on March 31. The total crypto market value dropped from a peak of $3.9 trillion to $2.9 trillion, a 25% decline, with trading volume shrinking from $126 billion after the November 5 election to $35 billion, a contraction of about 70%.
Both in public and private conversations, Trump claims tariffs are a "win-win" policy that can bring manufacturing jobs back to the US and generate trillions of dollars in new revenue for the federal government. He also stated that allowing advisors to dissuade him from implementing higher tariffs during his first term was a mistake. Now, he believes that imposing a simple, unified tax rate on most imported goods will help avoid exemption clauses weakening the tariff effect.
Trump has openly praised the benefits of import taxes, even calling "tariff" the most beautiful word in the dictionary, and stated that 19th-century tariff policies brought the economic peak of US history. Some allies even considered making April 2, the tariff anniversary, a federal holiday. Trump's first-term chief strategist Steve Bannon even suggested establishing a "Liberation Day" as a national holiday to honor the return of jobs, skills, and trade to the US and its workers.
The most likely option is the proposal publicly presented this month by Treasury Secretary Scott Besent: imposing tariffs on 15% of countries deemed the worst trade partners by the White House, which account for almost 90% of US imports. Additionally, Trump has advanced tariff policies covering all countries but targeting specific industries. He imposed a 25% tariff on all car imports on Wednesday and hinted at similar measures for pharmaceuticals, lumber, and other sectors.
However, the market is most concerned about the ongoing uncertainty caused by policy adjustments, a "slow knife cutting" risk that is forcing traders to reassess their investment logic for the second quarter. BlockBeast compiled analysts' multi-dimensional analyses from macro gaming, technical patterns, policy variables, combining long and short chip conversion signals and historical structural reproduction paths to reveal potential trading opportunities and traps in the eye of the storm.
Macro Analysis
@OwenJin 12
1. Whether VAT is included (bearish if yes, bullish if no)
If reciprocal tariffs consider VAT as previously mentioned, the reciprocal tax rate will be higher than expected.
2. Whether Mexico has tariff exemption (bullish if yes, bearish if no)
As previously mentioned, in Lutnik's tariff system, Mexico's tariffs are an extension of domestic policy, hoping they will cooperate to promote North American internal circulation and facilitate negotiations. Mexico is the US's TOP 2 trade partner. If exempted, stagflation pressure would be slightly reduced.
3. How the US dollar index responds
Tariffs trigger supply-side inflation, and supply inflation will interact with the dollar's strength - Dxy bottoming and rebounding will offset part of the tariff effect; Dxy continuing to fall will increase future inflation pressure.
The dollar's strength is an amplifier of supply-side inflation. If the dollar appreciates, stagflation pressure will relatively weaken.
4. Expectation changes
Q1's macro environment was not bad, with liquidity not tight, QT slowing, 10y and Dxy declining. However, since February, with policy expectation changes, the crypto market experienced multiple "Black Mondays" during US stock futures opening, from Deepseek's valuation squeeze to weekend Mexico tariff retaliation and recession expectation trading.综合来看无非是 3 个预期变化：
①Reflation expectations from tariffs
②Recession expectations from soft economic data and Fed's wait-and-see attitude leading to stagflation
③Valuation adjustment expectations after the post-pandemic era
Personally, in trading, if these 3 expectations cannot be reversed, it will be difficult to reverse the previously priced 78000-91000 range. Currently, no concessions are seen on tariffs, so if it exceeds, look for divergence and do a reverse operation.
Bullish opportunities in 2025 may appear when tariff impacts land + tax cut bill expectation reversal (tax cut bill has no signs yet, waiting patiently).
@Phyrex_Ni
Actually, Bitcoin's risk aversion sentiment has improved significantly. US stock index futures dropped simultaneously after opening this morning, mainly because April 2nd is approaching, and many investors chose to avoid risks due to tariff uncertainty. Currently, Nasdaq futures are down over 1.2%, S&P 500 futures down 0.75%, with Asian market investors choosing to run first.
The market is now waiting for Trump's final tariff implementation, and what the market fears most is not a one-time tariff, but Trump's repeated tariff adjustments, which might make the market feel even riskier.
