Master Ye Talks About Hot Topics:
Followin' night I didn't stay up late to watch the live broadcast of the meeting, but when I got up in the morning, I saw that there was a lot of scolding, so I had a general idea. Trump raised everyone's expectations too high, and the result was that there was no substantial good news, so that's a bearish factor.
To put it bluntly, virtual currencies don't have such a powerful position at this stage, nor should they. Unless the US first clears up the gold and revalues it, and then uses the additional $800 billion in valuation to guarantee the issuance of US Treasuries to buy BTC. If done this way, the BTC will definitely skyrocket.
But in the long run, the US's credit will also go bankrupt, as they have started to pawn their family property. However, the decline of hegemony will eventually produce even more outrageous tricks, which is not uncommon. Anyway, this is called a rainbow fart conference, with a lot of nonsense and no new ideas. The market reaction is also quite direct, slapping them in the face.
Followin' night's non-farm data release, traders' bets on the Fed's 25 basis point rate cut on June 19 have heated up again. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut on June 19 has soared from 49.6% on Thursday to 56.8%. The hopes for rate cuts on March 20 and May 8 have basically cooled down. Hopefully everyone can get through May smoothly without being played to death by the market.
Speaking of which, since 2022, the market has never won against the Fed. Each time they were rubbed on the ground, their judgment was almost never in line with the Fed's. Now the market is guessing that the Fed will cut rates three times in 2025, and the March dot plot will be a big exam paper. However, Powell's repeated statement that the US economy is fine has given the market a little relief. Indeed, the non-farm data looks not bad, even quite good.
Followin' the short position I set up yesterday, at its most extreme, the floating profit was over 4,000 points. But when I saw someone come out and shouted that there would be an overnight surge, I just wanted to laugh. Can't you understand the market logic? For events like the crypto summit, the expectations are already digested a few days in advance, and the rally has already happened, right?
At this stage, to trade stably in the short term, you need to have a sense of direction for going long or short: after the opening, if the Strategy drops more than 3%, go short directly, and there's no problem dropping 3,000-5,000 points. US time yesterday, Strategy closed down, so the coin market is likely to be bearish during the day (before 6pm).
If the drop exceeds 5%, boldly short when you wake up in the morning. If the drop is less than 3% and the volatility is not large, there's no meat to eat during the day, so just take a break first, and then enter the short position after the 6pm rebound. Conversely, if Strategy closed up 8-12% yesterday, even if it surges in the second half of the night, it can only backtrack during the day (before 6pm) to go long. Simple and crude, that's how the ultra-short players can play for now.
Master Ye Looks at the Trend:
Resistance Levels:
First Resistance: 87,600
Second Resistance: 86,600
Support Levels:
First Support: 85,400
Second Support: 84,500
Suggestions for Today:
Although the market generally maintains a bearish outlook, due to the previous low point and the upward trend line, there will also be opportunities for a short-term rebound. If the current upward trend line can stabilize, the probability of reaching the first resistance is relatively high.
However, if the price breaks through the first resistance and then consolidates and forms a high point before falling back, the trend may be broken. The second resistance is an area where multiple moving averages overlap, so it can be judged as a strong resistance, and it is recommended to switch to a short-term correction mindset for operation.
Today, the first support can be set as an important support, which is the previous low point area of the large green candle and the large red candle. If it breaks below this line, the bullish trend may also be broken, and the perspective will then turn bearish.
Taking the first support and the upward trend line as the trading benchmark for today, the current price is still within the support range, so it is recommended to pay attention to the rebound opportunity. If it breaks below, the operation strategy needs to be adjusted.
The possibility of a bearish outlook cannot be completely ruled out at the moment, as Trump's moves have caused large price fluctuations. Considering that it is the weekend, Master Ye suggests quickly taking profits after obtaining a certain amount of profit, and gradually accumulating gains.
Master Ye's Wave Preset on 3/8:
Long Entry: 83,350-84,500 area, light position, Target: 85,400-86,600
Short Entry: 87,600-88,600 area, light position, Target: 86,600-85,400
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