Here is the English translation of the text, with the specified terms retained and not translated:
The growing concerns over the US economic recession led to a significant drop in the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market on March 10. Even though the White House tried to alleviate market panic, several Wall Street investment banks and major asset management firms have raised their forecasts for the probability of an economic recession from the initial 15% at the beginning of the year to 20% to 40%, indicating a serious loss of investor confidence.
Traditional Financial Giants: Recession Risk Rises
The
Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reports that JPMorgan's economists have raised the likelihood of a US recession in 2025 from 30% at the beginning of the year to 40%. The bank's analysts believe that the current US policies are too extreme, significantly increasing the downside risks to the economy.
At the same time, Goldman Sachs' economists have also raised the possibility of the US falling into a recession within the next 12 months, from 15% to 20%. If the Trump administration persists with its policies despite the deteriorating economic data, the recession probability may further increase.
Additionally, Morgan Stanley's economists have revised down their economic growth forecast and raised their inflation expectations last week; they expect the US GDP growth rate to be only 1.5% in 2025 and further slow down to 1.2% in 2026.
Previously, the GDPNow model of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta had significantly lowered its forecast for US GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025, from 3.9% to -2.4%, raising concerns about an economic recession.
The White House Tries to Calm the Market: Just a Transitional Phase
Despite the deepening market concerns, Kevin Hassett, the economic advisor to President Trump, tried to alleviate the recession worries in an interview with
CNBC on March 10, stating that the US economy still has many reasons to be optimistic, and the current volatility in economic data is just a "short-term hiccup."
Trump also indirectly responded to the market's recession concerns in an interview with
Fox News on March 9, stating that the US economy is "going through a transition period."
Tech Stocks Plummet
In recent days, the US stock market has experienced a major sell-off, with many tech stocks plummeting, seemingly signaling the end of the "Trump Bump" effect. The S&P 500 index is now trading below the pre-election level of November 5 last year.
Yesterday, the S&P 500 index fell 2.7%, reaching a new low since September last year; the tech-heavy Nasdaq index plunged 4%, recording its worst single-day performance since 2022; the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled nearly 900 points, a 2.1% decline.
At the same time, the market value of the "Magnificent 7" US tech giants evaporated by more than $750 billion in a single day. Among them, Tesla plummeted 15%, becoming the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500 this year. Nvidia fell 5.1%, Apple fell 4.9%, Meta fell 4.4%, and Alphabet fell 4.5%.
The Cryptocurrency Market Also Suffers
Undoubtedly, the cryptocurrency market has also experienced a violent sell-off, with the total market capitalization falling 7.5% on March 11 to $2.6 trillion, with around $240 billion in funds flowing out of the market. The price of BTC dropped below $77,000, declining about 4% on the day.
Gold bull Peter Schiff also mocked Trump's BTC reserves, saying the high volatility of the asset's value completely undermines the legitimacy and rationality of the government's adoption.
Cryptocurrency investments carry high risks, and their prices may fluctuate dramatically, potentially resulting in the loss of your entire principal. Please carefully evaluate the risks.
