Introduction: The New Order of the Cryptocurrency Market in the Trump Era

In 2025, the global financial market will see new changes. Trump returns to the White House, continuing his consistent economic nationalist policies, such as imposing tariffs, reshaping supply chains, and strengthening the US dollar hegemony. At the same time, with the continuous expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the intensified "de-dollarization" trend globally, and the rise of the cryptocurrency asset market worldwide, the Trump administration's attitude towards cryptocurrencies is undergoing a significant change.

Against this backdrop, the concept of cryptocurrency strategic reserves is gradually emerging and becoming a focus of market attention. This report will delve into the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policy on the global financial market, as well as how its potential cryptocurrency strategic reserve plan may affect the market performance of mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. Furthermore, we will analyze the possible changes in regulatory policies, the adjustment of asset allocation strategies by institutional investors, and the future development direction of the overall cryptocurrency market.

I. The Macroeconomic Background of Trump's Economic Policies and the Cryptocurrency Market

1.1 Tariff Policy: Reshaping the Global Economic Order and Impacting the Capital Market

Trump's economic policy has always been centered on "America First," a strategy that not only has affected the economic landscape within the US, but also has profoundly changed the operation mode of the global capital market and financial system. The Trump administration implemented a series of major economic policies during 2017-2021, including large-scale tax cuts, a tough trade war, pressure on the Federal Reserve, and control over US dollar liquidity.

These policies have driven the growth of the US economy in the short term, but have also led to a long-term increase in fiscal deficits and instability in the international economy. In 2025, after Trump's re-election, the market generally expects his administration to continue or even strengthen its past economic policies, especially in areas such as tariff policy, US dollar strategy, fiscal stimulus, regulatory environment, and global capital flows, all of which will have a profound impact on the cryptocurrency market.

Against the backdrop of the increasing decentralization of the global economic system, the cryptocurrency market has gradually become an important part of the international financial system. Mainstream cryptocurrency assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum are not only seen as investment targets, but are also viewed by some countries and institutions as assets to hedge against US dollar risks. The application of stablecoins (such as USDT and USDC) in international trade settlement is also increasing, driving the digitization of the US dollar.

The economic policies of the Trump administration will have a far-reaching impact on these trends. Its tariff policy may accelerate the global allocation of capital to cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, the management of US dollar liquidity will affect the capital supply in the cryptocurrency market, US regulatory policies will determine the legality and development space of the cryptocurrency market, and the cryptocurrency strategic reserve plan that Trump may promote is likely to trigger a global market revolution.

One of the core economic policies of the Trump administration is its highly aggressive trade policy. During 2018-2019, the outbreak of the US-China trade war led to a restructuring of the global supply chain and major changes in capital flows. Facing the new economic situation in 2025, Trump is likely to restart the trade war, imposing tariffs on economic entities such as China, the European Union, and Japan, trying to re-establish the competitiveness of US manufacturing through external pressure. The direct consequence of this policy will be an increase in the uncertainty of the international capital market, and global investors will seek safe-haven assets, with decentralized assets like Bitcoin potentially becoming new safe-haven tools.

In fact, during the most intense period of the trade war in 2019, the price of Bitcoin soared from $3,000 to $13,000, and the market generally believed that capital was flowing into the cryptocurrency market while avoiding traditional market risks. The escalation of the trade war in 2025 may once again drive similar capital flow trends, especially in the context of the impairment of the US dollar credit system, the appeal of Bitcoin may be even stronger.

In addition to the impact of the trade war on the global capital market, the Trump administration's fiscal policy is also an important factor affecting the cryptocurrency market. Trump implemented large-scale tax cuts in 2017, reducing corporate tax rates and increasing the government's fiscal deficit. In 2025, Trump may adopt similar measures to stimulate US economic growth, including further corporate tax cuts, large-scale infrastructure investment, and increased military spending.

These policies may boost the US economy in the short term, but they will also exacerbate fiscal deficits and put pressure on the US dollar credit system. The increase in fiscal deficits usually means that the government needs to fill the funding gap through debt issuance or monetary easing policies, and if the market expects the Federal Reserve to resume quantitative easing (QE) in the future, the increase in market liquidity will often be positive for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

In fact, the ultra-loose monetary policy implemented by the Federal Reserve during 2020-2021 was one of the important driving forces behind the Bitcoin bull market. Therefore, if the Trump administration pushes for a new round of fiscal stimulus, and the Federal Reserve is forced to some extent to accompany it with a relaxation of monetary policy, the market may welcome a new round of cryptocurrency asset appreciation cycle.

