Affected by factors such as the Trump tariff war, the cryptocurrency market has been weak recently, with BTC hitting a low of $82,236 today, a new low since mid-November last year. The Fear and Greed Index has also rarely dropped to an extreme fear level of 10, which has had a significant impact on the profitability of miners.
Half of the mainstream mining machines are approaching or touching the shutdown price
F2pool data shows that with BTC price around $84,800 and electricity price at $0.06/kWh, more than half of the mainstream BTC mining machines are on the verge of shutdown or already in loss. Among the 135 mainstream mining machines, 68 have a negative daily net income, accounting for about 50.4%. These machines cannot be profitable under the current electricity price.
Among the 67 mining machines that still have profit margins, 16 have electricity costs accounting for more than 60% of their revenue, including Antminer M33S+ and Antminer M30S+ with electricity costs accounting for 99%, and Antminer S19 with electricity costs reaching 100%, which are at the breakeven point.
For the latest generation of mining machines, the water-cooled Antminer S21 XP has an electricity cost ratio of only 35% and a daily net income of $15.12, with a shutdown BTC price of only $29,757, making it one of the more risk-resistant mining machines in the market. Closely following are the water-cooled Antminer S21e XP (shutdown BTC price $32,237) and Teraflux AI3680 (shutdown BTC price $37,197).
Is BTC showing a bottom signal?
The approach of mining machines to the shutdown price is seen by some analysts as a reference point for the "intrinsic value" of BTC. When the price approaches or falls below this level, the market may attract long-term investors, as they believe the price is close to the bottom.
However, when approaching the shutdown price, some miners may also choose to sell the BTC they have accumulated previously to pay for operating costs (such as electricity or equipment loans), which may increase the selling pressure in the market and further drive down the price. Therefore, the BTC price may not stabilize so quickly in the short term.
BTC spot ETF investors suffer heavy losses after the election
With the recent poor performance of BTC, BTC spot ETF investors have also suffered huge losses. According to a report by the Financial Times, Geoff Kendrick, head of global digital asset research at Standard Chartered, estimates that since the US election last year, the average purchase price of BTC spot ETFs is around $97,000, and investors who entered the market during this period have accumulated losses of about $1.3 billion.
Since the January high, the global cryptocurrency market has evaporated more than $800 billion. Gadi Chait, investment manager at Xapo Bank, analyzed that traders are disappointed that Trump has not been able to quickly implement the reforms promised during the campaign, and the market had originally expected the main pro-cryptocurrency policies to be implemented more quickly, but the progress has not been as expected, leading to a cooling of market sentiment.
The report points out that some traders had hoped that under Trump's leadership, the US government would start buying BTC and quickly introduce new regulations to encourage large financial institutions to invest in cryptocurrencies. However, Trump's most notable action after taking office was the launch of the official meme coin TRUMP in January, which has already plummeted 83% from its high, and Trump has been widely criticized for this.
Michael Dempsey, managing partner of venture capital firm Compound, said that Trump's issuance of a meme coin has led other politicians to imitate it, which has "effectively destroyed this market" in the short term.
Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise, said the market is currently digesting the end of the meme coin craze, and the loss of market vitality will weigh on the performance of cryptocurrencies before institutional investors return, as many investors have severely overestimated Trump's positive impact on the cryptocurrency industry.
