The price of BITCOIN has been violently fluctuating between $80,000 and $90,000, no longer a calm game of technical charts, but a fiery battlefield of global capital and power struggles. The past "312" crash and "519" plunge had once made die-hard believers grit their teeth in a 50% bloodbath, and now, a $1,000 fluctuation is like a trigger for a landmine explosion - deafening, because the players have changed: retail investors swarming in, institutions heavily positioned, and governments getting involved. This morning, the Trump administration insider's release of the BITCOIN bill was like a heavy bomb, exploding the market's frenzy and strife.
The Hype Behind the Bill: A Strategic Reserve with No Substance
Reportedly, on March 7, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order establishing a "Strategic BITCOIN Reserve", touted as a historic step for the US to take the lead in the digital asset race. The order requires the US to retain its current BITCOIN holdings - around 200,000 BTC, worth $17 billion, mainly seized from criminal activities by the US Marshals Service - and conduct a comprehensive audit within six months. This is a symbolic gesture, echoing Trump's promise at last year's Nashville BITCOIN conference to hold "100% of the BITCOIN owned or obtained by the US government." However, the details reveal an obvious omission: no new purchase plan, no allocation of taxpayer funds, no aggressive accumulation strategy. This is not a reserve poised to reshape the market, but a status quo dressed in a shiny label.
In stark contrast, the market frenzy is fueled by a grand vision. Senator Cynthia Lummis' BITCOIN bill proposes the Treasury to purchase 1 million BTC over five years - $90 billion at current prices - by innovatively revaluing the US gold reserve. This plan is positioned as a hedge against the $36 trillion national debt and dollar decline, with Bernstein analysts predicting it could push BITCOIN above $200,000 by 2027. However, the executive order sidesteps this ambition, leaving the market with the empty shells of these expectations. As crypto advisor David Sacks clarified on X: "This is not about new spending, but managing existing assets."
For a market anticipating a supply shock, this is like a deflated balloon.
Market Dynamics: A Tug-of-War Between Hope and Reality, with Immediate Reactions
BITCOIN has been teetering under broader market pressures - the US stock market falling due to unrelated macroeconomic concerns. With the unwinding of leveraged positions, trading volume has surged, and posts on X reflect a sense of disappointment: "No purchase plan? This is nothing at all," mocked one user, while another warned, "Bearish in the short term, until things become clearer." The lack of fresh capital inflows has shattered the hopes of government-driven price appreciation, exposing BITCOIN's recent breaching of $90,000 as more dependent on speculative bubbles than fundamentals.
This is not an isolated misstep. Trump's January executive order hinting at a "National Digital Asset Reserve" had briefly triggered a 12% BITCOIN spike, but details remained elusive, and the hype soon faded. His tariff threats could disrupt global trade and bolster the safe-haven appeal of cryptocurrencies, also causing prices to fluctuate. The pattern is evident: the market amplifies each of Trump's signals as bullish reasons, but quickly collapses when the execution falls short. The $1,000 swings may lack the drama of the 50% plunge in 2020, but against the backdrop of increased participation, the pain is more acutely felt. Hedge funds, pension plans, and even the El Salvadoran treasury are now experiencing the tremors - magnifying both psychological and financial costs.
Policy-Driven: A New Crypto Calculus
BITCOIN's volatility was once a product of internal factors - miner selloffs, halving cycles, whale manipulations. Now, it is increasingly becoming a plaything of policies. The crypto pivot of the Trump administration, driven by appointments like SEC chair nominee Paul Atkins (a deregulation advocate) and Commerce Secretary candidate Howard Lutnick (from the crypto-savvy Cantor Fitzgerald), is reshaping Washington as the center of the market. Even the moderate form of a strategic reserve signals a paradigm shift: the US government is no longer just a regulator or bystander, but a holder of the asset. However, its restrained approach raises thorny questions about intentions and impacts. Cornell economist Eswar Prasad warns that a powerful reserve could distort BITCOIN's free market spirit, making the US an de facto price setter - a role it is not yet prepared to play. "If the government starts buying, it may crowd out private investment and inflate the bubble," Prasad told Forbes last month.
In contrast, supporters like Lummis argue that maintaining a stable position demonstrates long-term confidence in BITCOIN as a store of value, potentially stabilizing its role in a debt-burdened global economy. The data provides mixed signals: BITCOIN's 21 million supply cap ensures scarcity, but its price elasticity - a 60% surge since Trump's 2024 re-election - underscores its sensitivity to external shocks. A deeper layer of stakes: a crossroads for the market Stepping back, the mild debut of the Trump bill reflects the broader tensions in the evolution of cryptocurrencies. This asset class has outgrown its cypherpunk roots, but its maturation remains incomplete. Institutional adoption - $30 billion in ETF inflows last quarter for BlackRock - has tethered BITCOIN to traditional finance, increasing its correlation with the Nasdaq (now 0.6, per Bloomberg data). Meanwhile, the influencer hype and Trump's crypto cheerleading have fueled retail FOMO, making the market prone to boom-and-bust cycles driven by speculation. The $1,000 swings may not match the drama of past black swan events, but their ripple effects - margin calls, liquidations, sentiment shifts - pack a harder punch in this denser ecosystem.
What's next? The bill's audit may yield surprises - some speculate the US holds more BTC than disclosed, a variable for supply dynamics. Congressional action is also uncertain: Lummis' 1 million BTC dream hinges on bipartisan support, a tall order in a divided Congress. Regulatory clarity - stablecoin rules, SEC-CFTC jurisdiction - may prove more impactful on price trends than the reserve. For now, BITCOIN lingers in the purgatory of $80,000 to $90,000, caught between policy promises and their lackluster realities.
Conclusion: From the Dark Forest to a Sunny Feast
Prior to the BITCOIN bill, the crypto world was like a dark forest, rife with lawless rules, shrouded in fog, with hacks and regulatory crackdowns eroding trust. While Trump's strategic reserve has not brought the immediate market boom expected, it has lit a beacon - national-level crypto endorsement has arrived. This bill may be just the beginning, with the US poised to pursue more proactive BITCOIN policies to activate the economic engine. Meanwhile, a national-level BITCOIN reserve race has quietly begun, with more individuals, organizations, and even countries joining the feast, a scene unimaginable three years ago. BITCOIN has finally emerged from the shadows into the sunlight, though its steps are still unsteady.
As traders groped through the rubble of shattered hopes this week, one truth stood out starkly: in the market's mirage, every reflection is distorted - every promise carries a trap. Yet, the curtain has risen on this spectacle, and the chapters to come are worth anticipating.
