火星财经消息，华尔街投行摩根大通的经济学家将今年的经济衰退风险从 2025 年初的 30% 上调至 40%。《华尔街日报》 称，分析师写道：“由于美国的极端政策，我们认为美国今年陷入衰退的风险很大。”此前消息，摩根士丹利经济学家上周下调了经济增长预期，并上调了通胀预期。该行预测 2025 年 GDP 增长率仅为 1.5%，2026 年将降至 1.2%。高盛经济学家也将 12 个月经济衰退概率从 15% 上调至 20%。

<div>火星财经消息，华尔街投行摩根大通的经济学家将今年的经济衰退风险从 2025 年初的 30% 上调至 40%。《华尔街日报》 称，分析师写道：“由于美国的极端政策，我们认为美国今年陷入衰退的风险很大。”此前消息，摩根士丹利经济学家上周下调了经济增长预期，并上调了通胀预期。该行预测 2025 年 GDP 增长率仅为 1.5%，2026 年将降至 1.2%。高盛经济学家也将 12 个月经济衰退概率从 15% 上调至 20%。</div>

摩根大通将经济衰退几率上调至  40%，投资者纷纷逃离风险资产

According to the news from Mars Finance, the economists at the Wall Street investment bank JPMorgan Chase have raised the risk of economic recession this year from 30% at the beginning of 2025 to 40%. The Wall Street Journal reported that the analysts wrote: "Due to the extreme policies in the United States, we believe the risk of the US falling into a recession this year is high." Previously, Morgan Stanley economists last week lowered their economic growth forecast and raised their inflation forecast. The bank predicts that the GDP growth rate in 2025 will be only 1.5%, and will drop to 1.2% in 2026. Goldman Sachs economists have also raised the 12-month probability of economic recession from 15% to 20%.

According to the news from Mars Finance, the economists at the Wall Street investment bank JPMorgan Chase have raised the risk of economic recession this year from the initial 30% at the beginning of 2025 to 40%. The Wall Street Journal reported that the analysts wrote: "Due to the extreme policies in the United States, we believe the risk of the US falling into a recession this year is high." Previously, Morgan Stanley economists had revised down their economic growth forecast and raised their inflation forecast last week. The bank predicts that the GDP growth rate in 2025 will be only 1.5%, and it will drop to 1.2% in 2026. Goldman Sachs economists have also raised the probability of a 12-month economic recession from 15% to 20%.

Investors flee risk assets as JPMorgan raises recession odds to 40%

Given Trump's chaotic tariff policy and the federal government's layoff initiatives, bond traders are signaling that the risk of a US economic stagnation is increasing.

Within less than two months of Trump's presidency, people had speculated that he would inject stimulus measures to expand the US economy and continue to exert upward pressure on US Treasury yields, but such speculation is quickly being cast aside. Instead, traders have been heavily buying short-term US Treasuries, and the yield on the two-year Treasury has fallen sharply since mid-February, with the market expecting the Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts as early as June to prevent...

Market sentiment takes a sharp turn: Trump trade turns into recession trade?

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The recent volatility in the cryptocurrency market has attracted widespread attention. BTC has fallen 27.4% from its all-time high of $110,000, and the global crypto market cap has evaporated over $1.2 trillion. Against this backdrop, several institutional experts and key opinion leaders (KOLs) have shared their views on the market trend, trying to answer a core question: Has the price drop bottomed out? The following is a summary and analysis of these views.

Institutional Perspectives
Cathie Wood: The end of a rolling recession, policy space is favorable for the long-term outlook
ARK Invest founder Cathie W...

Has the market fallen to its limit? This is what institutions and KOLs think

The Securities and Exchange Commission of Thailand has officially approved USDT and USDC, paving the way for stablecoins to participate in the payment system and drive the potential of remittances and cross-border transactions.