Extremely flat market
Short-term investors have seen the market capitalization drop from $443 billion to $282 billion, which is one of the most important factors behind the short-term weakness of the market
The Bitcoin halving in 2024 and the approval of the Bitcoin ETF by the US will usher in a Bitcoin bull market, but due to the high interest rate environment of the Federal Reserve and the continuous harvesting by VC institutions, the Altcoin sector without a new ecological narrative continues to decline.
From past cycles, the birth and continuation of a bull market requires two conditions: an ecological narrative and a monetary easing policy in the US. Both of these are currently lacking, which is why the current market is experiencing a differentiated trend
Time window: Looking at past financial market fluctuations, a brutal market crash event will occur before each major bull market, which will completely blow up the long positions or force investors to cut their losses at low levels, and only then will the bull market arrive, and the vehicle will be lighter
Due to the excessive harvesting by VC institutions this round and the fragmentation of Ethereum's liquidity, the development of the ecosystem has indeed been suppressed, but there is still a foundation for an outbreak, and the institutions are waiting for an opportunity: it would be best if the market experiences another major crash, and then either the ecological narrative rises, or the Federal Reserve implements monetary easing
Trump is preparing to use all means to strengthen the US dollar hegemony + debt reduction + help the US economy "detoxify"
Short-term recession in the US
Planning a trade war + short-term recession is one of the means, the purpose is to force the Federal Reserve to ease + release US dollar liquidity. Only when liquidity is released will we see a true bull market
However, the trade war and short-term recession are following a script, and although they appear chaotic, they are essentially controllable, and the ultimate outcome will lead to a bull market
Personally, I don't think BTC is likely to fall below $70,000. As I said before, the fundamentals are still very stable, and the $70,000 to $75,000 range is what I consider a good buy the dips zone
Bitcoin strategic reserve
The Trump administration may purchase BTC for strategic reserves, but not with taxpayer money, it will likely be done by selling existing government assets
State governments in the US with large US dollar and Euro reserves, as well as other countries, are also likely to follow suit, not to kowtow to Trump, but because this operation is inherently profitable
So I fully believe that the market has the opportunity to crash and provide a chance to get on board
Brothers, come and gather here!
Recently, WeChat group control has been quite severe, and the WeChat groups I was in have been repeatedly banned, causing the brothers who had previously joined the community to lose contact with the organization, and my previous WeChat account has also been blocked, making it impossible to respond to your messages in a timely manner. The WeChat group has now been recreated, whether you are an old friend or a new one, if you want to join the WeChat group, you can scan the QR code below to add my new WeChat! (If you haven't been added, try a few more times, and if I haven't replied to your message, it's because of risk control, just read the latest article and add me.)
Group content:
We will add a regular investment strategy, selection of targets and entry timing, and position allocation. If you are interested, please scan the QR code below!
Mainly spot trading, we will provide overall market trend analysis and layout in advance, potential coin layout in advance, follow the cycle changes, and recommend Altcoins with opportunities
We will choose more strong coins, try to get a few of them for small bets on big wins, as the market is stirring again, we will definitely need coins with strong wealth effect to ignite the new bull market, catch one and make a big profit, catch a few and make a killing
Reasonable control of positions, mainstream as the bottom line, Altcoins for appreciation
