Author: TIGER
I've thought about it for a long time, but still decided to record this. The pain, self-doubt, regret, and the feeling of losing the fruits of my efforts during this stage. This is more for recording purposes, rather than for a review. A review may require more rationality.
First of all, I declare that I am not a perpetual profit blogger, and I don't have an invincible amount of capital. The $2M loss is the accumulation of many years, earned penny by penny, and from various hot spots. It is also one of the largest drawdowns since I entered this circle.
1. Contracts on Hype
In 2018, I once lost more than 2,000 Ethereum and 100 BTC on contracts. That painful experience made me secretly vow to myself not to touch contracts again, except for hedging.
At the end of the year, Hyperliquid was hot. I entered with $5wu and earned $10wu. I determined that Hype, as one of the few innovations this round, would continuously erode the market share of CEXs, so I decided to heavily position Hype at over $20.
Since Hype itself is a contract platform, it contradicts my rule of not touching contracts. But I also wanted to experience more of Hype's platform features, so I decided to use 3x leverage with unlimited margin. In the end, I put $1M of margin on the contract platform, which laid the groundwork for the huge losses that followed.
In 2018, when I set the "never contract" flag, I would never have imagined my 2025 self would tear up that vow on Hyperliquid.
A sweet start of $5wu to $10wu, the crazy decision to heavily position at $20, the fatal operation of $1M margin with 3x leverage... Behind these numbers hides a devilish whisper: "This time is really different".
2. AI agent
Yes, I missed the AI agent's surge. And I bought the top.
Actually, I didn't have a large position, but as described earlier, I had $1M in the Hype contract, and I chose to use $20w to chase a leveraged position in AI agent. Compared to the Hype position, I thought it was much smaller, but I still underestimated the power of leverage.
In the end, I bought the top of Virtual and AI6Z. The initial decline didn't feel too bad, after all, the market hype and narrative were still good. But later, Trump's market bloodsucking and Deepseek's impact on the US stock AI sector caused the entire crypto AI agent to lose faith. I abandoned the position midway, and with less than $20w in margin, I lost over $80w.
When I chased the AI agent with $20w, I made a mistake that veteran traders should never make: treating leverage as a magnifying glass, but forgetting that it is also a distorting mirror. When Deepseek raided the US stocks, my position collapsed in distortion, and $800,000 evaporated faster than the spread of the bearish news.
7 years later, I stumbled again on contracts.
3. Meme
I was aware of the importance of this meme round early on, so I've been building my own weapon toolbox, various on-chain monitoring, and quick purchases by smart money. But the results didn't turn out as imagined, and all my efforts seemed rather ridiculous.
Let me just talk about a few major nodes:
1) Pnut
Continuous attention and heavy positioning on Pnut allowed me to earn up to $1M at my highest. But it was also from Pnut that, due to the rapid realization of profits, my operations became more aggressive and my risk appetite increased. The investment proportion in Altcoins was not as large as before.
It can be said that the success of Pnut was a major factor in this round's huge total drawdown.
"$1M in profits is arsenic coated in sugar, it makes you forget the common sense that Altcoins should be lightly positioned."
2) Trump
All the on-chain tools, monitoring, and big V smart money comments we self-made were no match for my sleeping at 3am in the European time zone!
With my aggressive investment style at the time, 90% of the monitored addresses achieved big results, and I should have no problem making $10m by putting in a few hundred k.
But as I was in Europe, I just happened to be the one who missed Trump's batch. With my investment style at the time and a bunch of self-made monitoring programs, I can really say I missed a lifetime opportunity.
The next day, besides waking up with regret, I happened to be in the most important moment of my real life - welcoming a new child in the delivery room.
As the saying goes, "when it rains, it pours". While I was busy in the delivery room, I saw in the bathroom that Trump's wife's coin issuance caused a 40% flash crash in Trump. Since the inauguration ceremony had not yet arrived, I thought the 40% flash crash in Trump was an entry opportunity, and immediately sold a lot of Altcoins and bought 40wu at around $50.
Then I welcomed the newborn, and at the same time had 2-3 days without much time to think about and operate my leveraged AI agent token and the high-position Trump token.
Huge losses piled up.
When the baby's first cry coincided with the 40% flash crash in Trump tokens, I understood for the first time what it means to be "double killed by fate".
3) Argentina President
After the major drawdown of Trump, I was already regretful. Theoretically missing out on a billion, and then the crazy losses in Altcoins, made me determined to recognize the losses and withdraw. I planned to calm down my mood and state before making any new plans.
However, it just so happened that the event of the Argentine president issuing a coin caught my eye immediately.
This time I was awake, and entered within 10 minutes of the opening. This was my moment in life, I told myself.
My wallet didn't have enough, so I withdrew from the CEX in 10 minutes and made several additional purchases, putting $20w in at an average price of $3.
After buying, I also separately called my good brothers in the European, American, and Chinese time zones. (Clown)
While refreshing the messages, I also confirmed the authenticity of the coin issuance. Although I thought Trump's price was only $20b left, and there wouldn't be excess returns here, I was still obsessed with the "early" entry this time.
Profits quickly reached 50%, and I had my finger on the 75% sell button, wanting to break even. But then I saw the 10% transaction tax, and after confirming it several times, the price had already started to decline.
The window of opportunity to sell out was too short. When it dropped to $2, I saw the news that the dev was unilaterally adding liquidity to sell out. But with my aversion to losses, I thought that as long as the president's coin issuance was not a false event, there would eventually be a rebound, and I could sell with less loss on the rebound.
The subsequent decline and rug event, everyone knows about it. In the end, I lost 80%. Exhausted, I covered myself with a blanket and fell asleep at 5am, because if I didn't sleep, I would die.
The $20w bet on the Argentine president's token became the most expensive alarm clock - it taught me that the sun at 5am never shines on the remains of a rug pull.
Written at the end
"All 'wealth codes' are secretly marked with time zones - and you are always in the wrong one"
No matter how much you prepare, getting rich requires a bit of "fate".
This is not a review, just a record of a broken-hearted me.
Encourage myself a bit, I have successfully made many right decisions, have operated web2 products with millions of daily active users, and have also accumulated millions of fans from scratch. I have experienced major setbacks several times, but I have always stood up.
This time, I believe I can too. Sturdier wings can grow from the ruins.
Stranger friends, if possible, leave a message to cheer me up, and also accumulate some good fortune for you. Our opportunity has not yet arrived, but it is on the way.
