Trading time: Tariff policy is about to be announced, and analysts say Bitcoin may reach a new high of $110,000

1. Market Observation

Keywords: ACT, ETH, BTC

ACT experienced a flash crash on Binance yesterday, with its price nearly halving. Wintermute, as ACT's market maker, also withdrew multiple ACT tokens from Binance after the sharp decline and sold them on-chain. Market volatility is not an isolated case, with tokens like DF, LEVER, MUSK, and GUN also experiencing 20%-50% drops.

Bitcoin has been oscillating for several days. Fidelity Digital Assets analyst Zack Wainwright noted that while Bitcoin is still in an acceleration phase, the cycle is approaching its end. He predicts that if this cycle reaches a new high, it may start from the benchmark price around $110,000. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is even more optimistic, believing that if the Federal Reserve shifts from quantitative tightening to Treasury quantitative easing, Bitcoin could bottom out from the $76,500 touched last month, then rise to $110,000, and gradually climb to the year-end target of $250,000.

Institutional investment attitudes are also diverging. Despite market uncertainties, institutions like Strategy, Metaplanet, and MARA continue to accumulate Bitcoin, with GameStop planning to issue $1.5 billion in convertible bonds to purchase Bitcoin. However, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink remains cautious about Bitcoin, warning of potential damage to the US dollar's international status while acknowledging the advantages of tokenization. On the regulatory front, the EU's top three regulatory bodies, including ESMA, recently released a joint report indicating that the increasingly friendly US crypto policy is deepening the linkage between crypto assets and traditional financial markets, potentially increasing systemic risks.

On the macroeconomic front, Trump is set to announce a new global trade tariff policy at 4 AM on April 3rd, expected to impose a 20% comprehensive tariff on all trading partners. Financial institutions have varied reactions to this policy. The former head of economic research at Bank of America believes this might be just the beginning of a trade war. Pepperstone's research head warns that tariffs could exacerbate the risk of US economic stagflation. Wells Fargo economists note that tariff expectations have already pushed up the manufacturing price index, and ongoing uncertainty is suppressing market demand. These macroeconomic factor changes are expected to continue influencing the cryptocurrency market trend, and market participants need to closely monitor policy developments and their chain reactions.

2. Key Data (as of April 2nd, 13:30 HKT)

(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)

• Bitcoin: $84,119.27 (YTD -10.17%), Daily spot trading volume $25.592 billion

• Ethereum: $1,857.62 (YTD -44.17%), Daily spot trading volume $16.19 billion

• Fear and Greed Index: 44 (Neutral)

• Average GAS: BTC 1 sat/vB, ETH 0.43 Gwei

• Market Dominance: BTC 61.8%, ETH 8.3%

• Upbit 24-hour Trading Volume Ranking: XRP, COMP, BTC, MASK, MEW

• 24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 0.9223

• Sector Performance: Crypto market generally declined, with AI Meme sector down 7.2% and SocialFi sector down 4.5%

• 24-hour Liquidation Data: Globally 121,531 people liquidated, total liquidation amount $292 million, with BTC liquidation at $76.42 million and ETH liquidation at $51.79 million

• BTC Medium-Long Term Trend Channel: Upper line ($85,497.74), Lower line ($83,804.72)

• ETH Medium-Long Term Trend Channel: Upper line ($1,951.99), Lower line ($1,913.34)

*Note: When price is above upper and lower lines, it indicates a medium-long term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range, it is in a bottom-building or top-building state.