The original text is from Bankless
Compiled | Odaily Planet Daily Golem（@web3_golem）
The trend of the crypto market still depends on where Trump's "butt leans". Last night, Trump posted on social media a message to advance a cryptocurrency strategic reserve including XRP, SOL and ADA, and today the long-depressed Altcoin market saw a V-shaped reversal. According to Quantify Crypto data, in the past 24 hours, only 10 of the top 200 cryptocurrencies by market cap showed a downward trend, while the remaining 190 tokens saw varying degrees of increase.
Could Trump single-handedly bring about an Altcoin bull market? Some players jokingly said that cryptocurrencies have become a "political economy" centered around the Trump family, and it's easier to blindly follow and buy American coins than to painstakingly research and buy value coins. However, from a time perspective, the crypto currency strategic reserve is still unlikely to be implemented in the short term, and after the FOMO caused by the short-term positive news ends, the ultimate value of the Altcoins will also return to the fundamentals, and this Altcoin rally may also be the last "zombie" before the "great retreat" of the bull market.
So, from a fundamental perspective, which Altcoins are worth watching in the future? The Bankless analyst team has been predicting the price trends of Altcoins based on fundamentals, and Odaily Planet Daily will summarize the Bankless analyst team's recent specific trend predictions and reasons for 8 Altcoins in this article, and provide a summary of the success rate of their token predictions maturing in February 2025 for readers to refer to.
February Maturity Prediction Success Rate: 50%
Excluding the neutral tokens, there are a total of 12 tokens whose price trends predicted by the Bankless analysis team will mature in February, with the following results:
Predicted bullish but fell: Aave (AAVE) fell 12.72%; anoncast (ANON) fell 95.54%; Near (NEAR) fell 32.31%; Solana (SOL) fell 9.15%; Helium Network (HNT) fell 34.62%;
Predicted bearish but rose: anoncast (ANON) rose 41.54%;
Predicted rise and fall consistent with actual: Instadapp (INST) rose 8.04%; Ethereum Name Service (ENS) fell 21.68%; Drift (DRIFT) fell 53.45%; Jito (JTO) rose 35.81%; Toncoin (TON) fell 6.48%; XRP fell 2.53%.
Among them, the most severe reversal was anoncast (ANON) and anoncast (ANON), and the most accurate prediction was Drift (DRIFT), which fell 53.45% at the time of maturity. However, the overall success rate of the tokens maturing in February is still 50%.
Bullish Token Review
Sui (SUI)
Track: L1
Reason: Fundamentals are improving, application revenue and stablecoin market value continue to increase
Forecast period: February 25, 2025 to May 25, 2025
Forecast price: $2.8
Price performance since forecast: Up 5.71%
In the past three months, new chains such as Berachain, Unichain and Ink have been launched, intensifying the competition between L1 and L2. Nevertheless, Sui continues to attract users and capital, with net inflows of over $570 million over the past 3 months.
From October 2024 to January, Sui's monthly application revenue grew from $2.24 million to $5.44 million, and this growth may attract more ecosystem builders looking to capitalize on this momentum. Since November 2024, Sui's stablecoin total market value has grown 58%, indicating that more users are being attracted to the chain, and since November 2024, Sui's LST market value has grown 246%. This not only enhances network security, but also indicates long-term user confidence.
Berachain (BERA)
Track: L1
Reason: Airdrop selling pressure has subsided, token incentive model is novel
Forecast period: February 11, 2025 to May 11, 2025
Forecast price: $5.51
Price performance since forecast: Up 42.11%
BERA of Berachain has plummeted more than 60% since the airdrop on February 6, and the valuation has fallen to a reasonable level. The advantage of Berachain is the novel PoL incentive measure that stipulates the issuance of BGT, which can be converted 1:1 to BERA, increasing the yield to attract money-oriented DeFi participants. At the same time, the user group that wants to participate in the Berachain governance must accumulate the voting rights of BGT, which may also alleviate the selling pressure.
Compared to other mainstream L1s, Berachain's valuation is relatively low, which provides sufficient upside space for BERA, and the initial airdrop selling pressure may have subsided.
Therefore, the Bankless analyst team is bullish on the subsequent performance of BERA, cautiously optimistic that its novel incentive structure may trigger a positive feedback loop, where the initial inflow improves the network fundamentals, thereby increasing the value of the BGT incentives, thereby attracting more deposits. But to make bera sustainable, Berachain must subsequently give people a reason to use the network beyond Ponzi economics.
Pendle Finance (PENDLE)
Track: DeFi
Reason: TVL growth, large capital inflows into the protocol expected in 2025
Forecast period: February 10, 2025 to May 10, 2025
Forecast price: $3.47
Price performance since forecast: Down 17.87%
On November 8, 2024, the Bankless analyst team was bullish on the subsequent performance of PENDLE, as its native yield swaps are innovative financial instruments, and if the crypto market takes off, Pendle could see rapid growth.
In the past 3 months, a large amount of capital has flowed into Pendle, with TVL increasing from $2.964 billion to $5.11 billion, an increase of over 70%, and PENDLE can be staked to earn platform fees. Pendle recently released an update to its 2025 roadmap, stating that it will expand to non-EVM ecosystems such as Solana and Hyperliquid, create financial instruments suitable for TradFi use, and provide services compliant with Islamic law principles to enter the $3.9 trillion Islamic finance market.
