Odaily星球日报讯 Tickmill 的分析师 Joseph Dahrieh 在一份报告中表示，美国 CPI 通胀数据可能使美国国债收益率朝任何一个方向移动。高于预期的 CPI 可能会提振收益率，并缓和最近对美联储降息的预期。相反，通胀数据走软将导致收益率下降。他还表示，近期乌克兰和俄罗斯之间可能达成的停火取得进展，这将有助于提升风险偏好。目前机构对分析师的调查显示，美国 2 月份总体和核心通胀率预计将略微下降。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 Tickmill 的分析师 Joseph Dahrieh 在一份报告中表示，美国 CPI 通胀数据可能使美国国债收益率朝任何一个方向移动。高于预期的 CPI 可能会提振收益率，并缓和最近对美联储降息的预期。相反，通胀数据走软将导致收益率下降。他还表示，近期乌克兰和俄罗斯之间可能达成的停火取得进展，这将有助于提升风险偏好。目前机构对分析师的调查显示，美国 2 月份总体和核心通胀率预计将略微下降。（金十）

分析师：美国CPI数据可能会将美债收益率推向任意方向

Here is the English translation:

Odaily reported that Tickmill's analyst Joseph Dahrieh stated in a report that the US CPI inflation data may cause US Treasury yields to move in either direction. Higher-than-expected CPI could boost yields and ease recent expectations of a Fed rate cut. Conversely, softer inflation data would lead to a decline in yields. He also mentioned that the potential ceasefire progress between Ukraine and Russia could help boost risk appetite. Currently, institutional surveys show that the overall and core inflation rates in the US for February are expected to decline slightly. (Jinshi)

Here is the English translation:

Odaily reported that Tickmill's analyst Joseph Dahrieh stated in a report that the US CPI inflation data may cause US Treasury yields to move in either direction. Higher-than-expected CPI could boost yields and ease recent expectations of a Fed rate cut. Conversely, softer inflation data would lead to a decline in yields. He also mentioned that the potential ceasefire progress between Ukraine and Russia could help boost risk appetite. Current institutional surveys show that the overall and core inflation rates in the US for February are expected to decline slightly. (Jinshi)

Analyst: US CPI data could push US bond yields in either direction

Analyst Jinze pointed out that the February CPI data will be released, and the market consensus expects inflation to decline slightly; it is necessary to see a month-on-month decline to 0.2 or lower in order to reassure the market to <long>, otherwise, if the actual data is higher than expected, the market may experience another plunge. The future risk is that import data is usually lagging by 1-2 months, even if this data does not reflect the relevant impact, the CPI in March-April is also likely to face a second impact.

Analyst: February CPI data may become a market indicator, higher than expected may trigger a crypto crash

Here is the English translation:

The real test will come in March-April CPI.
The US February CPI data will be released this Wednesday, and the market consensus expects: inflation may decline slightly.
Even if the data meets expectations (overall CPI MoM +0.3%, core +0.3%), the annualized inflation rate will still be as high as 3.9%, nearly double the Fed's target, and it is far from an optimistic moment.
We need to see a MoM decline to 0.2 or lower for the market to feel comfortable going <long>, but we need to be wary of data noise (such as energy price fluctuations); if the actual data is unfortunately higher than expected, the market may see another plunge.
[Opinion: The CPI on Wednesday may cool down, ...]

Wednesday's CPI "cooling down ≠ safety", the peak of tariff impact will take 3 to 6 months to appear

Odaily reports that QCP Capital released a market analysis today, pointing out that the escalation of global trade tensions has put pressure on market sentiment, and a new round of tariffs may be implemented on April 2. The 25% steel and aluminum tariffs that took effect today have triggered retaliation from the EU, which plans to implement 260 billion euros (220 billion pounds) in tariffs starting in April.

Market volatility has increased: the VIX index surged to 28 and then fell back to 26.6, and the Cboe VIX futures curve has entered a state of inversion, suggesting that the market may be approaching the bottom.

Tonight's CPI data may determine the market's interest rate expectations. The current market expects the Fed to cut rates 4 times in 2024, up from 1 time previously, but the unexpected rise in January's CPI has made the market doubtful about the easing of inflation, and investors remain cautious.

In the crypto market, the SEC has postponed the approval of XRP, SOL, LTC, ADA, and DOGE ETFs to May, and will hold a crypto regulatory roundtable on March 21 to discuss the classification and regulatory framework of crypto assets.

The Bitcoin ETF has seen a net outflow of $154 million, with GBTC selling 641 BTC (worth $56.45 million) in a single day, indicating that the cautious sentiment of institutional investors is rising.

The market will closely monitor whether the CPI data confirms the trend of easing inflation, and the progress of ETF approvals and the results of the regulatory meeting may also affect the short-term trend of the crypto market.

QCP Capital: Market expectations for the Fed's rate cuts are rising. At the beginning of the year, only one rate cut was expected, but now it has been raised to four