Author: Murphy, on-chain data analyst
——You don't know until you compare
Realized Price (RPC) is a concept often used in on-chain data. Before understanding RPC, we need to first understand Realized Cap (RC). RC is the total valuation based on the price at which the tokens were last moved.
RC excludes the interference factors such as lost or long-term illiquid tokens, and better reflects the true value stored in the entire blockchain network;
Dividing RC by the current circulating supply gives the RPC. The higher the price at which the tokens are sold (moved), the more sufficient the follow-up capital, and vice versa. That is to say, only the continuous high-level buying of real money can make the RPC rise, so it is also the most direct basis for observing the flow of capital.
At the same time, RPC is also seen as the average turnover cost. Whenever there is a pullback, RPC can play an important supporting role. Once the price falls below the RPC, it means that the average is in a loss state. At this time, the asset price is "undervalued", and when the cost performance appears, it will attract more buy-the-dips capital, gradually forming a bottom range.
BTC
Figure 1 shows the RPC data of BTC at different coin ages (holding time). It can be seen that in the 4 long-term holder (LTH) groups, the longer the holding time, the lower the average cost. The cost of 3-6 months (3-6 m) is $69,200; the cost of 2-3 years (2-3 y) is $28,158; that is, even if BTC falls back to $30,000 one day, these LTH groups will still make a profit.
(Figure 1)
As of February 13, the RPC of BTC is $40,927, and at the current price of $96,600, investors have an average unrealized gain of 136%, and the holding experience is excellent! Therefore, when the BTC price fluctuates, the panic selling pressure is not large, and it will not trigger a chain reaction, which is also one of the reasons why BTC "does not fall deeply" in this cycle. Such a low RPC obviously cannot be used as a reference price for the support of the bull market cycle, but it can be used as a judgment standard for the bottom stage of the bear market cycle.
On 2023.2.16, the RPC of BTC is $19,424, an increase of 210% in 2 years; during the same period, the BTC price increased from $23,600 to $96,600, an increase of 409%. The increase in price is much higher than the increase in absorbed capital, indicating that in addition to capital, BTC has also attracted more mainstream emotional value (high market attention).
SOL
Figure 2 shows the RPC data of SOL at different coin ages. The holding experience of SOL investors has also been very good in the past 2 years. It can be seen that the average cost of all long-term holding groups is lower than the current SOL price. The cost of 3-6 m is $167, and the cost of 2-3 y is $71;
(Figure 2)
As of February 13, the RPC of SOL is $141; at the current price of $194, investors have an average unrealized gain of 37%. From this point of view, the stability of the SOL coin structure is far inferior to BTC. But on the other hand, $141 is also a very strong support level. As long as the bull market consensus remains, the closer to this line, the smaller the selling pressure, and the stronger the buy-the-dips sentiment.
On 2023.2.16, the RPC of SOL is $39, which is the only mainstream coin with a spot price lower than the RPC at that time. In other words, at that time, SOL was the most undervalued among the major coins, with the highest cost performance. After 2 years, the RPC increased by 361%; during the same period, the SOL price increased from $22 to $195, an increase of 886%. Similarly, the increase in price is much higher than the increase in absorbed capital (better than BTC), indicating that in this cycle, SOL also has an extremely high market attention.
BNB
Figure 3 shows the RPC data of BNB at different coin ages. As the only token empowered by Binance and the BNB Chain, it is worthy of the title "mainstream". Therefore, let's also take a look at its data performance.
(Figure 3)
The cost of 3-6 m is $575, and the cost of 2-3 y is $301; similarly, the average cost of all long-term holding groups is lower than the current BNB price. There is a detail that during the period from February 5 to February 8, the BNB price fell to around $570, which just produced support at the RPC line of 6-12 m, and then began to rebound.
As of February 13, the RPC of BNB is $495; at the current price of $665, investors have an average unrealized gain of 34%. But we can find that during the period from 2024.10.4 to 2024.10.7, the RPC of BNB suddenly soared from $206 to $463.
This data is very strange, and is rarely seen on other mainstream coins with more dispersed coin structures. It also reflects the special characteristics of the BNB coin structure from the side. Only when a large amount of coin reaches a certain circulation ratio suddenly moves at a high level will it cause an abnormal RPC. Therefore, whether the current RPC of $495 can provide support is not easy to evaluate (the data may be interfered with).
On 2023.2.16, the RPC of BNB is $81, which is far lower than the spot price of $304 at that time; therefore, in terms of cost performance, it is not as good as SOL or BTC. But if the additional earnings such as Launchpool, Megadrop, and HODLer that can be obtained by holding BNB are also calculated, it may be a different story.
ETH
Figure 4 shows the RPC data of ETH at different coin ages. Why did I put the data of ETH at the end? Because compared to the above 3, its data performance is the least ideal.
(Figure 4)
The cost of 3-6 m is $2,923, and the cost of 6-12 m is $3,088; that is to say, ETH is currently the only mainstream coin that still leaves investors who have held for 12 months on average in a loss state.
As of February 13, the RPC of ETH is $2,104, which just happens to be the lowest point (producing strong support) of the plunge on February 3. At the current price of $2,700, investors have an average unrealized gain of only 24%. This proportion is lower than SOL and BNB, and much lower than BTC.
On 2023.2.16, the RPC of ETH is $1,482; the increase in 2 years is 142%; during the same period, the ETH price increased from $1,639 to $2,700, an increase of 164%. The increase in price is almost the same as the increase in absorbed capital, indicating that in this cycle, ETH has the lowest emotional value. Or it can be said that the market has the lowest expectations for it compared to BTC and SOL.
Summary
1. From the perspective of the stability of the coin structure, BTC is far better than other mainstream coins. The long-term holding group currently has an average unrealized gain of 136%. SOL and BNB are about the same, at 37% and 34% respectively; ETH is the lowest, only 24%. That is to say, the current spot price of ETH is closest to the average turnover cost, the holding experience of ETH holders is the worst, and once the price falls below this support, it is easy to trigger a chain reaction.
2. From the comparison of the price increase and the increase in absorbed capital in the past 2 years, BTC and SOL are more favored by emotions, or can be said to be endowed with higher expectations.
3. Due to the abnormality of BNB's RPC data in October 2024, the current RPC cannot be judged whether it has been interfered with. If not, then the holding experience of BNB holders is also very good. At the same time, holding BNB can get additional mining or airdrop rewards every month, which is also a bonus.
4. Finally, ETH... How should I evaluate ETH? As one of the only two crypto assets that have passed the ETF, it is of high quality. But the various performances of the Ethereum Foundation are not to be commended. As the founder, Vitalik is undoubtedly a genius developer, but he may not be a qualified leader at the moment.
My sharing is for learning and communication only, and not as investment advice.
