Fidelity: Has Bitcoin reached the peak of this cycle?

Author: Zack Wainwright Fidelity Analyst Originally published 19)

Translated by: Felix, PANews

< p the market cyclel progresses, investors are closely watching potential signs of Bitcoin's rise after the US election.

In November 2024, according to Glassnode's closing price, Bitcoin broke through its previous all point-from March 2024, entering a true price discovery phase for the first time since breaking $20,000 in December020. Historically, this transition has appeared in previous acceleration stages, characterized by high volatility and high profits in Bitcoin's price cycles.

The key question now is: Has Bitcoin reached the top of this cycle, or is there still room for further growth?

Bitcoin Rebound and Historical Rise After the Election

Historically, Bitcoin first broke $30 in 2013, aring a historical new high of $229, then cooled down down. Bitcoin similarly broke $1,100 in 2017, entering entering a price discovery period, with the asset rising to near $3,000 before cooling.

These two breakthroughs highlight the volatility and profit patterns typically seen in acceleration stages. sideways movements following each rise. In both 2013 and 2017, these sideways movements ultimately erupted into a rise.

Although the trajectory of the current cycle has not unfolded, these historical similarities suggest a similar upward trend is possible.

Rising Volatility Levels

On a weekly basis, Bitcoin's actual volatility has rapidly increased, which may indicate that the sideways movement of the past months may be about to end. This is consistent with observed behavior in acceleration stages. Historically, the actual volatility of an acceleration stage has been rising. From July 15, 2024, when the acceleration stage began to March 6, 2025, the one-year actual volatility rose from 45% to 51%.

>>Additionally, Bitcoin's volatility has historically tended to be upward. Looking at monthly returns, with the S&P 500 as a reference point, Bitcoin has shown higher levels in both directions, but with higher frequency and magnitude in upward movements.

Nevertheless, pullbacks are an "inevitable" in acceleration stages—which may be challenging for investors. However, compared to previous cycles, Bitcoin's recent pullbacks have been relatively average.. This suggests that as indicates that as Bitcoin matures, volatility may weaken in in both two directions.

Are We Nearing the End of This Cycle?

While on the remains uncertain,, historical experience suggests suggest that as the acceleration stage extends, lengthe likelihood of a dramaticback peak increases. reversal increases. As of March 3, Bitcoin has been the in the232 days of of latest acceleration stage,, stage the peaks reached in previous stages and sudden reversals. The acceleration stages in 2010-- 2013, and reached peaks at 244,, 261, and 280 days respectively, indicating a slight extension of each cycle's acceleration stage.

A key indicator to watch in the acceleration stage is the number of days new historical highs within 60 consecutive days. In previous acceleration stages, Bitcoin typically experienced two significant rises, the the first after the election. If it is about to set a new historical high,, its starting price would be close to $110,000.

It is worth noting that the second rebound only failed to materialize in November 2021While continuing to monitor the cycle it is important to observe whether Bitcoin follows its historical pattern or begins or begins to show divergdivergent signs.

Related Reading: BTC Approaches $80,000, Where is the Bottom?