Uniswap (UNI)
Track: DeFi
Reason: Uniswap V4 will change the fundamentals of Uniswap
Forecast period: February 1, 2025 to May 1, 2025
Forecast token price: $12.32
Forecast performance to date: Down 35.55%
On January 31, Uniswap Labs announced the deployment of Uniswap V4, which will turn the Uniswap protocol into an open development platform through hooks, a new smart contract primitive that allows anyone to customize the way pools, swaps, fees, and LP positions interact.
Although UNI has been the best performing crypto asset since Trump's election in November 2024, it ultimately plummeted nearly 50% as traders rushed to capitalize on the regulatory tailwinds. With the token price decline, Uniswap has been embroiled in a downward trend in TVL and protocol fees since early December 2024. But with the launch of Uniswap V4 and the increased flexibility for smart contract developers, many new third-party applications are entering the market, any of which could reignite platform activity and potentially improve Uniswap's fundamentals and drive token price appreciation.
Bearish Token Roundup
Sky (SKY)
Sector: DeFi
Reason: While stablecoin supply has expanded, it may face revenue issues
Forecast period: February 21, 2025 to May 21, 2025
Forecast token price: $1447.95
Forecast performance to date: Up 2.63%
SKY/MKR has been rising for most of February, while its USDS/DAI stablecoin circulating supply has increased by 33%. However, a recent Sky governance proposal has asked delegates to consider lowering the stability fees across several major vaults - the interest charged to stablecoin borrowers. If passed, the governance proposal will also reduce the yield on sDAI and sUSDS from their current 7.25% and 8.75% levels to 4.75% and 6.50% (roughly in line with short-term US Treasury yields) to offset the revenue decline. While the higher-than-market yield has allowed Sky to expand its USDS/DAI supply in February, this expansion has been backed by low-yield stablecoins and RWA assets, causing the protocol to operate at a net loss throughout the month.
As a result, the Bankless analyst team is not optimistic about the subsequent performance of SKY/MKR, as they expect the protocol to face revenue issues in the near future as it tries to balance declining crypto interest rates with profitable business operations, which will require endogenous demand for crypto leverage and borrowers willing to pay higher rates.
Velodrome (VELO)
Sector: DEX
Reason: Declining liquidity and fees, VELO staking also decreasing
Forecast period: February 21, 2025 to May 21, 2025
Forecast token price: $0.07
Forecast performance to date: Down 10.13%
Velodrome previously launched an update called Slipstream V2, which will allow its pools to dynamically set fees based on market volatility to maximize returns for liquidity providers and veVELO stakers, but VELO has still experienced a crash.
Over the past 30 days, Velodrome's net deposits have declined by 28%, indicating that LPs are shifting their liquidity to other dApps to earn higher returns. Over the same period, the platform's fees have declined by 26%, suggesting that users hoping to swap tokens are also moving their business elsewhere. While the total supply of VELO is increasing weekly due to the emission schedule, the percentage of VELO locked has declined from 64% to 55% over the past year, indicating that users believe holding and selling the tokens later may yield better returns than locking them to earn LP rewards.
Lido (LDO)
Sector: LST
Reason: Overall decline in ETH staking services
Forecast period: February 14, 2025 to May 14, 2025
Forecast token price: $1.86
Forecast performance to date: Down 29.57%
On November 7, 2024, the Bankless analyst team was bullish on Lido, reasonably believing that Trump's election would spark optimism among investors in the crypto space. While Trump appointed some crypto-friendly politicians, there has been little progress on key issues.
While Lido holds a significant share of the ETH staking market, its holdings have seen significant changes, with over 200,000 ETH withdrawn from the platform previously. Lido is not the only staking service in decline, as over 1 million ETH have been unstaked since mid-November, the most aggressive contraction of ETH since the Merge.
As a result, the Bankless analyst team is bearish on Lido's subsequent performance, as ETH is not only flowing out of Lido but also out of other staking protocols.
Ethena (ENA)
Sector: Stablecoin
Reason: Declining funding rates, depositors may withdraw
Forecast period: January 21, 2025 to April 21, 2025
Forecast token price: $0.96
Forecast performance to date: Down 55.42%
The Bankless analyst team was previously bullish on ENA on October 18, 2024, optimistically believing that if the crypto bull market continued, the rising financing rates would catalyze Ethena's profitability and explosive growth in assets under management. ENA surged over 200% in the three months following this rating.
On January 20, the same day as the presidential inauguration, Trump's eldest son announced that the Trump family's World Liberty Financial project had acquired over $11 million in crypto assets, including $47,000 worth of ENA tokens. But since December, the market bubble has deflated significantly, causing the perpetual swap funding rates (Ethena's primary revenue source) to reset to "neutral" territory.
As a result, the Bankless analyst team has turned bearish on ENA's subsequent performance, concerned that the stagnant recovery of funding rates will force depositors to further withdraw from Ethena, just as they did in mid-2024 when ENA crashed 85% from its post-launch highs.