1.2 US Dollar Liquidity and the Cyclical Relationship with the Cryptocurrency Market

As the global reserve currency, the status of the US dollar may change under the policies of the Trump administration. Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with the strong US dollar many times during his first term, believing that the overvaluation of the US dollar harms the competitiveness of US manufacturing. In 2025, the Trump administration may take measures to promote the depreciation of the US dollar in order to boost exports and reduce trade deficits. If the trend of US dollar depreciation is established, global investors may seek other assets to hedge against the risk of US dollar depreciation, and Bitcoin, gold, and other safe-haven assets may become new capital inflow destinations.

Particularly globally, some countries have already begun to explore the de-dollarization process, for example, Russia and China have reduced their dependence on the US dollar in international trade, and Middle Eastern countries are also trying to use the renminbi or other currencies for oil settlements. If the policies of the Trump administration accelerate the de-dollarization process, the global demand for decentralized assets such as Bitcoin may further increase, driving the cryptocurrency market into a new stage of development.

The cryptocurrency regulatory policy in the US may undergo major changes during the Trump era. Trump had a relatively ambiguous attitude towards cryptocurrency assets during his first term, and former Treasury Secretary Mnuchin had repeatedly expressed a desire to strengthen the regulation of the cryptocurrency market to prevent assets like Bitcoin from being used for illegal transactions. However, in the 2024 election process, Trump and his allies began to show a more positive attitude towards cryptocurrency assets, believing that Bitcoin and blockchain technology can bring new financial innovations and economic growth opportunities to the US.

In 2025, the Trump administration may adjust the US cryptocurrency regulatory framework, such as reducing the tax burden on cryptocurrency assets, relaxing the legal restrictions on cryptocurrency transactions and investments, and supporting the further development of financial products like Bitcoin ETFs. If these policies are implemented, it will bring huge growth opportunities for the US cryptocurrency market, and will also have a demonstrative effect on the global market, prompting other countries to adjust their attitudes towards the cryptocurrency market.

It is worth noting that the Trump administration may promote the establishment of a "Cryptocurrency Strategic Reserve Program," incorporating cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin into the national-level reserve system. The proposal of this policy may be based on multiple factors, including combating US dollar credit risk, seizing the dominant position in the global cryptocurrency market, and ensuring the US's leading advantage in the digital asset field in international competition.

If the US government decides to hold Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, Bitcoin will face unprecedented market recognition and may become an important component of the global financial system. The impact of this policy will far exceed the entry of any ETF or institutional investment, as it means the formal recognition of Bitcoin at the sovereign state level, and may trigger the follow-up of other countries around the world.

1.3 Institutional Investors' Reallocation of the Crypto Market

In recent years, the acceptance of crypto assets by institutional investors has gradually increased. With the approval of Bitcoin ETFs and the entry of large financial institutions, crypto assets have gradually become a part of traditional investment portfolios. If the Trump administration pushes forward a crypto asset strategic reserve and relaxes the restrictions on institutional investors holding crypto assets, the market structure will undergo a major change. In the long run, this may lead to mainstream assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum entering more national and institutional investment portfolios, driving the further maturation of the market.

Overall, the Trump administration's economic policies will have a profound impact on the crypto market. The trade war may accelerate the flow of capital to crypto assets, the fiscal deficit and the depreciation of the US dollar may increase the demand for Bitcoin, and the adjustment of the regulatory environment may further promote the development of the US crypto market. If the Trump administration ultimately pushes for a crypto asset strategic reserve program, Bitcoin may receive historic institutional recognition, fundamentally changing the global financial system. In this process, the market needs to closely monitor the specific policy direction of the Trump administration and the reaction of the global capital market to these policies in order to grasp the future development opportunities of the crypto market.

II. Crypto Asset Strategic Reserve: Policy Background and Potential Impact

2.1 Policy Background of the US Government's Promotion of Crypto Asset Strategic Reserve

After returning to power in 2025, the core of the Trump administration's economic policy will still be "America First", which not only means re-examining the global reserve currency status of the US dollar, but may also mean that the government is beginning to consider diversifying its national reserves to hedge against US dollar credit risk.

For a long time, the US dollar's status as the world's main reserve currency has given the US unparalleled influence in the global financial system. However, in recent years, with the rise in the US debt level, the expansion of the fiscal deficit, the adjustment of interest rate policies, and the questioning of the US dollar's dominant position by various countries, the reserve status of the US dollar is being challenged.

