BTC Spot ETF通道全周5个交易日全部录得净流入，共计10.5亿美元，成为BTC反弹的物质支撑。

本报告所提及市场、项目、币种等信息、观点及判断，仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。<img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/feed/ecd4387e8f92350d0ca68bfb28c08d54.jpg">本周 BTC 开于 82562.50 美元，收于 86092.94 美元，全周上涨 4.28% ，振幅 7.71% ，连续两周上涨，成交量三周下降。BTC 价格运行于下降通道中，逼近通道上沿。本周，美联储在议息会议上做出鸽派发声，表示如果经济出现问题将出手干预，并暗示今年将有 2 次降息。美股企稳后、ETF 通道资金流入汹涌，BTC 企稳反弹至下降通道上沿。随着下周美国公布 PCE 数据，BTC 价格也将面临方向选择。<h2>宏观金融及经济数据</h2>3 月 19 日，议息会议上美联储做出了市场普遍预期的决定，维持基准利率不变，将关键借贷利率保持在 4.25 ~ 4.5% 区间。此外，美联储还暗示 2025 年还将再降息 50 个基点，并宣布调整其减持债券的速度。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，他们调低了经济增速预期，并强调特朗普关税政策是通胀上行的最大因素。但已经连续 3 周下跌的美股市场将焦点聚焦于自己最期待的保证——如果经济形势恶化，美联储将采取行动。一个明确的“救市”信号是——从 4 月 1 日起放缓资产负债表缩减速度，将美债减持上限从每月 250 亿美元调整至 50 亿美元，缩表减缓被视作对债市的提振。美联储通过对市场的下跌做出相对“鸽派”回应，表明自己在完成通胀目标的路上，随时关注者就业和权益市场的稳定，以防出现更大的危机。在降息中继和美国总统关税混乱的角力中，虽然美联储依然在坚持立场，但态度无疑开始软化。无论是两次降息指引，还是美债减持上限调低，均被理解为对股债下跌的呵护。所以，虽然根本性的问题“关税政策混乱”、“经济滞涨”没有任何基本面上的改变，但经历下跌地市场开始企稳回升。美元指数周涨 0.25% 。纳指、标普 500 和道琼斯实现周内上涨 0.17% 、 0.51% 和 1.2% 。2 年期和 10 年期美债收益率分别下跌 1.59% 和 1.39% ，至 3.9670% 、 4.2580% 。另一部分资金继续选择避险黄金。伦敦金实现 3 周连涨，本周上涨 1.23% ，收于 3023.31 美元/盎司。<h2>稳定币及 BTC Spot ETF</h2>资金方面，最大变量 BTC Spot ETF 出现突破信号，在连续 5 周下跌之后本周迎来正流入，全周 5 个交易日全部录得净流入，共计 10.5 亿美元。这种大规模流入成为 BTC 价格触底反弹的有力支撑。稳定币方面，全周流入 9.58 亿美元。这样全渠道共计流入 19.50 亿美元，为充满恐慌的市场提供了物质支撑。<img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/feed/6e725b61a8a76f51102304b0e9ab6cd1.jpg">加密市场资金流入流出统计（eMerge Engine）BTC Spot ETF 通道资金再次显示出定海神针的作用。后继市场走势，需对此保持密切关注。当然，BTC Spot ETF 资金基本受制美股走势，这使得预测 BTC 价格难度极大。<h2>抛压与抛售</h2>伴随价格反弹，市场抛压也大幅减弱降低至 114992 枚。据 eMerge Engine 数据显示，本周长手减持 3284 枚，短手减持 111709 枚。长手持仓全周增加 7.3 万枚，交易所存量减少近 7000 枚。短手群体的抛压被持续吸收，表明长线群体对于目前价格的认可。<h2>周期指标</h2>据 eMerge 引擎，EMC BTC Cycle Metrics 指标为 0.375 ，市场处于上升中继期。<h2>关于 EMC Labs</h2>EMC Labs 由加密资产投资人和数据科学家于 2023 年 4 月创建。专注区块链产业研究及 Crypto 二级市场投资，以产业前瞻、洞察及数据挖掘为核心竞争力，致力于以研究和投资方式参与蓬勃发展的区块链产业，推动区块链及加密资产为人类带来福祉。更多信息请访问：https://www.emc.fund

美联储“放鸽”，ETF资金流入，BTC反弹至关键价位(03.17~03.23)

BTC Spot ETF channels recorded net inflows for all five trading days of the week, totaling $1.05 billion, becoming the material support for BTC's rebound.

