Editor's Note: This article analyzes the current situation in the crypto market, pointing out that the market is in a stage of skepticism and low sentiment, but there are still opportunities. The market will experience a slow correction, attracting retail investors to exit, while large players (such as BlackRock) are accumulating positions. Factors such as the stablecoin index and FTX compensation may drive the market to rebound.
Original Content (edited for readability):
We are now at one of the most polarized time points, with bulls believing this is the last correction before the altcoin season arrives, while bears think the bull market has already ended.
Here are all the possible scenarios and when the market might reverse.
Now, it's really hard to determine which stage of the cycle we're in:
On one hand, we haven't seen a true altseason yet (although we did experience a memecoin season). On the other hand, BTC has already surpassed its previous all-time high by 1.5x (or just 1.5x), and this bull market has lasted 12 months since the last all-time high, which is longer than any previous bull market.
Essentially, the cycle has been broken, making it difficult to predict what will happen next.
I see three possible scenarios:
· This is the last correction before the altseason begins (euphoria)
· This is the beginning of the end of the bull market (anxiety)
· The cycle has already ended (anger)
I believe we are now between the anger and depression stages, or in the belief/euphoria stage (which is almost the same), and for many, this may be the stage to exit the market, but for me, this is a stage full of opportunities.
Here's my take: I can't say retail investors are completely trapped, as I believe the bullish sentiment in the market is still very strong, so I don't think market makers will treat this correction as the beginning of a bear market. The key is to understand that the goal of market makers is to extract as much money as possible from us (retail).
To achieve this goal, in my view, the most likely scenario is a slow decline in the market over a month or more - just enough to make the believers lose hope, but not enough for them to give up completely, and they will eventually rush back into the altcoin market due to FOMO. That's why I'm starting to build positions slowly, as I believe there is still enough time for prices to drop further.
Here are the key factors currently affecting the market, and why I think so:
· Skepticism about Altseason
· The lack of a clear and direct altseason for a long time has had a negative impact on retail investors
· Now, it seems no one believes in altseason anymore
· Most have turned to the memecoin casino, while the rest have simply given up on altcoins
· This has led to a loss of hope, sentiment, and attention
Rampant Scams
· There have never been so many and so open scams in any cycle
· Every other broke celebrity is talking about crypto and launching tokens on SOL
· And they're 'rug pulling' them - 99% - in a matter of days, and doing it blatantly
· These events have had a negative impact on market sentiment
Trump - A Pro-Crypto President
· Trump once gave us great expectations: bullish on crypto, never selling BTC, BTC reserves
· But in reality, he is now far from crypto, hardly mentioning it anymore
· This has also had a negative impact on the current market
· However, we still remember that the US's BTC reserves have been confirmed
Bybit Hack
· The largest hack in crypto history, leading to a crash in ETH
· Bybit was hacked, with $150 million in ETH stolen, a huge amount
· Hacks always have a negative impact on overall market sentiment and the market itself
Bitcoin as a Macro Asset
· People still believe that if BTC goes up like this, other coins will follow - but that's not the case
· BTC has now become partly a macro asset, recognized globally
· This is why BTC can go up, but crypto itself may not necessarily follow
· On the other hand, when BTC goes down, altcoins also go down
· This is because there is an oversupply of altcoins in the market, so it's crucial to understand: altcoins will rise, but not all of them, it's not 2021 anymore. Choose wisely.
Stablecoin Index
· On the other hand, we have the stablecoin index, which is still far from the levels of previous cycles
· This index represents new capital entering the crypto market
· Currently, it's just starting to grow
Global Net Liquidity Index
· There is also an indicator that tracks the assets of major central banks and the Fed's reserves
· We are currently witnessing its reversal, which also signals a potential market reversal
· Now, it is also in an adjustment phase
FTX Compensation
· We also can't forget the FTX compensation, which has already started
· In the coming weeks, about $7 billion will be paid out, and these funds will also be reinvested into the market
· This will also provide a decent push for the market's growth
Leading Market Players
· The most bullish factor is still that leading market players are actively accumulating
· WorldLiberty, Michael Saylor, BlackRock - these leading companies are building positions on a large scale
· It's clear they're not doing this without a strategy or for no reason
Conclusion
· Looking at all the factors and the overall situation, things are not as bad as they seem, but the fact remains:
We are currently in a stage of skepticism
· It is precisely these moments that create the best opportunities
· Learn new skills, improve yourself, and be among the winners when this cycle ends
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