On the one hand, the US government's fiscal deficit problem has become a focus of global market attention. Since 2020, the US government debt level has continued to soar, reaching over $34 trillion by the end of 2024, and is still growing rapidly. This has weakened market confidence in the long-term value of the US dollar, prompting countries to explore reserve assets other than the US dollar.

After taking office, the Trump administration may further exacerbate the fiscal deficit problem in order to push for more fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investment. If the market expects an increased risk of US dollar depreciation, global central banks may accelerate the adjustment of their reserve asset allocation, and decentralized assets like Bitcoin may become an alternative choice to the US dollar.

On the other hand, the acceleration of the de-dollarization process has also made the US government need to rethink how to maintain its financial hegemony. In recent years, many countries around the world have been reducing their dependence on the US dollar in international trade settlements, such as Russia and China gradually shifting to local currency settlements, and countries like the UAE and India exploring the use of the renminbi or other currencies for oil trade settlements.

This trend has weakened the global influence of the US dollar, forcing the US government to take new measures to ensure its dominant position in the global financial system. If the Trump administration views the crypto asset strategic reserve as a new global financial strategic tool, Bitcoin may be formally incorporated into the US official reserve system as a potential weapon to hedge against the de-dollarization of the global financial system.

In addition, the Trump administration's attitude towards the cryptocurrency market is also gradually changing. Although Trump publicly criticized Bitcoin in 2019, calling it "based on thin air, with no real value", his stance has clearly changed during the 2024 election campaign. On the one hand, Trump's team has gradually recognized the potential of crypto assets in the future financial system and tried to seek the support of the crypto industry; on the other hand, US institutional investors have significantly increased their Bitcoin holdings in the past few years, with institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity launching Bitcoin spot ETFs and attracting billions of dollars in inflows.

Against this backdrop, the US government may realize that Bitcoin is no longer a marginalized asset class, but is becoming an important part of the global financial system. If the US government wants to occupy a dominant position in this market, establishing a "crypto asset strategic reserve" will be a strategic choice in line with its national interests.

2.2 Potential Impact of the Crypto Asset Strategic Reserve

First, this policy may greatly change the market's perception of the value of Bitcoin and push Bitcoin prices into a completely new valuation system. The current market's main pricing logic for Bitcoin is still based on its scarcity (21 million total supply), inflation-hedging properties, and its role in the digital economy. However, if the US government officially incorporates Bitcoin into its national reserves, it means that Bitcoin will transform from an "alternative asset" to a "national-level reserve asset", and its market perception will undergo a fundamental change. Over the past decades, gold has been an important component of global central bank reserves, and if Bitcoin is incorporated into the same system, its market valuation may experience exponential growth.

The current global gold market size is about $13 trillion, while the total market capitalization of Bitcoin is only about $1 trillion. If Bitcoin is endowed with a reserve function similar to gold, its market value may reach at least 30-50% of the gold market, i.e. over $4-6 trillion, corresponding to a Bitcoin price of over $200,000. This means that the policy decision of the US government will directly affect the long-term value of Bitcoin and may trigger a new round of bull market.

Secondly, the implementation of this policy will have a subtle impact on the global reserve currency status of the US dollar. Traditionally, the US dollar has been able to become the main global reserve currency mainly due to the strength of the US economy, the global coverage of US dollar liquidity, and the stability of US dollar-denominated assets (such as US Treasuries).

However, if the US government begins to incorporate Bitcoin into its reserves, this may send a signal to the market that the US government itself is also considering the credit risk of the US dollar and trying to hedge it through Bitcoin. This may exacerbate market concerns about the long-term stability of the US dollar and prompt other countries to also adjust their reserve structures, leading to more central banks holding Bitcoin. Once this trend forms, it may weaken the global dominance of the US dollar and accelerate the multi-polarization of the global financial system.

At the same time, the US government's holding of Bitcoin may also have an impact on the global geopolitical landscape. Currently, some countries have already tried to incorporate Bitcoin into their national financial strategies, such as El Salvador becoming the world's first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021 and gradually increasing its national Bitcoin reserves.

In addition, countries like Russia and Iran are also exploring the use of Bitcoin for international trade settlements to avoid Western financial sanctions. If the US government takes the lead in action and incorporates Bitcoin into its national reserve system, other countries may have to make corresponding adjustments to avoid being in a passive position in the future global financial system competition. This may lead to a "national-level Bitcoin reserve race" globally, affecting the global financial landscape.

