Odaily星球日报讯 经纪公司伯恩斯坦分析师 Gautam Chhugani 认为，当前周期“仍处于早期阶段”，在最支持加密货币的美国政府背景下，加密货币能够从投机性资产类别转型为基于实用性的数字资本市场，他解释说：“我们仍然相信 10 万美元的比特币价格水平不是周期顶峰，比特币市场还有很大后劲，预计比特币将在 2025 年底达到 20 万美元的周期峰值，如果 2025 年市场仍然对宏观经济和特朗普破坏风险感到不安，可能会看到比特币周期高点的实现被推迟，并且我们可能会看到比特币牛市周期延长到 2026 年。”（The Block）

Odaily星球日报讯 经纪公司伯恩斯坦分析师 Gautam Chhugani 认为，当前周期“仍处于早期阶段”，在最支持加密货币的美国政府背景下，加密货币能够从投机性资产类别转型为基于实用性的数字资本市场，他解释说：“我们仍然相信 10 万美元的比特币价格水平不是周期顶峰，比特币市场还有很大后劲，预计比特币将在 2025 年底达到 20 万美元的周期峰值，如果 2025 年市场仍然对宏观经济和特朗普破坏风险感到不安，可能会看到比特币周期高点的实现被推迟，并且我们可能会看到比特币牛市周期延长到 2026 年。”（The Block）

伯恩斯坦：10万美元不是BTC本轮周期顶峰，预计年底将达20万美元

Odaily reports that Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani believes the current cycle "is still in the early stages." Against the backdrop of a U.S. government that is supportive of cryptocurrencies, cryptocurrencies can transform from speculative asset classes to digital capital markets based on utility. He explained: "We still believe that the $100,000 Bitcoin price level is not the cycle peak, and the Bitcoin market still has a lot of momentum. We expect Bitcoin to reach a cycle peak of $200,000 by the end of 2025. If the market remains concerned about macroeconomic and Trump disruption risks in 2025, we may see the realization of the Bitcoin cycle peak delayed, and we may see the Bitcoin bull market cycle extended to 2026." (<The Block>)

Bernstein: $100,000 is not the peak of this cycle of BTC, and it is expected to reach $200,000 by the end of the year

Odaily reports that according to a research report from the decentralized crypto-based options platform Derive, the calm recovery in the BTC market may be temporary and could lay the groundwork for a storm that triggers significant price volatility. Since March 12, BTC has stabilized in the range of $80,000 to $85,000, and this consolidation typically occurs after a significant directional change. Due to various factors, including tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump and disappointment over the lack of new purchases for the US strategic BTC reserve, the price plummeted from $100,000 to below $80,000 in the past few weeks. With the recent consolidation, key volatility indicators have declined, approaching monthly lows. However, volatility has a mean-reverting nature, which means the low-volatility mechanism may soon pave the way for price turbulence. (CoinDesk)

Viewpoint: Bitcoin’s current stability is temporary, and it will soon experience large price fluctuations

Headline
▌BTC falls below $82,000
The market shows that BTC has fallen below $82,000, currently trading at $81,998.01, a 24-hour decline of 2.81%. The market is highly volatile, please manage your risks accordingly.
▌Bitcoin is experiencing a "shakeout" rather than the end of the four-year cycle
The current price of Bitcoin is 22% lower than the historical high of $109,000 set on January 20, the day of Trump's inauguration. Although investor sentiment has repeatedly fallen into the "extreme fear" zone, most cryptocurrency analysts believe that the Bitcoin bull market cycle has not yet ended, and this decline may be a "shakeout" - that is...

BTC falls below $82,000 Bitcoin is experiencing a "shock"

Odaily reports that analyst Timothy Peterson pointed out in a new chart report that Bitcoin is about to enter its traditional strong months - the "golden window" of April and October. If the historical seasonal pattern repeats, Bitcoin is expected to challenge $126,000 before June 1, representing over 50% upside potential from the current price of $82,967. He stated that Bitcoin's current price is already close to the lower end of the historical seasonal volatility range, and emphasized in his chart analysis that "the average duration of Bitcoin being below the trend line is only 4 months, and the red dotted trend line points to a target of $126,000 on June 1, which is highly consistent with the explosive pace after the bull market correction." The data shows that there have been five corrections of more than 20% so far in the current cycle since 2023, but each correction has been followed by stronger upside. The bull market has not yet departed, and the current is just a short-term correction. Market observers generally believe that Bitcoin's correlation with traditional financial assets has increased, and it may be affected by short-term fluctuations in U.S. stocks, but its unique deflationary attributes and geopolitical hedging demand will allow it to break out an independent trend before June.