The Bit spot ETF was officially approved for listing by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in early January last year, marking the formal entry of cryptocurrencies into the traditional financial market; and with U.S. President Trump expressing a friendly attitude towards cryptocurrencies, major asset management companies have also successively submitted applications for other cryptocurrency ETFs, including SOL, Doge, XRP, and LTC, and even the official meme coin TRUMP launched by Trump last month.
Grayscale Submits ADA Spot ETF Application
Just this week, according to a document filed by NYSE Arca under the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on February 10, the NYSE has officially submitted an application for the world's first Cardano spot ETF to the U.S. SEC on behalf of asset management giant Grayscale.
The document shows that the name of this spot ETF product is Grayscale Cardano Trust, which plans to have Coinbase as the custodian and BNY Mellon Asset Servicing as the trust administrator. In the application document, the NYSE explains this ETF as follows:
This product can fill the current market gap, the first ADA spot ETF, which not only can promote market competition, but also will bring more choices for investors, which can drive the continuous development of the market.
ADA Price Jumps 16% at One Point
Inspired by this, the ADA price once surged 16% to break through $0.8, but due to the impact of the Bitcoin drop this morning, it has fallen back to $0.77 at the time of writing.
Bloomberg Analyst Predicts Approval Odds for Major Cryptocurrency ETFs
Regarding the multiple cryptocurrency ETF applications currently on the market, Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, who have made accurate predictions on Bit spot ETF and Ethereum spot ETF many times, have also recently made predictions on the approval odds of ETFs for four major cryptocurrencies: SOL, Doge, LTC, and XRP. The author summarizes them as follows:
- Litecoin (90%): LTC has the highest approval probability of 90%, as the SEC has classified it as a Bit fork coin and categorized it as a commodity. However, the two analysts believe that although LTC is most likely to be approved, it may not attract too much capital inflow.
- Doge (75%): As the largest meme coin, Grayscale and Bitwise's 19b-4 filings have been recognized by the SEC, so the approval probability is relatively high.
- Solana (70%): There is a 70% chance of being approved before October 10, 2025, which is also the deadline for the U.S. SEC to make a final decision, as the SEC has currently expressed recognition of Grayscale's 19b-4 filing.
- XRP (65%): Although XRP is an old Altcoin with high market heat, it is still in legal litigation with the SEC, so its current approval probability is relatively low.
In summary, Bloomberg analysts attribute the approval probability of these cryptocurrency ETF products to the friendly attitude of the Trump administration towards cryptocurrencies, as before Trump's return, the approval probability of these cryptocurrency ETFs was still in the single digits. As the review process progresses, the probability of these assets being approved may continue to rise.
