The recovery of ETH spot ETF cannot hide the market’s indifference, and the epic unlocking of SOL may become a turning point for the ‘gold pit’!

Here is the English translation: Last Friday, the cryptocurrency market saw a slight rebound, with BTC and ETH prices both rising, and signs of improved capital flow in spot ETFs. Particularly for ETH, it has seen positive inflows for two consecutive days, injecting a glimmer of confidence into the market. On Thursday, BlackRock stood out, while on Friday, Fidelity became the main source of capital inflows. However, overall, market activity remains limited, with only Grayscale and Fidelity data showing fluctuations. Grayscale continues to reduce its ETH holdings, but the selling volume on Friday was only 1,512 ETH, with a relatively small impact on the market. The current market has entered a "wait-and-see" period, and spot ETF data more reflects the sentiment of US investors, making it difficult to have a decisive impact on prices. Looking at the performance in the 29th week, the buying power of the ETH spot ETF has declined significantly, which is related to the high base caused by BlackRock's massive purchase of over 100,000 ETH in the 28th week. Even so, the data in the 29th week is still the lowest level in the past five weeks. As of now, the cumulative net inflow of the ETH spot ETF since its trading debut has reached 723,187 ETH. In terms of holdings distribution, Grayscale ranks first with 1,780,684 ETH (ETHE holds 1,303,257 ETH), BlackRock ranks second with 1,366,069 ETH, and Fidelity ranks third with 456,921 ETH. The holdings of other institutions are relatively small, and the market concentration is relatively high. At the same time, SOL is about to face a round of epic-scale unlocking, which has attracted much market attention. According to network-wide data, on March 1, the FTX bankruptcy asset package will unlock 12 million SOL (about $2.1 billion) and will continue to be released until 2029. This news, combined with the current depressed market sentiment, has put pressure on the SOL price, with the critical support level of $150 in jeopardy. However, further analysis reveals that the situation may not be as simple as it appears on the surface. 97.5% of SOL is already in circulation, and this unlocking only accounts for 2% of the total market capitalization, with limited actual impact. In addition, most of the institutions that bought the low-priced FTX locked-up SOL are still waiting for a 10-fold return, and the possibility of large-scale selling in the short term is relatively low. Even the $125 million unlocking of the Grayscale SOL Trust is just a "drop in the bucket" compared to SOL's $100 billion market capitalization. On-chain data shows that the 42 million SOL held by FTX cannot be dumped all at once, and the real selling pressure is expected to be concentrated in 2025. Therefore, the first unlocking on March 1 is more like a psychological battle, and smart money may use market panic to take positions in advance. It is worth noting that large wallets have placed a lot of buy orders in the $150-160 range, and if the price falls below the trend line, it may form a stage "golden pit".