Sharing a short essay on the recent Consensus conference in Hong Kong:
1) Similar to previous conference runs, many people were running around the side events around the main venue. Combined with unfamiliarity with the HK map, the running around and dinner meetings left everyone's legs and feet exhausted, with physical fatigue beyond description. However, this is nothing, the mental exhaustion is even more tiring, with no end in sight.
2) Despite the overall environment, large and small activities were still packed with people, with no sign of a bearish sentiment. Perhaps most people came for the "emotional value". The Solana ecosystem was the real crowd puller, with events consistently packed to the brim, even catching the attention of the authorities. In comparison, Ethereum, BTC layer2 and related activities were much more gloomy. It seems like a chaotic scene, with each taking their turn on stage, though they too had their moments of glory in the past.
3) Although it was the Consensus conference, after interacting with many people, it felt like the least "consensual" Consensus conference? The "consensus" in the industry is being seriously torn apart. The technical narrative PVE consensus is dejected under the MEME narrative PVP consensus, the diamond-hand holder's consensus is too shy to speak up against the young trader's consensus, the veteran technical build consensus is out of place compared to some marketing-driven Tokenomics projects. Seemingly a fragmentation of consensus, but underlying it is the collapse of the industry's unified value system. After Consensus, Polarization may become the norm.
4) Many crypto veterans have reflected that "the market environment has changed". In fact, the market is never wrong, it's just that the old-timers' "empiricism" is no longer applicable. The old-timers used the logic of bull-bear cycle conversion from the past two cycles to trade, only to find the four-year cycle conversion invalid. The market now defines bull markets around hot narratives, coming and going without a trace, by the time you're still convinced the bull market has just begun, it's already over.
5) No need to complain that it's harder to make money now, it's just that the audience making money has changed, the modes and logic of making money have changed. The current market has assets in abundance, with market attention (Mindshare) controlling liquidity wealth. The young 00s who can stay up late are willing to charge in, make money and run, with the energy and courage, becoming the lucky ones in this round of PVP narrative. In comparison, the old-timers' diamond-hand PVE mindset has no chance of winning. But every PVP wealth feast eventually has a massive exodus of liquidity, it's unclear how long this squid game can last.
6) I can feel the melancholy of a group of technology narrative idealist Builders. This sense of failure is different from the past. In the words of an old OG, the technical Roadmap has been implemented step by step, the TGE has been done as required, the community has also been maintained, and the narrative has been continuously updated to align with hot topics, but the token price just won't rise. For those who do things with idealism, if they can't get the corresponding rewards from the market in the long run, does it mean the exhaustion of innovative power? If the crypto industry loses the idealistic hacker spirit, what spirit will it use to counter the casino stigma from the outside world? Do we even need to pretend anymore?
7) The people on the AI Agent bandwagon have mostly been badly burned, but most people still firmly believe in the future of the AI + Crypto narrative. I've always emphasized that, aside from the short-term application value of AI Agent landing, the value of AI Agent in revitalizing the old narratives of layer2, ZK, modularization, chain abstraction, etc. is the key. It can give the old narratives new build directions, and give the non-landing infra the possibility of application pre-positioning. In comparison, the sacrifices brought by the current AI Agent bubble burst are negligible compared to its future industry-wide reconstruction value.
8) The logic of the secondary market has completely changed, BTC stands alone in the sky with the support of off-exchange ETF capital, while the on-chain ETH and SOL, BSC are fighting fiercely at the ecological level, but no matter how they fight, the market unanimously believes that there is no across-the-board bull run, no alt season. The choice of locomotive determines the harvest, and if you choose wrong, the result will be embarrassing, for example, if you unfortunately side with layer2.
9) The on-chain world has become the hope for most people in the crypto world, but compared to the difficulty of making money in the CEX secondary market, the pure PVP environment on the chain is also a huge challenge for most audiences. After the chaotic and disorderly era, the on-chain world must be rebuilt from the full chain of asset issuance, community cohesion, CEX connection, and technical application landing. Obviously, a on-chain story without asset issuance threshold restrictions and continuous technical innovation empowerment cannot truly change the Crypto world.
