In the previous article (March 12), we briefly discussed the future direction of the cryptocurrency market. Different people may have different ideas or views, and no one can really predict the future of the market, but one thing is certain - the market cycle has certain regularity, but the market is also constantly evolving.
In fact, looking back at some of our previous articles (such as those from 2022 and 2023), some of the views we considered relatively reasonable or correct at the time may no longer be fully applicable today.
In this cycle, we have witnessed many changes or new unbelievable events, such as:
1) The MemeCoin Season seems to have replaced the previous Altcoin Season.
2) While Bitcoin reached the $100,000 milestone and broke new highs multiple times, the Altcoin king ETH did not even surpass its historical high in this bull market, and its current price is the same as 4 years ago.
3) The number of projects (tokens) has increased exponentially.
4) In 2024, the BTC ETF and ETH ETF were finally approved, and more ETFs for Altcoins such as DOGE, XRP, LTC, SOL, and ADA are currently under review (although the SEC has now delayed the approval of these Altcoin ETFs, and the probability of approval in the second half of this year may be higher given the overall market performance).
5) In 2025, the United States will include Bitcoin in its strategic reserve plan (executive order).
6) Institutions are actively accumulating Bitcoin and some Altcoins.
In short, we seem to be following the existing historical cycle rules while constantly witnessing some new differences or new history.
From an investment perspective, in this cycle, some old "cabbage" investors who have stuck to their traditional investment mindset have suffered losses, especially those who have focused their investment on Altcoin value investment strategies.
As for the future, it seems difficult for Bitcoin to experience another violent "bull run" due to the excessive attention it has received (this cycle's winners or losers have basically all turned to focus on Bitcoin in the long term). The market's new changes and new operating models may make it difficult to see the traditional Altcoin Season (where Altcoins flourish after Bitcoin reaches a certain historical high), and we may only see periodic "MemeCoin Season", "Trump Season", "AI Season" and other mini Altcoin Seasons.
Unless there is a fundamental change in liquidity, where the crypto market sees a massive influx of new capital to support the collective surge of all Altcoins, the traditional "all coins soaring" Altcoin Season is unlikely to occur. In the near future, liquidity will still be mainly concentrated on BTC and a few Altcoins, while most Altcoins may face insufficient or continuously decreasing liquidity.
We need to understand the historical analogy properly - the market is constantly evolving, and we need to adapt and study the new scenarios of the current cycle.
At the current stage, people's views are quite divided, with some believing that the market has already started a bear market, some believing that this is just a technical correction (the biggest bull run is yet to come), and some believing that the bull market has just begun. As for my personal opinion, I have already shared it in the previous series of articles. I think there may still be some new opportunities this year (but not on a large scale), but I can't see too far into the future, so let's just focus on the possible situation in May-June this year.
Moreover, everyone has a different definition of bull and bear markets. Some believe that as long as the price breaks below the MA200, it is a bear market, while others believe that it is a bear market only when falls below $50,000... Let's just forget about bull and bear markets, as we mentioned in our previous articles. We only need to focus on and identify a few important stages (such as accumulation - rise - fall - despair - rise - fall - despair - re-accumulation). It's not that you will lose money in a bear market and make money in a bull market. In fact, no matter whether it is the so-called bull market or bear market, as long as the market is still there and there is still liquidity, there are opportunities. We need to go with the trend, but also go against the trend.
Let's talk about these today. The sources of the pictures/data mentioned in the text have been supplemented in the Notion of the talk. The above content is just my personal perspective and analysis, and is only for learning and exchange, and does not constitute any investment advice.
