Odaily星球日报讯 国泰君安发布研报称，美国 1 月核心 CPI 环比上升 0.4%，高于市场预期，打击了市场的降息预期，加上鲍威尔表示“不急于降息”，市场推后今年降息时间点。当前“特朗普交易”表现不佳，美元资产走势纠结。3 月美联储大概率再次跳过降息，美债或在本月保持小幅波动，市场整体处于等待新方向的状态。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 国泰君安发布研报称，美国 1 月核心 CPI 环比上升 0.4%，高于市场预期，打击了市场的降息预期，加上鲍威尔表示“不急于降息”，市场推后今年降息时间点。当前“特朗普交易”表现不佳，美元资产走势纠结。3 月美联储大概率再次跳过降息，美债或在本月保持小幅波动，市场整体处于等待新方向的状态。（金十）

国泰君安：美联储将再次跳过降息，市场仍然缺乏能见度

Odaily Odaily News reports that Guotai Junan Securities issued a research report stating that the US core CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month in January, higher than market expectations, dampening market expectations for rate cuts. In addition, Powell said he was "in no hurry to cut rates", causing the market to postpone the timing of rate cuts this year. The current "Trump trade" is performing poorly, and the US dollar assets are in a dilemma. The Fed is most likely to skip another rate cut in March, and US Treasuries may fluctuate slightly this month, with the market as a whole waiting for a new direction. (Gold Ten)

Odaily reports that Guotai Junan Securities issued a research report stating that the US core CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month in January, higher than market expectations, dampening market expectations for rate cuts. In addition, Powell said he was "in no hurry to cut rates", causing the market to postpone the timing of rate cuts this year. The current "Trump trade" is performing poorly, and the US dollar assets are struggling. The Fed is most likely to skip another rate cut in March, and US Treasuries may fluctuate slightly this month, with the market overall waiting for a new direction. (Jinshi)

Guotai Junan: The Fed will skip rate cuts again, and the market still lacks visibility

Odaily Odaily News: "Fed Mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos: The strong performance of the inflation data in January undermines the Fed's rationale for further "recalibrating" the path of rate cuts before the middle of the year. (Gold Ten)

Fed mouthpiece: It will be difficult for the Fed to adjust the interest rate cut path before mid-year

Odaily Odaily News reports that Goldman Sachs analyst Whitney Watson said that the inflation data released today may further consolidate the Federal Reserve's cautious accommodative policy path. The robust labor market also provides room for the Federal Reserve to remain patient. We believe that the Federal Reserve may currently maintain a wait-and-see mode and is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting next month. (Gold Ten)

Goldman Sachs: Expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at next month's meeting

Here is the English translation:

On February 12, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said on Tuesday that given the overall strength of the economy, the solid labor market, and inflation still above the 2% target, the Fed does not need to rush to adjust interest rates, hinting that officials will remain patient on the issue of rate cuts.

According to 4E monitoring, after Powell's speech, the three major U.S. stock indexes briefly touched intraday lows, and their performances at the close were mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.28%, the S&P 500 index rose 0.03%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.36%. Most large-cap tech stocks fell, with Tesla plunging 6.34%, the biggest single-day drop since December 18, while Nvidia ended a five-day winning streak.

The cryptocurrency market followed the tech stocks lower, with Bitcoin experiencing significant volatility in the evening, briefly falling below $95,000, and quoted at $95,962 at the time of writing, down 1.92% in the last 24 hours. Ethereum performed even more weakly, with the price falling nearly 3% to the current $2,603, and most <Altcoins> also saw significant declines. The overall market sentiment is bearish, and investors are clearly concerned about the uncertainty of macroeconomic policies.

In the foreign exchange and commodity markets, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.35% to end a three-day winning streak, while the British pound, euro, and Australian and New Zealand currencies performed well; geopolitical tensions continued, and oil prices rose for the third consecutive session, with Brent crude closing up nearly 1.5%; after setting three consecutive all-time highs in the past three days, gold investors began to take profits, and the spot price fell 0.32% in the late session, breaking below $2,900.

The market generally believes that Powell's speech summarized the Fed's path in 2025: if there is no progress in lowering inflation, it will keep rates unchanged; if the economic slowdown is more severe, it will cut rates. Data shows that most economists expect the Fed to cut rates again next quarter, rather than the previously widely expected March cut. The market will see the latest inflation data in the next two days, namely the U.S. January CPI on Wednesday and the PPI inflation data on Thursday.

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