After experiencing a few days of turbulent fluctuations, risk assets saw a reversal overnight.
BlockBeats data shows that in the past 24 hours, BTC has rebounded from the day's low of $81,500 to over $88,000, with a daily increase of nearly 10%. At the same time, the three major stock indexes narrowed their declines, with the Nasdaq closing down 0.35%.
The "Tug-of-War" between Market Sentiment and Macroeconomic Conditions
The recent market has been stagnant, with BTC rebounding from the February 21 low of $78,000 to $95,000, and then falling back to around $81,000, with the bulls and bears in a tug-of-war, and the market direction unclear. Although Trump's "pro-crypto" stance temporarily boosted market confidence, its impact was ultimately short-lived and failed to reverse the overall market's weakness. The potential macroeconomic risks remain the "Sword of Damocles" hanging over the market.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, believes that the BTC market may continue to linger in a depressed state until there is a substantial improvement in the US market sentiment. Given the uncertainty of regulatory policies, the complex and volatile macroeconomic environment, and the continued fluctuations in investor sentiment, it remains unknown whether BTC can maintain its high-level operation in the long run. Before stronger market catalysts emerge, BTC may continue to fluctuate within a wide range, and investors need to closely monitor market trends and capture key signals.
After Losing the $90,000 Mark, the Bulls Face Severe Challenges
Although the market has attempted to rebound several times, BTC and the entire cryptocurrency market are still under pressure and have not been able to effectively establish a sustained upward trend. Many analysts have issued warnings that if the bulls want to reverse the downward trend, they must take action quickly, regain key positions, or BTC may face further downside risks.
However, Ki Young Ju believes that it may be too early to declare the end of the bull market cycle. CryptoQuant's on-chain data shows that market on-chain activity is still relatively calm, and key indicators are neutral, indicating that although the market has been weak recently, the overall bull market pattern may not have been disrupted. In addition, the fundamentals of BTC remain solid, with more mining machines being put into operation, reflecting the confidence of the market's major participants in BTC's long-term prospects.
Ju further pointed out that if this bull market cycle were to end now, this would probably not be the result desired by the market's major stakeholders, including early "whale" investors, large mining companies, traditional financial institutions, and US President Trump, who has publicly expressed support for cryptocurrencies. Retail investors are usually considered to be the late entrants in the bull market cycle, and their market behavior may not be sufficient to dominate the market direction at the current stage.
$85,000 Becomes a Key Liquidity Test, Will the Historical Cycle Repeat?
TradingView analyst believes that the key short-term support for BTC is still $85,000, which has played a crucial role in the market tug-of-war in recent weeks.
If BTC continues to trade below $85,000 in the coming days, it may trigger a larger-scale market sell-off, with the concentrated release of selling pressure potentially leading to an accelerated price decline and further confirming the bearish trend, at which point BTC may face the risk of testing even lower support levels.
Quinten posted on the X platform: Looking back at history may provide some insights. In the previous bull market cycle, BTC experienced seven significant corrections, with magnitudes of -17%, -17%, -32%, -26%, -28%, -51%, and -25% respectively. Each correction triggered market panic, making people feel that the "bear market" had arrived, and whenever the price plummeted, the market was filled with the rhetoric of "Bitcoin is dead". However, history has proven that BTC ultimately broke through the resistance and continued to rise. Admittedly, history does not simply repeat itself, but it is often remarkably similar.
In summary, the $85,000 and $90,000 price levels will become the focus of the short-term market tug-of-war between the bulls and bears, and investors need to closely monitor the gains and losses of these two key positions to judge the next market direction.
According to analyst MasterAnanda, the current market trend is quite "interesting" and is releasing some key signals worth noting:
The bottom may have been explored: Last week, BTC plummeted 28% from its all-time high of $109,000 to a low of $78,300, and then rebounded strongly. This "bottom-up" V-shaped reversal is often seen as a signal of the formation of a temporary market bottom, indicating that the possibility of a further significant decline in the short term is reduced.
A healthy correction in the bull market: After a strong bull market rally, a certain degree of correction in the market is a normal phenomenon. This correction helps to release the accumulated profit-taking positions in the market and accumulate new upward momentum, and a healthy adjustment can lay the foundation for a longer-term bull market.
The "golden pit" of buying on dips: The current market correction has actually provided a rare opportunity for off-market capital to enter the market. If you missed the previous BTC rally from $85,000 to $95,000, now may be a good time to deploy at relatively low levels. The market always has opportunities, and corrections are an important "accumulation phase" in the bull market cycle.
The long-term bull market trend remains unchanged: The long-term upward growth trend of BTC has not undergone a fundamental change. From a historical perspective, BTC is expected to regain its upward momentum in the coming months and gradually oscillate upwards. According to previous analyst forecasts, BTC still has the potential to hit the $120,000 target price next month.
Technical indicators provide support: Observing the BTC daily chart, the 200-day moving average (MA200) is playing a key support role, and MA200 has long been seen as one of the most important technical indicators for judging the long-term trend of cryptocurrencies. The current BTC price trend is forming higher lows, indicating that the bullish trend may be further confirmed.
Market sentiment and capital accumulation: This cycle is not simply driven by US government policies or geopolitical events, but also reflects the cyclical laws of the market itself. BTC has prepared to enter a new growth phase and is expected to hit new highs again in 2025. In addition, there is still a large amount of capital waiting in the market, and once the market stabilizes and rebounds, these capital may accelerate their entry, further boosting the market upward.
In summary, BTC may have explored a temporary bottom, and the market is entering a phase of oscillation and accumulation. Although short-term market volatility is inevitable, the long-term bull market trend remains solid. Investors can seize the current correction opportunity, deploy in batches at relatively low levels, and patiently hold and wait for the market to ultimately choose its direction.
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