Odaily星球日报讯 由于担心美国总统特朗普的贸易战将导致全球经济陷入衰退，美国经济增长预测已被大幅下调。 高盛表示，由于特朗普发起了大规模的全球关税，美国经济今年的增长率预计仅为 1.7%，低于之前的 2.4%的预测。高盛的此次下调反映出华尔街对特朗普政府的担忧日益增长，在特朗普拒绝排除美国经济衰退的可能性后，美股周一暴跌，以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数下跌幅度高达 3.9%，标普 500 指数下跌 1.5%。高盛预测，美国目前面临 20%的衰退风险，经济学家认为，一旦经济威胁的前景变得清晰，特朗普将淡化关税。

Odaily星球日报讯 由于担心美国总统特朗普的贸易战将导致全球经济陷入衰退，美国经济增长预测已被大幅下调。高盛表示，由于特朗普发起了大规模的全球关税，美国经济今年的增长率预计仅为 1.7%，低于之前的 2.4%的预测。高盛的此次下调反映出华尔街对特朗普政府的担忧日益增长，在特朗普拒绝排除美国经济衰退的可能性后，美股周一暴跌，以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数下跌幅度高达 3.9%，标普 500 指数下跌 1.5%。高盛预测，美国目前面临 20%的衰退风险，经济学家认为，一旦经济威胁的前景变得清晰，特朗普将淡化关税。

高盛下调美国经济预测，存在20%的衰退风险

Odaily reports that due to concerns that US President Trump's trade war will lead to a global economic recession, the US economic growth forecast has been significantly downgraded. Goldman Sachs said that due to Trump's large-scale global tariffs, the US economy's growth rate this year is expected to be only 1.7%, lower than the previous 1.7% forecast. Goldman Sachs' downgrade reflects Wall Street's growing concerns about the Trump administration, and after Trump refused to rule out the possibility of a US economic recession, US stocks plummeted on Monday, with the Nasdaq index, dominated by tech stocks, falling as much as 3.9%, and the S&P 500 index falling 1.5%. Goldman Sachs predicts that the US currently faces a 20% recession risk, and economists believe that once the prospect of an economic threat becomes clear, Trump will downplay tariffs.

Goldman Sachs cuts US economic forecast, citing 20% recession risk

According to the news from Mars Finance, the economists at the Wall Street investment bank JPMorgan Chase have raised the risk of economic recession this year from 30% at the beginning of 2025 to 40%. The Wall Street Journal reported that the analysts wrote: "Due to the extreme policies in the United States, we believe the risk of the US falling into a recession this year is high." Previously, Morgan Stanley economists last week lowered their economic growth forecast and raised their inflation forecast. The bank predicts that the GDP growth rate in 2025 will be only 1.5%, and will drop to 1.2% in 2026. Goldman Sachs economists have also raised the 12-month probability of economic recession from 15% to 20%.

Investors flee risk assets as JPMorgan raises recession odds to 40%

Odaily Odaily report: US Treasury Secretary Howard Lutnick recently refuted the possibility of an economic recession, saying that Trump's tariff policy will drive $1.3 trillion in new investment and unleash the growth potential of the US. However, despite Lutnick's optimistic attitude, cryptocurrency traders lack confidence in the market, with Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies plummeting. Although the resilience of the labor market has temporarily contained expectations of an economic recession, the GDPNow model of the US Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta predicts that GDP growth in the first quarter will be -2.8%, indicating signs of slowing growth (CoinDesk).

US Treasury Secretary Roenicke denies possibility of recession

Odaily reports that AJBell investment analyst Dan Coatsworth said, "The sell-off in the US market is starting to look very bad. For some time, many have been concerned that US stock market valuations are too high and have been looking for a catalyst for a market correction. Concerns about the trade war, geopolitical tensions, and uncertainty about the economic outlook may be that catalyst." "Trump was seen as the savior of the market, promising to cut taxes and ease regulations. Now his actions have become an omen of doom. When people think about whether trade tariffs will backfire and lead to a recession rather than a prosperous US economy, the R-word (Recession) is back on everyone's lips." "During Trump's first term, he often touted the stock market's rise as a representation of his success. Therefore, he may not want to see the market collapse completely just a few months into his second term."