The market, project, cryptocurrency and other information, opinions and judgments mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
Written by 0xWeilan
This week, BTC opened at $96,119.99 and closed at $96,265.98, up 0.15% for the week, with a range of 6.43%, and trading volume has recovered somewhat. BTC price is still within the "Trump bottom" (89,000~110,000 USD range).
Along with US inflation and employment data, as well as Trump's tariff policy, the end of the Russia-Ukraine war is becoming one of the core factors affecting the financial markets.
The Russia-Ukraine war is gradually becoming clear that it will gradually end, transmitting to a drop in oil prices and a rise in rate cut expectations. But the Michigan inflation expectation data released on Friday again hit the market's weak rate cut expectations. The two offset each other, and the market view is leaning negative.
The three major US stock indexes, which rebounded to near their previous highs, all experienced sharp declines, returning to a downward trend.
The crypto market has seen the largest theft case in history, with the offshore exchange Bybit, closely linked to the Chinese community, having more than $1.46 billion in crypto assets stolen from its cold wallet on February 21. This sudden crisis and inflation expectations have abruptly ended the rise towards $100,000 for BTC, returning it to the $96,000 level.
However, as the clearance is nearing completion and the adjustment is relatively sufficient, the crypto market has not fallen again in the face of the overlapping internal and external crises, but has achieved a slight increase within the week. ETH, which had previously suffered heavy losses, also rebounded 2.04%.
For the medium-term trend of the crypto market, EMC Labs continues to maintain a neutral-to-positive judgment. Although the US CPI has rebounded, the market has basically completed the pricing of the downward adjustment of rate cut expectations, and the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the increase in oil production all point to a decline in oil prices, based on which the rate cut expectations may be revised upwards in the near future.
Macro Finance and Economic Data
The US and Russia held preliminary talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to discuss the possibility of ending the "Russia-Ukraine war" and made breakthrough progress. The parties to the negotiations are gradually approaching the final outcome.
Trump called on OPEC to increase oil production, causing Brent crude oil prices, which had previously rebounded, to plummet 3.08% on the 21st, wiping out the entire weekly gain.
On Friday, the University of Michigan released February data, with consumers expecting prices to rise at an annual rate of 3.5% over the next five to ten years, the highest level since 1995. At the same time, the February consumer confidence index fell from 71.7 in January to 64.7. This report reinforces the resilience of inflation and again weakens the market's rate cut expectations, becoming the most impactful news for the market this week.
For most of the week, the three major US stock indexes have been making small rebounds, gradually approaching their previous historical highs. After the release of the University of Michigan data, the market plummeted, with the Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and S&P 500 falling 2.51%, 2.51%, and 1.66% within the week, respectively.
London gold and the US 10-year bond yield were again pushed up by safe-haven funds, rising 1.81% and falling 1.11% within the week, respectively.
Selling Pressure and Selling
In terms of selling pressure, long and short positions sold a total of 135,994 coins, continuing to decline, with both upward and downward forces being insufficient. Exchange outflows exceeded 10,000 coins, with no significant changes in trends.
The changes in long and short positions' floating profits are not significant, with long positions at 289% and short positions at 4%, and currently there is no significant selling pressure.
Stablecoins and BTC Spot ETF
Stablecoins and BTC Spot ETF are showing divergence again. Stablecoins saw inflows of $1.117 billion for the week, while BTC ETF saw outflows of over $546 million.
The deteriorating US stock market environment has led to continued outflows of funds from BTC Spot ETF, which is still the main reason for BTC's weakness.
Cycle Indicators
According to the eMerge engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.375, and the market is in an upward consolidation period.
EMC Labs (Emergence Labs) was founded in April 2023 by crypto asset investors and data scientists. It focuses on blockchain industry research and Crypto secondary market investment, with industry foresight, insight and data mining as its core competitiveness, committed to participating in the thriving blockchain industry through research and investment, and promoting blockchain and crypto assets to bring well-being to humanity.
For more information, please visit: https://www.emc.fund
