I. Macroeconomic Impact: Double Squeeze of Tariffs and Inflation
Trump's New Tariff Policy Triggers Market Panic
The United States plans to announce an "equivalent tariff" policy on April 2nd, expected to impose an average 15% tariff on all trading partners, a 5 percentage point increase from previous expectations. Goldman Sachs warns this could raise import costs and trigger global retaliatory actions, intensifying supply chain inflation pressures;
On March 28th's "Black Friday" in US stocks, the S&P 500 plummeted 1.97%, with tech stocks leading the decline, market value evaporating $505 billion. The crypto market was simultaneously under pressure, with BTC falling from $84,000 to $81,565, total market value shrinking 25% to $2.9 trillion;
Inflation Data Exceeds Expectations, Rate Cut Prospects Dim
US February core PCE price index rose 2.8% year-on-year, higher than the expected 2.6%, while the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 57 (lowest since 2022). Goldman Sachs lowered 2025 GDP growth forecast from 1.5% to 1.0%, with economic recession probability rising to 35%;
Federal Reserve officials sound hawkish, with Boston Fed President Collins stating "maintaining high interest rates longer is appropriate", market expectations for rate cuts this year reduced from 4 to 1-2 times, causing risk assets to be sold off;
II. Institutional Fund Trends: ETF Divergence and RWA Explosion
Bitcoin ETF Fund Flows Diverge
US Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for two consecutive weeks, with $1.54 billion outflowing in March, including GBTC single-day sale of 641 BTC (worth $56.45 million). However, BlackRock's IBIT maintains net inflows, with cumulative AUM breaking $40 billion, indicating long-term institutional confidence;
El Salvador continues to accumulate BTC, purchasing 53 coins in the past 30 days, with a medium-term goal of adding 20,000, reinforcing its "Bitcoin strategic reserve" positioning;
RWA Track Rises Against the Trend
Tokenized Real World Assets (RWA) market is expected to reach $50 billion by 2025, with Ondo Finance (ONDO) token price breaking $2.1, creating a historical high with a total market value of $2.8 billion. Partnering with BlackRock's BUIDL fund, offering 4.44% annual US Treasury yield, attracting institutional holdings from Grayscale, Pantera Capital, etc.;
Maple Finance transforms to RWA collateralized lending, with cumulative loans of $2.46 billion, 9.69% annual yield, token MPL converting to SYRUP with circulating market value exceeding $100 million, becoming a leader in private credit;
III. Technical Innovation and Market Divergence: Layer2 vs. Meme
Layer2 Technical Upgrade and Institutional Layout
Ethereum's Pectra upgrade will launch in April, integrating execution and consensus layers, enhancing staking flexibility, paving the way for staked ETH spot ETF. Fidelity and Grayscale have submitted applications, potentially attracting billions of dollars if approved;
Traditional giants like Sony and Deutsche Bank are building Layer2 on Ethereum, though not igniting consumer market, but highlighting technical recognition. Base chain (Coinbase's) daily active users exceed one million, with trading volume surpassing Solana;
Meme Coin Frenzy and Risk Warning
BSC chain's "Meme season" continues, CaptainBNB surging 13,000% within 6 hours of launch, but most projects lack value support. Trump family's TRUMP coin market value once exceeded $12 billion, later questioned as a "covert corruption tool", price halved;
Analysts warn that Meme coin trading volume on Solana, Base, and other chains exceeds 11%, but high leverage combined with regulatory uncertainty (such as US Congress legislation restricting politicians from issuing coins) may trigger sector collapse;
IV. Future Outlook: Key Events and Strategy Recommendations
April Risk Events Concentrated
April 2nd Tariff Announcement: If policy is strict, Bitcoin might drop below $80,000; if some industries are exempted, it may rebound to $85,000;
April 5th Non-Farm Data: If new employment is below 150,000, it may strengthen rate cut expectations, driving crypto market rebound;
Long-term Trends and Investment Logic
Bitcoin Strategic Allocation: Galaxy Research predicts BTC 2025 target at $185,000, recommends dollar-cost averaging between $78,000-$82,000, with stop loss at $77,500;
RWA and Compliance Opportunities: Prioritize layout on leading projects like Ondo (ONDO), Maple (SYRUP), cautious of token unlock selling pressure (e.g., ONDO unlocking 1.94 billion tokens annually for the next four years);
Hedging Strategy: Buy BTC put options (strike price $75,000), allocate 20%-30% stablecoins (USDC, DAI) to address extreme volatility;
Conclusion: Finding Structural Opportunities in Uncertainty
The crypto market in 2025 is experiencing multiple tests of macroeconomic policies, technological innovation, and capital games. Although short-term volatility is intense, RWA compliance, Layer2 upgrades, and institutional ETF inflows remain long-term main themes. Investors need to abandon FOMO emotions and find value anchors amid the tariff storm and inflation fog.
—— This article does not contain any investment advice, invest cautiously