The market, project, currency, and other information, views, and judgments mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.<img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/feed/ecd4387e8f92350d0ca68bfb28c08d54.jpg">This week, BTC opened at $82,562.50, closed at $86,092.94, rising 4.28% for the week, with a volatility of 7.71%, continuing two weeks of gains, while trading volume declined for three weeks. BTC price is running within a downward channel, approaching the upper boundary.

This week, the Federal Reserve made a dovish statement at the monetary policy meeting, indicating they would intervene if economic issues arise and hinting at two rate cuts this year.

After US stocks stabilized and ETF channel funds surged, BTC stabilized and rebounded to the upper boundary of the downward channel.

With the upcoming release of the US PCE data next week, BTC price will also face a directional choice.

<h2>Macroeconomic and Economic Data</h2>

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The Fed “let go”, ETF funds flowed in, and BTC rebounded to the key price (03.17~03.23)

On March 24, according to 4E monitoring, last week's dovish remarks by the Federal Reserve and Trump's flexible stance on reciprocal tariffs alternately boosted US stock market confidence. The three major indices collectively rose after significant fluctuations: the Dow Jones rose 1.2% cumulatively, marking its largest weekly gain in over two months; the S&P 500 rose 0.51%, ending a four-week losing streak; the Nasdaq rose slightly by 0.17%, halting its previous four-week decline. However, major tech stocks generally fell on the week, with NVIDIA dropping 3.26% and Tesla falling 0.53%, continuing its nine-week decline.

The crypto market showed oscillating but overall mild upward momentum. Bitcoin dipped near $81,000 on Tuesday before rebounding, and on Thursday, driven by dovish Fed remarks, surged above $87,000, creating a half-month high, then mostly oscillated around $84,000. This morning it saw another rapid increase, reporting at $85,721 before press time, up 3.18% over the past 7 days. Other mainstream tokens mostly showed slight gains, with Ethereum striving to stabilize above $2,000, and the BNB chain's meme trend continuing to attract attention. Market recovery signs are gradually emerging, with investor sentiment improving.

In forex and commodities, the US dollar index rose 0.34% weekly, its first weekly increase this month. The Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East situation continue to develop, with crude oil rising over 2% for two consecutive weeks. Spot gold rose 1.31% cumulatively last week, marking three weeks of gains.

Last week, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates as expected, with guidance still indicating two rate cuts this year, and Powell's remarks also brought some market comfort. This week's focus is on Friday's PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator. Additionally, with the "tariff deadline" on April 2 approaching, uncertainty keeps the market cautious. However, once the tariff outlook becomes clearer, the market volatility of recent weeks may subside.

<eeee.com>, as a financial trading platform supporting crypto currencies, stock indices, commodities, gold, and forex, recently launched a USDT stablecoin financial product with an 8% annual yield, providing potential hedging options for investors. 4E reminds you to be aware of market volatility risks and allocate assets reasonably.

4E: US stocks and crypto markets are recovering, this week's focus is on the US PCE price index in February

<Hotcoin Research> Market Insights: March 17-21, 2025.
Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $2.83 trillion, with BTC accounting for 60.6%, valued at $1.72 trillion. The stablecoin market capitalization is $230.3 billion, with a 7-day increase of 0.87%, of which USDT represents 62.46%.
This week, BTC's price shows range-bound oscillation, currently priced at $83,936; ETH also displays range-bound oscillation, currently priced at $1,967.
CoinMarketCap top 200...

The Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate remained unchanged in March, and BSC set off a MEME trend again

<Odaily> Planet Daily News: QCP Capital stated that with BTC and ETH returning above $85,000 and $2,000 respectively, the crypto market saw a mild rebound over the weekend, mainly driven by US stock futures' recovery. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's "dovish" speech at the FOMC meeting last week eased market tension, with the crypto fear and greed index rising from 32% last week to 45% this week. Notably, BTC spot ETF recorded a net inflow of 8,775 BTC (approximately $744 million) last week, ending weeks of capital outflow, indicating that liquidity might be starting to flow back into the crypto market. Currently, perpetual contract open interest remains low, and funding rates are stabilizing, suggesting this rebound may be driven by spot trading rather than leverage. Despite the ETF inflow boost, QCP remains cautious about the crypto market's continued rise. The new tariff policy set to be implemented on April 2nd may again put pressure on risk assets. The current options market shows a neutral wait-and-see sentiment, with implied volatility across all terms continuing to decline, and risk reversal falling back to a neutral level, showing a significant easing compared to last week's pronounced bearish skew. QCP says it will monitor whether this rally repeats last Monday's pattern - a rapid pullback within 48 hours after Sunday's rise.