Odaily星球日报讯 Grayscale 研究主管 Zach Pandl 在接受采访时表示：“美联储降息暂时是不可能的。” 他指出，短期内这对比特币等风险资产不利，因为市场正在进一步消化美联储推迟降息的预期。Pandl 认为，1 月 CPI 数据超预期（同比上涨 3%），核心通胀也上升至 3.3%，表明通胀依然顽固。Pandl 还警告称，若通胀持续超预期，美联储甚至可能重新讨论加息，这对市场情绪将构成更大冲击。

Odaily星球日报讯 Grayscale 研究主管 Zach Pandl 在接受采访时表示：“美联储降息暂时是不可能的。”他指出，短期内这对比特币等风险资产不利，因为市场正在进一步消化美联储推迟降息的预期。Pandl 认为，1 月 CPI 数据超预期（同比上涨 3%），核心通胀也上升至 3.3%，表明通胀依然顽固。Pandl 还警告称，若通胀持续超预期，美联储甚至可能重新讨论加息，这对市场情绪将构成更大冲击。

Grayscale研究主管：美联储降息短期无望，比特币承压

Odaily Odaily report: Grayscale research head Zach Pandl said in an interview that "it is impossible for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates for now." He pointed out that this is unfavorable for risk assets such as Bitcoin in the short term, as the market is further digesting the expectation of the Federal Reserve delaying interest rate cuts. Pandl believes that the January CPI data exceeded expectations (up 3% year-on-year), and core inflation also rose to 3.3%, indicating that inflation remains stubborn. Pandl also warned that if inflation continues to exceed expectations, the Federal Reserve may even reconsider raising interest rates, which will have a greater impact on market sentiment.

Odaily Odaily report: Grayscale research chief Zach Pandl said in an interview that "it is impossible for the Fed to cut interest rates for the time being." He pointed out that this is unfavorable for risk assets such as Bitcoin in the short term, as the market is further digesting the expectation of the Fed delaying interest rate cuts. Pandl believes that the January CPI data exceeded expectations (up 3% year-on-year), and core inflation also rose to 3.3%, indicating that inflation remains stubborn. Pandl also warned that if inflation continues to exceed expectations, the Fed may even re-discuss rate hikes, which will have a greater impact on market sentiment.

Grayscale Research Director: There is no hope for the Fed to cut interest rates in the short term, Bitcoin is under pressure

Odaily Report: Mohamed El-Erian, former CEO of PIMCO and current Dean of the University of Cambridge's Queens' College, stated that in the face of higher-than-expected inflation data, the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates "for a considerable period of time" and may even tolerate higher inflation to protect economic growth. El-Erian pointed out on Wednesday that if the Federal Reserve was truly committed to achieving a 2% inflation target, it should theoretically be raising rates now. However, the reality is that the Federal Reserve is more likely to keep rates unchanged and tolerate higher inflation to preserve economic momentum and the "exceptionalism" of the United States. Due to higher-than-expected inflation in the US, bond traders have pushed back their bets on the next Federal Reserve rate cut to December. Swap contracts related to future Federal Reserve decisions have been repriced after the January CPI data exceeded expectations. Previously, the market had expected the Federal Reserve to cut rates before September. The new rate level implies that the market is betting on the Federal Reserve cutting rates by only 0.25 percentage points this year. Regarding the January CPI data, El-Erian frankly admitted that "on the surface, this is not good news for the Federal Reserve. They will continue to reassure the market that everything will be fine, but I think the pause button will be pressed for longer than the market expects." El-Erian criticized Federal Reserve Chair Powell and his colleagues for overreacting to economic data and conveying confusing forward guidance to investors, exacerbating market volatility. He bluntly stated that "this Federal Reserve lacks a strategic anchor, they have not provided meaningful forward policy guidance, which is a major failure." He added that the hot inflation data is not an "outlier" as it is consistent with other economic data. Furthermore, the report shows that businesses and consumers are now more sensitive to actual and expected cost increases. He said, "This is a different economy," hinting that the US economic situation has changed from before. Economists at Bank of America, such as Aditya Bhave, said the January CPI report has strengthened their confidence that the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle has ended. "Rate hikes now seem less unthinkable," they wrote in a report after the data release.

Top economists: The Fed will pause rate cuts for a long time and should theoretically raise rates

Odaily Odaily report: MainSky Asset Management analyst Eckhard Schulte said that the slow progress of US inflation may mean that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates until the fall, or may not cut interest rates at all this year. "This is not our core assumption, but ultimately it will not establish a new 'market stasis'," Schulte said. The higher-than-expected US inflation data in January prompted a knee-jerk reaction in the US bond market, with yields rising. Schulte said this would only happen if the Federal Reserve discussed possible rate hikes. "But as long as the inflation situation does not deteriorate significantly in the coming months, this will not happen." (Jinshi)

Analyst: Fed may not cut rates until fall

Here is the English translation:

On February 13, the latest data showed that the US CPI rose 0.5% month-on-month in January, the largest increase since August 2023, and the core CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, with inflation data exceeding expectations across the board.

After the CPI data was released, the three major US stock indexes initially fell, but then news emerged that there could be a glimmer of hope in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, causing US stocks to pare their losses and rebound, eventually closing with mixed results - the S&P 500 index fell 0.27%, the Dow Jones fell 0.50%, and the Nasdaq managed to eke out a 0.03% gain. Large-tech stocks had a mixed performance, with Tesla leading the rally with a 2.44% surge, ending a five-day losing streak.

The cryptocurrency market saw a volatile upward move, with <BTC> briefly dipping to $94,000 after the CPI release, but then rebounding quickly, breaking above $98,000 by early morning, and trading at $97,762 at the time of writing, down 1.85% in the past 24 hours. <ETH> also saw a significant rebound, surging over 5% to break above $2,700. The BSC chain's rising popularity has driven a strong rally in <BNB>, boosting the broader ecosystem.

In the forex and commodities markets, the US dollar index hit a new daily high on the CPI report, but later pared gains to trade roughly flat. Oil prices ended a three-day rally, falling nearly 3% intraday, pressured by dovish signals from Powell and easing geopolitical tensions. Spot gold, after hitting a record high on Tuesday, underwent a correction but then saw a V-shaped reversal, ending the day up 0.2%, buoyed by safe-haven demand.