But it must be noted that increased difficulty does not necessarily mean a decline, as it is still event-driven, and Trump might reverse again at any time. This is the difficulty. The second quarter may be more challenging compared to the first quarter, with inflation, tariffs, the Fed maintaining interest rates, and Japan's potential rate hike possibly impacting risk markets. April's tariffs will be the main reason for risk markets' increased difficulty, and the tariffs cannot be simply judged as good or bad, but more about "gaming".
@CryptoPainter_X
This is the long-term oscillation of ASR-VC daily channel before the last bull market turned bear, which indeed has some similarities with the current situation;
I drew a potential path of similar structural reproduction on the chart, with the basic idea that if this is the final stage of bull-to-bear transition, we still need to wait for one last multi-inducing moment.
Still, it is not recommended to simply carve the boat. Inductive methods are not effective in the market, but understanding previous structural trends and their reasons, and applying the same logic to the current situation, is possible.
@qinbafrank
In my opinion, each party has essentially subdivided the tariffs into multiple scenarios, with the core still being the previously discussed mild version and the most hardline version, with other situations swinging between these two versions. For market performance, we need to consider:
1) If it is the most hardline version, will the days after the 2nd be the peak of uncertainty in the future? Because the most hardline version will definitely trigger the market's most pessimistic expectations and cause a huge impact. Afterward, each country will negotiate with the US separately, because the worst-case scenario has emerged, and any positive progress in subsequent negotiations will boost market confidence.
2) If it is a mild version, the market should be fine that day, and confidence will naturally rise without being as bad as everyone thought. However, subsequent negotiations will definitely be back and forth, so the market will move up and down after surging on the 2nd and 3rd, advancing three steps and retreating one, with a long period of repeated grinding.
Technical Analysis
@YSI_crypto
Currently, the 1H is still a downward box, but there is a short-term structural reversal within the box, combined with indicators crossing over, first looking towards the 83600 area, observing if it continues to be blocked.
The next opportunity to enter a long position has been marked in the chart, which is a "pullback rebound after a breakthrough".
@CryptosLaowai
BTC continues its short-term downward trend, with a false breakout at the 83000 resistance level on the 4-hour chart to lure in buyers, now falling back. In the small cycle, it is expected to go to 79.5 to form the first bottom, then rebound after the tariff landing on Wednesday, making everyone feel it should rise, then form a bottom within the bottom at 78k. Refer to the chart below.
@Guilin_Chen_
1. A channel is a very weak structure, and the existence of a channel is to be broken, this is my experience;
2. If the drop from 109000 → 76000 is seen as the first stage of the entire decline, I believe the rebound from 76000 to now is not yet complete, as shown in the chart:
3. Consecutive downward moves create a need for technical indicator repair.
Subjective speculation:
1. Currently, the speculation is about inflation and the expectation of recession brought by tariffs, rather than an actual imminent recession. As I mentioned in a previous post, observe the price performance before the shoe drops on April 2nd, and find opportunities for a contrarian trade when emotions and prices reach a critical point;
2. Fact 1: Now a multi-short conversion is in progress, with daily-level moving averages turning downward, MA 30, MA 60, MA 120 forming a bearish arrangement, and from both technical and macro perspectives, there is no possibility of a bullish reversal; Fact 2: If this adjustment is for the large-scale upward movement from 15476 → 109000, then this adjustment level will be significant, and a large adjustment level must be back and forth, not a straight downward movement, so no reversal does not mean no rebound;
3. Distribution hypothesis: When the next level of funds is insufficient, and a small amount of funds can control the market trend, the cost of main funds controlling the plate becomes lower, and back-and-forth pulling is beneficial to raising the average price of main funds' distribution, with altcoins able to lie flat and die, weakly distributing; but BTC, such a high-quality target, has the confidence to distribute at high levels.
@biupa
There are two possible ways forward.
The first is to explore again below 81200, causing indicators to fully resonate, which can confirm the bottom. The second is to start rebounding here, with 81200 as the bottom (although not completely strongly resonant, but two resonances also have a bottoming phenomenon).
Combining news, I believe after the tariff conclusion on April 2nd, it can basically be determined how to proceed (final drop VS bottom rebound). Considering this is the first time the Acc indicator has turned green since March 11th, it is not suitable to be completely out of the market in any case.
