Followin' the ETF, last week the Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of $559 million, while the Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of $1.61 million
Accordin' to Lookonchain monitorin', Bybit has obtained approximately 446,869 ETH (worth about $1.23 billion) through loans, large account deposits, and ETH purchases after bein' hacked. Bybit is now close to makin' up for the fundin' gap caused by the hacker incident
This week, 5 crypto projects will unlock tokens, releasin' a total value of about $290 million.
On February 25, ALT will unlock about 24 million (worth about $11.72 million), accountin' for 2.401% of the total supply;
On February 26, ENA will unlock about 12.86 million (worth about $5.94 million), accountin' for 0.086% of the total supply;
On February 28, OP will unlock about 31.34 million (worth about $36.66 million), accountin' for 0.73% of the total supply;
On March 1, SUI will unlock about 64.72 million (worth about $220 million), accountin' for 0.647% of the total supply;
On March 1, ZETA will unlock about 44.4 million (worth about $14.75 million), accountin' for 2.114% of the total supply.
In terms of the market, Bit had little fluctuation over the weekend, and its recent volatility has basically dropped to the freezin' point, waitin' for a market turnaround, after which the market's volatility will rise sharply. Bit is still oscillatin' in the high-level range, without direction
In the borin' market, I don't know what to write for you, so let's focus on ETH and SOL
One is a continuous coin theft and dumpin', the other is a huge unlock
Let's talk about ETH first
BYBIT was hacked for $1.5 billion, over 400,000 ETH and stETH, and today lnfini was hacked for $50 million, which was converted to Eth and dumped on the market
Many people are worried about the prospect of Ethereum, so where is the tailwind for Ethereum?
There are two tailwinds, one is that the SEC has approved the Ethereum ETF staking, and the other is the Ethereum 2025 upgrade.
The first tailwind: the regulatory breakthrough of staked ETF
The Cboe BZX exchange has submitted a proposal to the SEC requestin' to allow the 21Shares Core Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) to stake Ethereum. Once approved, the ETH ETF will also become an income-generatin' asset class, which may ignite an investment frenzy in ETH ETFs. Shortly after, the New York Stock Exchange also proposed to stake Grayscale's Ethereum ETF
Once approved, it means that traditional investors not only can hold ETH, but also can earn 3.5%-5% annual yield through staking. It is estimated that if the SEC approves such ETFs, the annual staking revenue of Ethereum may exceed $5 billion, becomin' a "magnet" to attract traditional capital. More importantly, the openin' of the staking function will realize the transition of Ethereum ETF to an "income-generatin' asset" - staked ETF may open up a multi-trillion dollar market for ETH.
The second tailwind: Pectra upgrade to reshape the technical foundation
If ETF staking is the key to openin' the floodgates of capital, then the Pectra upgrade in April 2025 is the engine of Ethereum's self-revolution. This upgrade contains three killer features:
EIP-3074: Allowin' users to combine multiple transactions into one operation, with the Gas fee paid by a third party. This improvement directly targets the "user experience ailment" of Ethereum, and is expected to reduce the interaction cost of ordinary users by more than 50%. For example, project parties can "treat users to dinner" by payin' the Gas fee for users, completely eliminatin' the threshold for new people to enter DeFi.
EIP-7251: Increasin' the staking limit of a single validator node from 32 ETH to 2048 ETH. This change directly benefits institutions - services like Lido can reduce the number of nodes by 98%, reducin' maintenance costs while improvin' network speed. Analysts estimate that this move may attract over $20 billion in new staked funds.
ERC-7683 and 7841: Unification of cross-chain standards, makin' asset flow between Ethereum L2s as smooth as "high-speed rail transfer". Uniswap and Across Protocol have built cross-chain order systems based on this standard, with the transaction failure rate expected to drop by 70% and the liquidity pool depth to increase by more than 3 times.
If the first tailwind still has variables, then the arrival of the second tailwind is just a matter of time
However, Ethereum is around $2,566.5, and over 80 million long positions will be liquidated
The current ETH price is still controlled by centralized exchanges, and most centralized exchanges lack supervision. Before Ethereum takes off, they can easily "prick" you and "draw a U" to harvest, which is not difficult at all
Now let's talk about SOL
On March 1, 12.2 million SOL (worth $206 million) from the FTX bankruptcy auction will be unlocked, accountin' for about 2.29% of the current SOL circulating supply
1. Have you ever wondered about a question?
Was the previous Solana consensus too strong? It seems that everyone bought Solana, and my friends outside the circle used to hold a lot of ETH, and then exchanged it for SOL
When the consensus is too strong, the car will be too heavy, and a heavy car is not in the interest of the big players, because the sell pressure is too high. This is no different from playin' memecoin, there is nothin' new in finance.
So a conspiracy guess is that, in coordination with the so-called scandal exposure + huge unlock, they are deeply washin' the believers of SOL
Does the huge unlock really mean sell pressure?
An important question is that unlocking does not mean they have to sell in the market. This batch of chips can be OTC to the big players or other institutions who want to participate, $206 million is not a lot of money, it's gone with a small portion. But the market itself is a frightened bird, and it's all about expectations, the market will assume the worst case scenario, that this batch of huge chips will be sold in the market, so the best method is still to sell SOL first as a hedgin' measure. After all, we don't know how this batch of chips will be handled in the end, so sellin' first is definitely the right choice
How will SOL go forward?
My prediction is that during this period, in coordination with the scandal + huge unlock expectation, they will conduct a deep wash-out, I don't know how low it will be washed, maybe 120 or 130 are possible, I don't try to guess the bottom
As a trader, don't try to catch the absolute bottom, it's recommended to wait for the trend to be clear before buyin' in, bein' able to eat the fish's body is already very good, don't try to eat from head to tail
Tradin' is not about gettin' rich overnight, but about reasonable profits, bein' able to do it for a long time, stably, sustainably, and with high probability, so that you can constantly acquire wealth
Professional value creation, details determine success.
If you feel helpless or confused in the crypto market now, I hope my sharing can bring you some inspiration and help!
Group content:
Mainly spot tradin', there will be market analysis to layout trends in advance, potential coins to lay the foundation early, the cycle follows the evolution of the market, recommendations of altcoins when opportunities arise, spot tradin' as the main
Will choose more strong coins, try to get a few targets for small bets big, when the market is booming again, we must need coins with strong wealth effect to ignite the new bull market, catch one and make a big profit, catch a few and make a killing
Reasonable position control, mainstream as the bottom, altcoins for appreciation
