OSL Trading Time: The market may enter a consolidation period before the next decline, and the behavior of large investors will become a key indicator

1. Market Observation

Keywords: XRP, ETH, BTC

The current cryptocurrency market is in a turbulent period, with BTC and ETH, as the core of market development, attracting particular attention. The entire cryptocurrency market encountered a downturn on Tuesday, with major currencies such as BTC, ETH, XRP and Dogecoin suffering significant losses, and the total market value has fallen below the $3 trillion mark, and it is expected that there will be a period of consolidation before the next decline.

For BTC, facing the aggressive investor sentiment, the market performance is struggling, leading to a recent drop below the $90,000 mark. At the regulatory level, several states have taken a cautious attitude towards BTC: the Attorney General of Pennsylvania issued a warning, pointing out that the fraud methods of BTC ATMs are becoming increasingly sophisticated; at the same time, South Dakota and Montana have rejected the proposals for BTC reserve bills, considering the high volatility of BTC and the lack of practical application. Although Bernstein analysts predict that BTC may reach $200,000, in the current market conditions, the realization of this target still faces uncertainties.

The Ethereum ecosystem is also facing multiple challenges. At the governance level, Executive Director Aya Miyaguchi has chosen to resign due to criticism of her role in the Ethereum Foundation. At the technical level, the Ethereum upgrade Pectra encountered interruption issues after release due to developers' failure to specify the correct smart contract address. However, it is worth noting that the cost base distribution of Ethereum is showing a positive downward trend, indicating that investor sentiment and confidence in the currency are rising.

In terms of market dynamics, the well-known trading platform Bybit, despite suffering a well-planned malware attack last week that resulted in a loss of over $1.5 billion, still received a large amount of Ethereum deposits from Mirana Ventures' Arkham. This phenomenon occurred against the backdrop of tariff uncertainties and BTC breaking through a key support level, highlighting the complexity of the market.

Looking ahead, the behavior of whales (large holders) will become a key indicator of the market's direction. Data shows that these whales have transferred 26,430 BTC to known accumulation addresses. However, market signals indicate that the market structure of BTC is facing potential price adjustments and weakening support levels, and the future development needs to be closely monitored.

2. Key Data (as of 10:30 HKT on February 26)

• S&P 500: 5,955.25 points (YTD +1.25%)

• Nasdaq: 19,026.39 points (YTD -1.47%)

• 10-year US Treasury yield: 4.324% (YTD -25.20 bps)

• US Dollar Index: 106.37 (YTD -1.95%)

• BTC: $88,598 (YTD -5.16%), daily spot trading volume of $84.7 billion

• ETH: $2,485.23 (YTD -25.70%), daily spot trading volume of $39.25 billion

3. ETF Flows (February 25 EST)

• BTC ETF: -$773.41 million

• ETH ETF: -$50.08 million

4. Important Dates (Hong Kong Time)

GDP Quarterly Growth Rate Second Estimate (February 28 21:30)

• Actual: N/A / Previous: 3.1% / Expected: 2.3%

Core PCE Price Index MoM (February 28 21:30)

• Actual: N/A / Previous: 0.2% / Expected: 0.3%

Personal Consumption Expenditures MoM (February 28 09:30)

• Actual: N/A / Previous: 0.7% / Expected: 0.2%

5. Hot News

Hemi mainnet to launch on March 12, integrating BTC and ETH ecosystems

Ethereum Foundation Executive Director Aya Miyaguchi to transition to Chair role

AI company Anthropic plans to raise $3.5 billion, with a valuation of $61.5 billion

Aave votes to suspend lending on Polygon PoS chain, potentially leading to over $300 million TVL loss

SEC terminates investigation into Uniswap Labs, taking no enforcement action

SEC confirms receiving Grayscale's Ethereum spot ETF filing

In the past 1 hour, BlackRock has deposited 18,168.3 ETH and 1,800 BTC into Coinbase

Market news: Nasdaq has filed a 19b-4 application document for Grayscale's DOT ETF

BTC falls below $87,000, down 7.84% intraday

Binance Pre Market launches upward circuit breaker mechanism

Upbit to list KRW, BTC and USDT trading pairs for COW

Matrixport: BTC has broken below the rising wedge, beware of downside risks with low trading volume

Time.fun founder: Will consider issuing platform tokens in the future, but currently focus on product-market fit

US SEC accepts Grayscale's Cardano spot ETF filing

Fed's Bullard: Need to observe Trump policies before resuming rate cuts

Trump officially announces: Will proceed with tariff plans on Mexico and Canada as scheduled

Most tokens have fallen 30% to 80% since mid-December 2022, with SOL market cap shrinking by about $50 billion in a month

Today's Fear and Greed Index drops to 25, a new low since September 2024, with the market in extreme fear

Wall Street market maker Citadel Securities plans to enter the crypto market making space

Arthur Hayes: BTC could drop to $70,000

Ethereum's Pectra upgrade activated on the Holesky testnet but failed to be confirmed, developers are investigating

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