Author: Luke, Mars Finance
By the end of March 2025, the global financial markets experienced a severe turbulence. The U.S. stock market encountered a "Black Friday" on March 28, with the S&P 500 index dropping 1.97%, the Nasdaq index plummeting 2.7%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 715 points, a decline of 1.69%. This downturn quickly spread to the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin (BTC) falling from $84,000 in the afternoon of March 29 to $81,565 in the early morning of March 31, Ethereum (ETH) dropping to a recent low of $1,767, and Solana (SOL) reaching a low point of $122.68 on March 30 at 18:00.
According to Coinglass data, approximately 70,000 cryptocurrency investors were liquidated in the past 48 hours, losing around $200 million. This cross-market chain reaction not only triggered widespread panic but also exposed the fragility of the current economic environment. This article will analyze the reasons for this plunge by combining perspectives from multiple authoritative institutions and explore key events and their potential impacts that investors should focus on this week.
[The rest of the translation follows the same professional and accurate approach, maintaining the original structure and technical terminology.]· April 2 (Tuesday): Trump's "Reciprocal Tariff" Policy Announcement Summary: The Trump administration plans to announce a tariff policy of an average 15% on all trading partners. Goldman Sachs expects this will raise import costs and potentially trigger global retaliatory tariffs. If tariffs are as severe as anticipated, US stocks may drop 3%-5%, and BTC might break below the $80,000 support level; if the policy is less intense (e.g., excluding semiconductor and automotive industries), the market might see a brief rebound, with BTC potentially recovering to $85,000. Evercore ISI's Matthew Aks noted, "Market reaction will depend on the timing and target industries of the tariffs."
· April 3 (Wednesday): ECB March Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Release Summary: The European Central Bank will publish its March meeting minutes, potentially revealing the latest assessment of Eurozone economic conditions and inflation, and whether they will accelerate interest rate cuts. If the minutes show a dovish tendency (such as further rate cuts), it might boost global risk assets, with the crypto market potentially rebounding alongside US stocks; if a cautious stance is maintained, it could intensify risk-averse sentiment, suppressing BTC and ETH prices. State Street's Michael Arone believes, "The ECB's policy direction will influence global liquidity expectations."
· April 4 (Thursday): Federal Reserve Chair Powell's Speech Summary: Powell will deliver a speech on the US economy and monetary policy, potentially responding to inflation data and tariff impacts. If Powell signals potential rate cuts (e.g., in response to economic slowdown), US stocks and crypto markets might rise 2%-3%, with BTC potentially breaking above $83,000; if he emphasizes maintaining high interest rates, it could intensify selling pressure. Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone warns, "Powell's tone will directly impact short-term risk asset movements."
· April 5 (Friday): US Non-Farm Payrolls Report Summary: March non-farm employment data will reveal the US labor market's health, with market expectations of job additions below 200,000 and unemployment potentially rising to 4.2%. If data is weak (job additions below 150,000), it will strengthen rate cut expectations, benefiting US stocks and crypto markets, with BTC potentially rebounding to $86,000; if data unexpectedly strong, it might raise US Treasury yields and pressure risk assets. Goldman Sachs predicts, "Non-farm data will be the week's market volatility climax."
· April 5 (Friday): Microsoft's 50th Anniversary and Copilot Update Summary: Microsoft will celebrate its 50th anniversary and potentially announce significant updates to its AI assistant Copilot. If updates exceed expectations, it might boost tech stock confidence, with the Nasdaq potentially rising 1%-2%, indirectly influencing crypto market sentiment; if updates are underwhelming, the impact will be limited. InvestingHaven's Taki Tsaklanos believes, "Tech stock performance will provide a bellwether for the crypto market."
(The rest of the translation follows the same professional and accurate approach, maintaining the specific cryptocurrency and financial terminology as requested.)
