The scapegoat is about to appear, and it may be wearing a suit.
Written by: Matti
Translated by: Luffy, Foresight News
This is a story woven from mythology, legends, and historical analogies, rather than derived from first principles. Throughout my writing, I have applied René Girard's scapegoat theory to the cryptocurrency realm, and I suggest familiarizing yourself with his theoretical framework before delving deeper.
Rationality tells me that as the crypto industry matures, viewing it through a traditional cyclical perspective is outdated. However, deeply influenced by Girard's theory, I cannot escape those mythical patterns that keep emerging. When you have a hammer in hand, everything looks like a nail.
In this article, I will explore how crypto bull markets unfold in two acts: the first act is an episode of "mimetic crisis," followed by the second act, which ultimately concludes with a "sacrificial crisis."
The first act begins with a price rise, which generates a mimetic desire throughout the community. The subsequent price crash causes chaos and conflict, which can be seen as a symbolic "everyone for themselves" situation, where internal conflicts consume the entire crypto community.
The second act resolves the crisis of the first act through another price surge, thus ending the cycle and finding the ultimate scapegoat. Each cycle ends due to the over-development of its fundamental principles, and each cycle has a scapegoat.
This reveals both a cyclical nature (this time is not really different) and a linear developmental process (this time is actually somewhat different). In the end, we always find ourselves in a new landscape.
The collapse of Initial Coin Offerings (ICO) left Ethereum in desolation, while the DeFi summer's revelry brought it back to life. The DeFi summer raised doubts about Bitcoin's potential as a financialized asset, but Microstrategy and BlackRock restored confidence.
The 2017 bull market was driven by Ethereum's ICO. The "world computer" became a slot machine. As ICO projects cashed out their Ethereum, this "computer" self-destructed until the 2020 DeFi boom revived it, ultimately ending with the collapse of over-leveraged speculators like Three Arrows Capital and SBF. The 2017 scapegoat was less individualized but still real.
In 2017, Ethereum's ICO projects were both the source of prosperity and decline; in 2021, the DeFi summer heroes experienced a similar journey. The best scapegoats are those who initially brought wealth and revelry, such as the wealth from Ethereum's ICO or the crazy DeFi lending and token issuance, where participants could become millionaires just by participating, but ultimately became the cause of decline.
Bubbles are a side effect of mimesis
The bull markets of 2017 and 2021 were clearly divided into two acts, with a striking similarity: both summers saw significant price drops. These episodes (brief but intense periods of decline) interrupted the initial price surge, yet in the second act, this momentum reignited with the same enthusiasm, driven by new market leaders.
(The translation continues in the same manner for the rest of the text)Although the pursuit of Meme tokens might distract observers, it is merely a lure, just like Non-Fungible Tokens in the previous cycle. This is a small cycle within a larger cycle. However, it plays a crucial role in revealing people's rejection of grand ambitions: price has become both a means and an end, which is the last attempt to escape before institutions completely control the situation and fraud becomes the exclusive domain of white-collar professionals.
Institutions have already entered the market. This is no longer an empty talk of the Enterprise Ethereum Alliance in 2017, but the reality of 2024, with the Bitcoin spot ETF launched on January 11th. Donald Trump's election as president, promising to make the United States a crypto superpower, marks a significant step forward for cryptocurrencies. By November 2024, the crypto market was in a frenzy, Wall Street had entered, strategic reserves seemed imminent, and a stablecoin bill hinted at a new form of dollarization.
However, Trump's inauguration in January 2025 brought anxiety. Amid negative rumors of trade wars and macroeconomic turbulence, expectations of government intervention in the market like a deity were dashed. The crypto community realized that Trump, as a top influencer, destroyed the market with his own Meme token, suddenly ending the Meme token's super cycle. The first act ended, with the community hoping institutions would save them, but no scapegoat was yet in sight.
Before the Second Act, the Bottom Has Not Yet Arrived
It is now March 2025, and we are in the interlude of the first act, with Bitcoin price dropping from its high point, and the entire Altcoin market severely impacted. The reason this interlude might spiral out of control is that people truly believe everything is over. Conflicts escalate, the community falls into chaos, but no scapegoat has appeared.
History suggests that the second act often triggers a crazy price surge, redirecting people's desires and postponing the sacrifice crisis. However, this does not mean prices will necessarily skyrocket. The question is who we will blame when the over-development adopted by institutions becomes unsustainable.
The scapegoat will inevitably come from the institutions that brought hope to this cycle. Will it be a vague, collective cry - "institutions strangled the crypto market" - pointing fingers at BlackRock's ETF empire, or those anonymous suit-wearers who resisted dollarization?
Or will it be more specific and personalized? Will MicroStrategy collapse, with its $40 billion Bitcoin bet vanishing in a spectacular leverage crash, making Michael Saylor the ultimate speculative king - once praised for his vision, now a sacrifice for our mistakes? Perhaps Trump, who abandoned us with Meme token hype, will also become a target.
This is not the bottom, at least not yet. Mimetic chaos continues, and the second act is about to arrive. Whether it will bring a crazy surge followed by a deeper abyss, as in the past, remains to be seen.
One thing is certain: the scapegoat is about to appear, and it will likely be wearing a suit. If it is not wearing a suit, it might be blamed for that very reason.