Finally, this policy may also trigger a chain reaction in the regulatory environment of the crypto market in the United States. Currently, crypto market regulation in the US remains relatively uncertain, with the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) and CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) having differences over the regulatory jurisdiction of crypto assets. However, if the US government decides to include Bitcoin in the national reserve, it means that the legal status of Bitcoin may be officially established, and it will drive the further clarification of the relevant regulatory framework. This may provide a clearer compliance path for the US crypto market, attract more institutional capital into the market, and further accelerate the mainstream adoption of Bitcoin.

In summary, the US government's implementation of the "Crypto Asset Strategic Reserve" is not only a major shock to the global financial system, but may also fundamentally change the market positioning of Bitcoin and affect the direction of global capital flows. The implementation of this policy may cause huge market volatility in the short term, but in the long run, it may become a milestone event in the development history of Bitcoin, driving the global financial system into a new era.

III. Future Market Outlook and Investment Strategies

3.1 Long-term Trends and Future Outlook of the Crypto Market

The development path of the crypto market can be analyzed from multiple perspectives, including macroeconomic trends, policy environment, market structure changes, and technological progress. The policies of the Trump administration may become a catalyst for a new round of bull market, but its long-term impact will depend on multiple variables, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the evolution of the de-dollarization process, the degree of institutional investor participation, and the policy orientation of emerging markets.

First, changes in the global financial environment will be a key factor affecting the long-term trend of the crypto market. The current global economy is facing a series of challenges, including de-globalization, inflationary pressures, interest rate uncertainty, and geopolitical conflicts, all of which may prompt more investors to view Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset.

Historical experience shows that in periods of rising global uncertainty, traditional safe-haven assets such as gold tend to be favored by the market, and Bitcoin is gradually developing similar safe-haven functions. If the US government officially recognizes Bitcoin as a reserve asset, Bitcoin will further gain market trust and may replace some of the market share of gold.

Secondly, the degree of institutional investor participation will be an important variable in determining the future market size of Bitcoin. In recent years, with the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs, traditional financial institutions have begun to enter the crypto market on a large scale. For example, the Bitcoin ETF products of giants like BlackRock and Fidelity have attracted billions of dollars in inflows, and if the US government establishes a "Crypto Asset Strategic Reserve", more sovereign funds, pension funds, and central banks may accelerate their Bitcoin allocation, further promoting the maturity of the Bitcoin market and its transformation from a high-volatility asset to a stable value storage tool.

In addition, the acceleration of the global de-dollarization process will also have a profound impact on the crypto market. Currently, economies including China, Russia, Iran, and India are actively exploring de-dollarization paths to reduce their dependence on the US dollar.

If Bitcoin becomes part of the US government's reserve assets, other countries around the world may have to re-evaluate their attitudes towards Bitcoin. Some countries may follow suit and increase the proportion of Bitcoin in their foreign exchange reserves, while others may choose to restrict Bitcoin transactions to maintain the stability of their domestic currencies. This policy game will directly affect the global liquidity of Bitcoin and may create arbitrage opportunities in certain markets.

3.2 Investment Strategies and Market Opportunity Analysis

Against the backdrop of profound changes in market structure, investors need to adjust their strategies to adapt to the new market environment. Whether individual investors or institutional investors, they need to consider how to optimize asset allocation in the new financial landscape and find the most promising investment opportunities.

First, the investment logic of Bitcoin will change. In the past, Bitcoin was mainly seen as a high-risk, high-return speculative asset, but in the future, it may be more widely regarded as a "digital gold" or "central bank reserve asset". This means that the price volatility of Bitcoin may gradually decrease, and long-term Bitcoin holders will enjoy stable value growth. For investors, adopting a "long-term holding" (HODL) strategy may be the best way to respond to market changes, especially in the case of government policy support, the long-term value of Bitcoin will be better guaranteed.

Secondly, structural arbitrage opportunities in the market may increase. As governments around the world adopt different policies towards Bitcoin, there may be differences in regulatory environments across markets, leading to price disparities. For example, if some countries strictly restrict Bitcoin transactions, while the US government actively promotes a Bitcoin reserve plan, the global Bitcoin price may show significant deviations, and savvy investors can take advantage of these differences to conduct cross-market arbitrage trades.

Furthermore, the role of the derivatives market will be further strengthened. Currently, the Bitcoin futures and options markets are relatively mature, and with the entry of institutional investors, the demand for risk management of Bitcoin will further increase. In the future, we may see more complex financial instruments being introduced into the crypto market, such as Bitcoin-based bonds and structured products. For professional investors, using these tools for risk hedging and yield optimization will be an important trend in the future market.

