Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $3.13 trillion, with BTC accounting for 60.9825%, which is $1.91 trillion. The stablecoin market capitalization is $223.9 billion, with a recent 7-day increase of 3.08%, of which USDT accounts for 63.46%.
This week, the price of BTC has shown range-bound fluctuations, with the current price at $96,628; ETH has also shown range-bound fluctuations, with the current price at $2,645.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, a small number have increased while the majority have decreased, including: OM with a 7-day increase of 12.92%, VIRTUAL with a 7-day decrease of 41.22%, FARTCOIN with a 7-day decrease of 51.85%, and SPX with a 7-day decrease of 48.72%. The AI agent projects have seen severe declines, returning to where they started.
This week, the net inflow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF was $182.4 million; the net inflow of the US Ethereum spot ETF was $420.4 million.
The "Fear & Greed Index" on February 8th was 44 (lower than the previous week), with the market sentiment being neutral for 6 days and greedy for 1 day this week.

Market Forecast: This week, the crypto market experienced a panic sentiment due to the US government's executive order to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, with a single-day decline of over 20% on the weekend. However, stablecoins have continued to increase, and the growth rate has risen. The US BTC and ETH spot ETFs both saw net inflows. From on-chain observation, short-term funds that entered the market in the past half year have started to withdraw, and whales have entered an accumulation mode. This major decline should be a stage of hands changing, and this period should be cherished. The trading activity of DEXs has also seen a certain decline, and during this stage, it is recommended to hold mainstream coins and adopt a cautious and conservative attitude towards potential tracks.

Understanding the Present

Reviewing the Week's Major Events

1. On February 3rd, Trump signed an order imposing a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, and a 10% tariff on imports from China, which will take effect on Tuesday. Cryptocurrencies showed a risk-averse trend and plummeted, with BTC dropping 8% to $92,798.34. Bitwise's alpha strategy manager Jeff Park said that due to the eventual weakening of the US dollar and US interest rates, the ongoing trade war will be "amazing" for Bitcoin in the long run.

2. On February 5th, according to The New York Times, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is downsizing a special unit that had over 50 lawyers and staff dedicated to handling cryptocurrency-related enforcement actions. Insiders said this is one of the first concrete actions taken by President Trump's administration to promote the growth of cryptocurrencies and "eliminate over-regulation of digital assets".

3. On February 5th, according to Cointelegraph, Republican leaders of House and Senate committees announced the formation of a working group focused on developing a digital asset framework and stablecoin legislation.

4. On February 5th, the Litecoin Official Twitter announced that the NYSE has filed a 19b-4 application with the US SEC to seek to convert its Litecoin (LTC) trust into a spot ETF.

5. On February 6th, according to Barron's, under the support of the Trump administration, the US banking industry is expected to expand its cooperation with cryptocurrencies, and may no longer restrict banks' entry into this field as during the Biden administration. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) plans to amend bank guidance to allow banks to engage in certain crypto activities without prior regulatory approval.

6. On February 6th, Arthur Hayes released a blog post stating that the Bitcoin strategic reserve policy is terrible, as "the fundamental problem with governments hoarding any asset is that they buy and sell assets primarily for political, not financial, interests." This policy may change with political shifts, thereby altering Bitcoin's original trajectory. Therefore, Arthur Hayes still believes Bitcoin will retest $70,000 to $75,000. Only if the Federal Reserve, US Treasury, Japan, etc. print money in some form, or enact specific legislation allowing permissionless crypto innovation, can the current market conditions be improved.

7. On February 7th, according to the New York Post, the potential candidates for Trump's cryptocurrency advisory council have been revealed, including former Kraken general counsel Marco Santori, Ripple co-founder Brad Garlinghouse, podcast host Frank Chaparro, Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, and Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek.

8. On February 8th, according to Reuters, President Trump has informed Republican lawmakers that he plans to announce a reciprocal tariff policy as early as Friday.

Macroeconomic

1. On January 29th, in the first rate decision of 2025, the Bank of Canada cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.00%, in line with market expectations, marking the sixth consecutive meeting with a rate cut, after two previous 50 basis point cuts.

2. On January 30th, the European Central Bank made its first move of the new year, lowering the deposit facility rate by 25BP to 2.75%, in line with market expectations, marking the fourth consecutive 25BP rate cut. The main refinancing rate and the marginal lending rate were lowered from 3.15% and 3.40% to 2.90% and 3.15% respectively.

3. On February 3rd, according to CoinDesk, Coinbase has officially obtained a cryptocurrency registration license from the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), becoming the largest licensed cryptocurrency trading platform in the UK.

4. On February 6th, the Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, lowering the rate from 4.75% to 4.5%, in line with market expectations, marking the third rate cut in this easing cycle.

5. On February 7th, according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, after the release of the US non-farm payroll data tonight, the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in March has decreased from 14.5% to 8.5%, while the probability of no change has increased from 85.5% to 91.5%.

6. On February 8th, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy report: plans to stop balance sheet reduction at an appropriate time.

ETF

According to statistics, during the period from February 3rd to February 7th, the net inflow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF was $182.4 million; as of February 7th, GBTC (Grayscale) has a total outflow of $21.86 billion, currently holding $19.231 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $56.122 billion. The total market value of the US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $115.248 billion.
The net inflow of the US Ethereum spot ETF was $420.4 million.

Envisioning the Future

Event Preview

1. CoinDesk will host Consensus Hong Kong from February 18-20, 2025 in Hong Kong;

2. ETHDenver 2025 will be held from February 23 to March 2, 2025 in Denver, USA.

Project Progress

1. The AI data platform Pundi AI has announced that its token FX will be upgraded to PUNDIAI on February 10, 2025, with the token supply reduced to 1/100;

2. The AI Agent tokenization and trading platform Mars Protocol will begin internal testing on February 14;

3. The Base chain-based open-source software platform Tea Protocol will launch its mainnet on February 14, 2025.

Important Events

1. The UAE SCA has released a draft regulation on the tokenization of securities and commodities, and the public can provide feedback before February 14;

Token Unlocking

1. Cheelee (CHEEL) will unlock 11.85 million tokens on February 10, worth about $93.27 million, accounting for 1.18% of the circulating supply;

2. The Sandbox (SAND) will unlock 187 million tokens on February 14, worth about $68.81 million, accounting for 6.24% of the circulating supply;

3. Sei (SEI) will unlock 224 million tokens on February 15, worth about $48.34 million, accounting for 2.25% of the circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research department of Hotcoin, is committed to providing the cryptocurrency market with detailed and professional analysis. Our goal is to provide clear market insights and practical operational guidance for investors at different levels. Our professional content includes the "Play and Earn Web3" series of tutorials, in-depth analysis of cryptocurrency industry trends, detailed analysis of potential projects, and real-time observation of the market. Whether you are a newcomer exploring the crypto field or a seasoned investor seeking in-depth insights, Hotcoin will be your reliable partner in understanding and grasping market opportunities.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment itself carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors invest based on a full understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.