Monday (March 10): Trump Meets with US Tech Leaders
One of the focal points this week is the meeting between US President Donald Trump and tech executives (including HP, Intel, IBM, and Qualcomm). This meeting is expected to discuss the policy direction of the Trump administration in terms of trade, tariffs, and export restrictions. Since Trump's re-election, his "America First" policy has once again become a hot topic in the market, especially the potential impact on the tech supply chain and the development of artificial intelligence.- Background and Impact: Trump recently signed an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, although the content did not meet market expectations, his attitude towards the tech industry is closely watched. If the meeting involves export restrictions or tariff hikes on China, it could further disrupt the global semiconductor supply chain and affect the performance of tech stocks. The market will closely monitor whether Trump will reveal specific policy details and the response from tech company executives.
- Market Expectations: Optimists believe this could drive US domestic tech investment, while pessimists are concerned that tariff policies could exacerbate inflationary pressures and weaken corporate profitability.
Tuesday (March 11): US and Ukraine Officials Meet in Saudi Arabia & Lawmakers to Release "Major Bitcoin Plan"
US and Ukrainian officials will hold talks in Saudi Arabia, which may be a continuation of negotiations related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.- Background and Impact: Geopolitical tensions have been one of the risk factors for global markets. If this meeting addresses energy supply or sanctions adjustments, it could have a direct impact on oil prices and commodity markets. As the host country, Saudi Arabia's stance on energy policy will also be closely watched.
- Market Expectations: The specific agenda of the talks is not yet clear, but any signals regarding a ceasefire or easing of sanctions could trigger optimism in the market, while the opposite could exacerbate the demand for safe-haven assets.
Wednesday (March 12): Multiple Key Data and Events
Wednesday will be the highlight of the week, with the release of several key events and data:16:45 (CET): ECB President Lagarde's Speech ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech at the ECB and its Observers' Annual Conference. The recent economic weakness in the Eurozone and inflation gradually approaching the 2% target, the market generally expects Lagarde to maintain a dovish stance, which may pave the way for further rate cuts.
- Market Expectations: If Lagarde hints at rate cuts in March or subsequent meetings, the euro may come under pressure, while European stocks may receive support from the expectation of easing.
20:30 (EDT): US February CPI Data The US February Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released, including the unadjusted CPI year-over-year, seasonally adjusted CPI month-over-month, core CPI month-over-month, and year-over-year. The market expects the February CPI year-over-year to remain around 3.2%, with the core CPI potentially declining slightly.
- Background and Impact: CPI data is a key reference indicator for the Fed's March interest rate decision. After Trump took office, his tariff policy may have pushed up input-driven inflation, while Fed Chair Powell has recently stated that the economy is robust and there is no need to rush to cut rates. If CPI rises above expectations, it may strengthen the expectation of the Fed pausing rate cuts, leading to a stronger US dollar and higher US bond yields.
- Market Expectations: Investors will focus on the trend of core CPI, as it may indicate easing inflationary pressures and could boost the stock market, while the opposite could trigger risk-off sentiment.
21:45 (EDT): Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision The Bank of Canada will announce its latest interest rate decision. Given the slowdown in the Canadian economy and the moderation of inflation, the market expects it may continue to cut rates to stimulate the economy.
- Market Expectations: If the rate cut materializes, the Canadian dollar may weaken, and it could also have a spillover effect on the sentiment in the North American market.
Crypto Highlight: The modular blockchain network Hemi will officially launch its mainnet on the same day. Hemi aims to integrate Bitcoin and Ethereum into a "super network" and improve cross-chain interoperability through a modular design. The mainnet launch may attract developers and capital inflows, driving the price of its ecosystem token upward.
Thursday (March 13): US February PPI Data
20:30 (EDT): US February Producer Price Index (PPI) Year-over-Year and Month-over-Month PPI data reflects inflationary pressures on the production side and is a leading indicator for CPI. The January PPI year-over-year has already risen to 3%, and if the February data continues to rise, it may further confirm the concerns about input-driven inflation.
- Market Expectations: Considering Trump's tariff policy, if PPI exceeds expectations, it may exacerbate market speculation about the Fed's policy tightening, driving the US dollar and US bond yields higher.
Friday (March 14): Economic Data from Multiple Countries and US Inflation Expectations
- 15:00 (CET): Germany February CPI Month-over-Month Final As the largest economy in the Eurozone, Germany's inflation data has a significant impact on ECB policy. If the final value confirms a decline in February inflation, it may strengthen the rate cut expectations.
- UK Economic Data Including January 3-month GDP month-over-month, manufacturing production month-over-month, trade balance, and industrial production month-over-month. The UK economy has recently faced the risk of stagflation, and if the data is weak, it may further weigh on the British pound.
- 22:00 (EDT): US March Inflation Expectations and Consumer Sentiment Index The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index preliminary value and one-year inflation rate expectations will reflect US households' views on the future economy. The uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies may lead to fluctuations in confidence, and if inflation expectations rise, it may further impact the Fed's decision-making.
- Aptos (APT) will unlock $68.2 million worth of tokens, accounting for 1.92% of the circulating supply, at 06:00.
Additional Risk: Possibility of a US Government Shutdown
US government funding will expire at 12:01 am on March 15 (Saturday). If Congress and the Trump administration fail to reach an agreement, the US government will face the risk of a shutdown. The market generally believes this possibility is relatively high, as it is due to the disagreement between Trump and the Republican Party on the debt ceiling issue.
- Impact: A government shutdown could heighten market risk-off sentiment, potentially providing short-term support for the US dollar and US bonds, while putting pressure on stocks and risk assets.
Summary and Market Outlook
This week is packed with macroeconomic events, from Trump's tech policies, geopolitical talks, to key economic data in the US and Europe, all of which will provide important directional guidance for global markets.
- Optimistic scenario: If the CPI and PPI data are moderate, and Lagarde releases a clear dovish signal, and Trump's policies do not trigger new conflicts, the global stock market may see a rebound, and the US dollar may decline slightly.
- Pessimistic scenario: If the inflation data exceeds expectations, the risk of government shutdown increases, or Trump's policies exacerbate trade tensions, safe-haven assets (such as gold and the Japanese yen) may be in demand, while the stock market and commodity currencies may come under pressure.
Investors need to closely monitor the CPI data and Lagarde's speech on Wednesday, as they will be the main drivers of market volatility this week. At the same time, the potential risk of a US government shutdown should also be factored into the trading strategy. In the context of increasing uncertainty, flexibility and risk management will be the key to investment this week.