On the other hand, in addition to Bitcoin, the market opportunities of other crypto assets are also worth noting. Although Bitcoin may become the main national reserve asset, the ecosystems of platforms like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) are still developing rapidly. If government and institutional capital begins to enter the crypto market on a large scale, these assets may also benefit. Particularly in the fields of decentralized finance (DeFi) and tokenized assets (RWA), there may be new market opportunities in the future. For example, some countries may explore blockchain-based government bond issuance or use smart contract technology to optimize financial transaction processes, and these trends may create new investment opportunities for investors.

3.3 Risk Factors and Coping Strategies

Although the policies of the Trump administration may bring long-term benefits to the crypto market, investors still need to be aware of potential risk factors and develop corresponding coping strategies.

First, policy uncertainty remains one of the biggest risks in the market. Although the Trump administration may support the strategic reserve of crypto assets, the implementation of this policy still depends on various factors, including the approval of Congress, the attitude of the Federal Reserve, the cooperation of the Treasury Department, and the reactions of other countries around the world. If the policy advancement is hindered, the market may experience significant volatility. Therefore, investors need to closely monitor policy dynamics and adjust their investment strategies accordingly.

Secondly, market liquidity risk is also an important consideration. Although the Bitcoin market has become much more mature than in the past, its liquidity is still relatively low compared to traditional financial markets. If the government or large institutions suddenly adjust their Bitcoin holdings, the market may experience violent fluctuations. Therefore, investors should avoid over-leveraged trading and adopt a strategy of phased buying or selling in times of high market volatility to reduce the risk of market impact.

In addition, geopolitical factors may also have an impact on the crypto market. As global competition between countries intensifies, some countries may take measures to curb the use of Bitcoin. For example, China has strengthened the regulation of cryptocurrencies several times in recent years, and if the US government promotes a Bitcoin strategic reserve plan, other countries may take corresponding countermeasures. Investors need to consider this possibility and ensure the diversification of their investment portfolios to mitigate the risks of specific policy changes.

Finally, technical risk remains a major challenge in the crypto market. Although the Bitcoin network itself is highly secure, the entire crypto industry still faces risks such as smart contract vulnerabilities, exchange security issues, and hacker attacks. Investors need to choose trading platforms with higher security and take appropriate security measures, such as using cold wallets to store assets and diversifying investments across different asset classes, to reduce potential technical risks.

IV. Conclusion

Against the backdrop of major changes in the global financial system, whether the US government will officially include crypto assets such as Bitcoin in the national strategic reserve has become a focus of market attention. With the shift in the Trump administration's attitude towards crypto assets and the acceleration of the de-dollarization process globally, the possibility of establishing a "crypto asset strategic reserve" is gradually increasing.

If this policy is implemented, it will be one of the most disruptive changes in the global financial system in a century, and it may have far-reaching impacts on the reserve status of the US dollar, financial geopolitics between countries, market liquidity, the competition pattern of sovereign currencies, and the perceived value of Bitcoin. Therefore, we need to deeply explore the potential motives, policy background, global macro environment, and potential widespread impact on the market of the Trump administration's promotion of this policy.

Against the backdrop of the Trump administration's promotion of the "crypto asset strategic reserve" concept, the global financial market is undergoing a profound structural transformation. Bitcoin and other crypto assets are transitioning from speculative investment products to potential national-level reserve assets, and are gradually establishing their core position in the global financial system.

This trend will not only affect the crypto market itself, but also have far-reaching impacts on the global reserve currency status of the US dollar, traditional financial markets, sovereign currency systems, and the investment strategies of institutions and individuals. The crypto market is currently in a critical stage where policy dividends and market challenges coexist. If the US government officially includes crypto assets in the strategic reserve, core assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum will usher in unprecedented development opportunities.

We suggest that investors need to closely monitor policy changes and seek the best investment opportunities in market fluctuations. The "crypto asset strategic reserve" proposed by the Trump administration may become a key node in the transformation of the global financial system, and drive the Bitcoin market into a new stage of development. For investors, this policy may bring unprecedented market opportunities, but also greater uncertainty.

In the future market environment, the keys to successful investment will be long-term holding of Bitcoin, paying attention to policy dynamics, utilizing market arbitrage opportunities, optimizing portfolio structure, and managing market risks. As the global financial system evolves, crypto assets will become an increasingly important asset class, and investors who can accurately grasp the trends will gain the greatest benefits in this transformation.

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