Over the past week, the prices of crypto assets have been significantly affected by the information landscape. On February 28, BTC hit a low of $ 78,258, and the market sentiment fell into extreme fear. With the Trump administration proposing to "include 5 tokens in the new strategic reserve", the BTC price rebounded quickly, breaking through the long-term resistance level and reaching a high of $ 95,000, temporarily stabilizing around the $ 92,000 to $ 93,000 resistance level.
Immediately following was the announcement of Trump's tariff policy in the US Eastern Time on March 3, and the prices of crypto assets led by BTC plummeted, staging a roller coaster ride. Currently, the price of BTC is fluctuating around $ 83,000, with a maximum price fluctuation of over 10% within 24 hours. The maximum price fluctuation of ETH within 24 hours exceeded 15%, with a low of $ 2,002 (the above data is from Binance spot, real-time data as of 4:00 pm on March 4).
Although the current market narrative is relatively favorable for crypto assets, macroeconomic data and market sentiment are having a significant impact on the price trend of crypto assets. In the face of obvious risk aversion sentiment, it is recommended that investors closely monitor basic information such as US Treasuries and wait for macroeconomic signals.
Market Analysis
The Trump team grasps the crypto market, and the crypto market fluctuates violently
On March 2, Trump posted on social media that the US will create a crypto currency strategic reserve, which will include BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, and ADA. Affected by the news, the crypto currency market rebounded sharply, with ADA surging by more than 60%. Although BTC's market dominance has declined, its increase is still over 10%.
From Trump's election to his successful inauguration, the crypto market has always been an important bargaining chip for Trump. Summarizing past events, the Trump team's operations in influencing the crypto market through news have become increasingly proficient, whether in terms of timing or technical control. The first crypto currency summit to be held at the White House on March 7 is also highly anticipated, and how will Trump move to "ensure that the US becomes the world's crypto currency capital"?
BTC ETF net outflows hit a record high in February, and market performance in March is expected to be poor
Recently, BTC ETFs have seen net outflows for 8 consecutive days, with a net outflow of about $ 2.4 billion in the past week. Coinglass data shows that February was the worst month for BTC ETF outflows. With the risk aversion sentiment in the market and the exit of arbitrage funds, the performance of BTC ETFs in March may not be optimistic. Data shows that on the 3rd, the total net outflow of BTC spot ETFs was $ 74.19 million.
The ETH market is also under severe pressure. In February, the ETH lending market experienced the most severe liquidation event in 12 months, with nearly $ 500 million in collateral being liquidated, mostly on the Aave and Compound platforms. The surge in liquidations coincided with the overall market decline, leading to a significant drop in the total crypto market capitalization and triggering a large number of forced liquidations. This is the second highest monthly liquidation amount in DeFi history, second only to the market crash in May 2021.
US crypto regulation is entering spring, with many institutions recently settling with the SEC
The SEC has recently withdrawn its investigations into companies such as Robinhood, Gemini, UniSwap Labs, MetaMask, and OpenSea, and has reached settlements with Coinbase and Kraken. Compared to the Biden administration, the SEC has undergone a major shift in crypto currency regulation.
The SEC's statement released on Monday said the Crypto Assets Working Group will hold its first roundtable on March 21 at its headquarters in Washington, D.C. The theme will be "How We Got Here and Where We Go Next - Defining the Status of Securities". This will be part of a "Spring Sprint Towards Crypto Clarity" series of meetings.
Macro & Data Sharing
Trump's tariff policy is finalized, causing a huge shock to US stocks
On March 3, US President Trump said that reciprocal tariffs will be imposed starting April 2, and the policy of imposing a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada will take effect on March 4. Trump said there is no room for consensus on tariffs on Mexico and Canada. In addition, Trump also said he would consider a free trade agreement with Argentina.
Under the pressure of Trump's tariff policy, the three major US stock indexes fell sharply at the end of the trading day, with the S&P 500 index recording its biggest intraday drop of the year and the Nasdaq erasing its post-election gains. Market panic sentiment has surged, with technology and chip stocks under pressure, Nvidia plunging nearly 9%, Broadcom falling more than 6%, and Amazon falling more than 3%. The "safe-haven asset" gold has also risen back above $ 2,900. The market is closely watching the ECB meeting and the non-farm payroll report.
Weak US economic growth data is evident, and the market is urgently seeking solutions
Consumer credit and housing market data have continued to decline sharply, with new home sales hitting a historic low, and new housing starts also starting to decline after the post-pandemic boom, exacerbating market panic over weak economic growth.
Currently, most of the US economic surprise indexes have turned negative. Affected by the weakness in exports (from -$ 290 billion to -$ 2,500 billion) and consumer spending (from +2.2% to +1.3%). The Atlanta Fed's first-quarter GDP growth forecast saw a record decline last week, dropping directly from +2.2% to -1.3%.
Bond market performance is mixed, with Japanese bond yields hitting new highs
On March 4, Golden Ten data showed that the yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds rose to 2.37%, the highest level since October 2008. Bloomberg data shows that US dollar bond market yields have declined significantly in the past week.
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